NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 21st
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 226.0 | Vegas Total | 226.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 112.3 | Implied Team Total | 113.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | George Hill | LeBron James | Jeff Green | Kevin Love | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 24 | 23 | 29 | 19 | 21 | DvP | 9 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | |
DRPM Rat. | 9 | 24 | 23 | 12 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 22 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors picked up a win against the Magic last night and are now five games clear of the second-seeded Celtics. We are looking at a potential second-round playoff matchup, as the Raptors head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. As we all know, this is one of the best matchups for fantasy production. On the season, the Cavaliers are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors have an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the sixth highest of the slate.
Kyle Lowry had a big outing last night against the Magic, but that was aided by DeMar DeRozan sitting out. He is dealing with a thigh bruise, but the Raptors likely opted to rest him in the front end of a back-to-back. I’d be surprised if DeRozan is out again tonight. In a game that features a low spread, Lowry and DeRozan are both on my radar in tournaments. The role players from Toronto have really stepped up this season, but I don’t have much interest in them on the road against the Cavaliers.
Serge Ibaka has seen his minutes spike recently, but it hasn’t led to a boost in fantasy production. Power forward is loaded with options in tonight’s eight-game slate, which makes Ibaka a large-field tournament play at best. Jonas Valanciunas draws an exploitable matchup down low. The Cavaliers only have two true centers on the roster and one of them (Tristan Thompson) is listed as questionable. In his last meeting against Cleveland, Valanciunas scored 35 fantasy points in only 18 minutes of playing time.
Notable Injuries
Fred VanVleet (Questionable)
DeMar DeRozan (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (12 of 16)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Lowry | $7,700 | $7,800 | $14,900 | 35.2 | 0.4 | 32.1 | 0.0 | 1.10 | 22.0% | 24 | 24 | 9 |
DeMar DeRozan | $7,900 | $8,000 | $14,600 | 38.2 | -2.8 | 34.1 | 0.7 | 1.12 | 28.6% | 17 | 23 | 24 |
OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,500 | 12.3 | -6.7 | 20.2 | -4.6 | 0.61 | 10.8% | 28 | 29 | 23 |
Serge Ibaka | $5,400 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 25.1 | -0.3 | 27.4 | 2.8 | 0.92 | 17.0% | 28 | 19 | 12 |
Jonas Valanciunas | $7,500 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 26.8 | 8.4 | 22.6 | 1.0 | 1.18 | 18.7% | 11 | 21 | 19 |
Jakob Poeltl | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 17.3 | -2.7 | 18.3 | -2.1 | 0.94 | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Delon Wright | $4,500 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 19.6 | 6.4 | 20.9 | 5.9 | 0.94 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (DK Cash)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are not going to finish the season where they were hoping, but they need a strong push in the last three weeks to hold off the Pacers for the third seed in the East. Finishing third would delay a matchup against the Raptors until the conference championship. While this isn’t a great matchup on paper, the fact that this game is being played in Cleveland helps. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the third highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
George Hill offers nice value at point guard tonight. He is priced under $4,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he should push for 30 minutes. The matchup isn’t great and the usage hasn’t been very appealing, but he’s worth a look if you need the value. If Rodney Hood is ruled out again, Jordan Clarkson would become an intriguing play in tournaments. Over his last five games, he has averaged 25 minutes and he’s close to fantasy point per minute type of player.
LeBron James continues to post triple-double after triple-double. At this point, he’s a scary fade in any type of format. If comparing him to Giannis Antetokounmpo, I slightly prefer LeBron on DraftKings and Giannis on FanDuel. Even with Kevin Love back in the lineup, Jeff Green logged 40 minutes against the Bucks on Monday night. If Tristan Thompson is ruled out again, we can go right back to the well with Green. Love played 24 minutes in his first game back from injury. I expect that number to go up slightly tonight, as he is coming back from a hand injury. Love is a borderline elite play on DraftKings ($6,400).
Notable Injuries
Kyle Korver (Out)
Larry Nance (Out)
Cedi Osman (Out)
Tristan Thompson (Questionable)
Rodney Hood (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (8 of 16)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Calderon | $3,800 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 15.4 | 7.7 | 0.62 | 11.3% | 7 | 9 | 3 |
George Hill | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 20.1 | -2.4 | 27.1 | 1.5 | 0.74 | 15.8% | 17 | 3 | 22 |
LeBron James | $12,800 | $11,700 | $21,300 | 54.4 | 11.8 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 1.47 | 29.7% | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Jeff Green | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 18.3 | 7.9 | 22.9 | 10.5 | 0.80 | 17.3% | 7 | 6 | 13 |
Kevin Love | $7,300 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 33.4 | 3.0 | 27.9 | -3.2 | 1.20 | 22.1% | 10 | 19 | 18 |
Jordan Clarkson | $4,600 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.1 | -2.5 | 23.5 | 1.9 | 0.98 | 25.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Ante Zizic | $4,000 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 7.4 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 1.12 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (DK), Jeff Green (if Thompson is out), Jordan Clarkson (GPP – if Hood is out)
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (FD), Jeff Green (if Thompson is active), Jordan Clarkson (Cash – if Hood is out), George Hill
Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 213.0 | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 100.5 | Implied Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | Jarell Martin | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 13 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 12 | DvP | 18 | 25 | 15 | 13 | 1 | |
DRPM Rat. | 2 | 26 | 1 | 26 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 18 | 24 | 28 | 9 |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are going to be a difficult team to predict over the next few weeks. I’m still feeling the burn from Tyreke Evans getting ruled out five minutes after lock on Monday night. Memphis has nothing to play for and they draw a difficult matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential. For some odd reason, the Grizzlies’ implied total (100.5 points) is actually higher than their season average, but not high enough that I feel great about targeting them in an eight-game slate.
Tyreke Evans was originally listed as probable for this game and has since been ruled out, which only confirms the fact that we can’t trust the Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is listed as probable, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot until we know that he is active. With Evans out, Andrew Harrison will draw another start at point guard. He played 30 minutes and scored 35 minutes in a spot start on Monday. He’s worth a look in tournaments. With that said, the Grizzlies are double-digit underdogs on the road in a game that they want to lose. If they fall behind early, they have no reason to play their starters big minutes.
Notable Injuries
Tyreke Evans (Out)
Marc Gasol (Probable)
Andrew Harrison (Probable)
Ivan Rabb (Questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.0 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (11 of 16)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (5 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Harrison | $5,800 | $5,100 | $9,400 | 19.1 | 16.1 | 23.4 | 7.4 | 0.82 | 19.2% | 2 | 13 | 2 |
Dillon Brooks | $4,800 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 17.8 | 7.2 | 28.8 | 3.1 | 0.62 | 15.4% | 22 | 18 | 26 |
Jarell Martin | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 16.7 | 6.8 | 21.9 | 5.6 | 0.76 | 14.4% | 9 | 20 | 1 |
JaMychal Green | $6,300 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 27.9 | 3.2 | 0.88 | 16.0% | 10 | 14 | 26 |
Marc Gasol | $8,500 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 37.9 | 0.1 | 33.8 | -0.5 | 1.12 | 23.6% | 5 | 12 | 2 |
Chandler Parsons | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 15.2 | -3.1 | 19.3 | -6.2 | 0.78 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andrew Harrison (GPP)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games and are now tied with the Pacers in the loss column. With a strong finish to the season, Philadelphia could end up hosting a first-round playoff series. They should be able to take care of business in a matchup against the Grizzlies at home. This isn’t a great matchup for fantasy production, but Memphis isn’t exactly putting its best foot forward. The Sixers have an implied total of 112.5 points, which is the fifth highest overall and four points above their season average.
Ben Simmons has played well over his last five games, but is priced at a premium on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the matchup and the potential blowout, I don’t have a ton of interest in Simmons in cash games or tournaments. J.J. Redick minutes have come down since the Sixers acquired Marco Belinelli, but he still offers nice value at a price of $4,700 on FanDuel. Small forward is typically one of the thinner positions in a slate, but that’s not the case tonight. For that reason, Robert Covington is a deep tournament play at best.
The Sixers’ frontcourt doesn’t offer much appeal either. Dario Saric is not priced at a discount, even though his minutes and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction. Ersan Ilyasova grades out as a decent play at his price point, but there are quite a few value options at his position. Joel Embiid is affordable on DraftKings ($9,700), but he draws a difficult matchup against Marc Gasol. On the season, Memphis is ranked first in both efficiency and DvP against centers.
Notable Injuries
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 (5 of 16)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (30 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ben Simmons | $10,100 | $9,000 | $15,200 | 41.7 | 2.0 | 34.6 | -2.2 | 1.21 | 22.9% | 20 | 18 | 22 |
J.J. Redick | $4,700 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 24.9 | -3.1 | 31.0 | -3.6 | 0.80 | 19.5% | 14 | 25 | 18 |
Robert Covington | $6,000 | $5,700 | $10,200 | 27.4 | 2.4 | 32.1 | -1.9 | 0.85 | 15.0% | 8 | 15 | 24 |
Dario Saric | $6,200 | $5,900 | $10,800 | 28.1 | -2.8 | 30.5 | -2.5 | 0.92 | 18.4% | 22 | 13 | 28 |
Joel Embiid | $10,800 | $9,700 | $17,600 | 45.1 | 5.7 | 31.3 | -0.3 | 1.44 | 28.3% | 1 | 1 | 9 |
Marco Belinelli | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,300 | 17.8 | -1.1 | 23.8 | 1.9 | 0.75 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Ersan Ilyasova | $3,800 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 21.3 | -0.4 | 24.9 | -1.7 | 0.86 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – J.J. Redick (FD), Robert Covington (GPP), Joel Embiid (DK)
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 222.5 | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 112.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.9 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Jeremy Lamb | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | D’Angelo Russell | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Jarrett Allen | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 28 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 30 | DvP | 19 | 15 | 25 | 16 | 17 | |
DRPM Rat. | 29 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
Charlotte Hornets
At the time of the All-Star break, I was expecting the Hornets and Pistons to make a run at the playoffs. Unfortunately, both teams seem content with starting their offseason vacations a little early this year. The Hornets have lost eight of their last ten games and are 7.5 games behind the eighth-seeded Bucks. On a positive note, they draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets have an implied total of 112 points, which is five points higher than their season average.
Nicolas Batum is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, which gives a massive boost to Jeremy Lamb. He should draw another start at shooting guard and push for 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Nets. Lamb isn’t as cheap as he was on Monday, but he’s still an elite option on DraftKings ($5,400). Malik Monk should have a bigger role moving forward, but I’d like to see him play 25+ minutes before targeting him in anything other than a large-field tournament. Surprisingly, Kemba Walker has a lower usage rate and a lower FP/min with Batum off the floor this season. While I like the matchup for Walker, he is priced up around the industry.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist did not play well the other night, yet he still logged 28 minutes with Batum out. If he plays 28-30 minutes tonight against the Nets, he should easily reach and exceed value against the Nets. MKG is priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him one of the best value plays of the slate. Marvin Williams and Frank Kamsinky offer nice upside in this matchup, but are rarely players that I force into my lineups. Dwight Howard has averaged 42 fantasy points over his last five games and gets to face a Nets’ defense that is ranked 30th in both efficiency and DvP against centers.
Notable Injuries
Nicolas Batum (Doubtful)
Cody Zeller (Questionable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (3 of 16)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (7 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,700 | $8,700 | $15,700 | 37.4 | -3.9 | 34.8 | 0.7 | 1.08 | 26.7% | 27 | 28 | 29 |
Jeremy Lamb | $6,600 | $5,400 | $10,200 | 23.8 | -3.0 | 24.5 | -1.3 | 0.97 | 21.5% | 8 | 11 | 23 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,600 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.8 | -2.5 | 25.3 | -0.9 | 0.74 | 14.7% | 4 | 12 | 4 |
Marvin Williams | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 18.9 | 1.8 | 25.7 | -0.9 | 0.74 | 13.1% | 29 | 28 | 16 |
Dwight Howard | $8,300 | $8,400 | $15,900 | 37.0 | 5.4 | 30.5 | 1.1 | 1.21 | 19.7% | 30 | 30 | 26 |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,000 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 19.1 | -2.2 | 23.2 | -1.0 | 0.82 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Malik Monk | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.72 | 21.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lamb (DK), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (FD), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Kemba Walker, Marvin Williams
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have arguably been playing their best basketball of the season over the last month of play. While they aren’t in the playoff race, they don’t have a reason to tank since they don’t own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Tonight’s matchup against the Hornets is mediocre, but it helps that the game is being played in Brooklyn. The Nets come into the game with an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the eighth highest on the board and four points above their season average.
The big problem with the Nets is that they are back to playing a deep rotation where everyone sees less than 30 minutes per game. This makes it harder to predict fantasy production. D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert, and Spencer Dinwiddie are all fine fantasy options, but they are cutting into each other’s playing time and production. There are plenty of options in tonight’s eight-game slate, so I’m not going to force any of the Nets’ players into my lineups. I would rather use them as lineup fillers in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Dante Cunningham (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.3 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (6 of 16)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (9 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D’Angelo Russell | $7,400 | $6,900 | $12,200 | 27.9 | 7.7 | 25.8 | 3.7 | 1.08 | 28.9% | 19 | 19 | 21 |
Allen Crabbe | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 22.2 | -0.5 | 29.5 | -2.3 | 0.75 | 17.2% | 21 | 15 | 12 |
DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 26.9 | 0.4 | 29.9 | 0.6 | 0.90 | 18.1% | 26 | 25 | 10 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,300 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 29.1 | 6.4 | 28.0 | 1.3 | 1.04 | 20.7% | 23 | 16 | 15 |
Jarrett Allen | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 18.5 | 1.5 | 19.2 | 3.2 | 0.96 | 14.0% | 13 | 17 | 9 |
Caris LeVert | $6,000 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 1.1 | 0.94 | 21.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,200 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 29.1 | -4.4 | 29.2 | -0.1 | 1.00 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert
New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
New York Knicks | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 216.5 | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 102.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Emmanuel Mudiay | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Michael Beasley | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Bam Adebayo | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 4 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 8 | DvP | 25 | 17 | 22 | 15 | 11 | |
DRPM Rat. | 23 | 20 | 9 | 14 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 18 | 22 | 28 | 29 |
New York Knicks
The Knicks are one of the many teams with nothing to play for at this point of the season. To make matters worse, they are playing their veterans and their young players, but it’s rare that anyone is seeing 30 minutes in a single game. The Knicks are similar to the Nets other than the fact that they want to lose. They draw a difficult matchup against the Heat, who are ranked fourth in points allowed per game this season. In addition to being double-digit underdogs on the road, the Knicks have the third lowest implied total of the slate.
Emmanuel Mudiay has been upgraded to probable, which lowers the interest that I would have had for Trey Burke. In this matchup, both are easy fades in all formats. Tim Hardaway has played well in back-to-back games, yet he didn’t log a single fourth quarter minute. He’s still viable in tournaments, but an easy avoid in cash games. I was hoping Michael Beasley would get a full complement of minutes with Lance Thomas out, but that didn’t come to fruition. Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn continue to dominate on a per-minute basis, but they are too volatile to trust in any contest outside of a large-field tournament. Basically, the Knicks are a mess and it’s not a bad idea to avoid them completely.
Notable Injuries
Lance Thomas (Out)
Emmanuel Mudiay (Probable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (14 of 16)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (26 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emmanuel Mudiay | $4,600 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 17.2 | 3.5 | 19.6 | 4.6 | 0.88 | 23.1% | 4 | 4 | 23 |
Courtney Lee | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 22.4 | -9.9 | 31.0 | -7.6 | 0.72 | 16.2% | 8 | 13 | 20 |
Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.2 | -0.5 | 32.9 | 1.3 | 0.86 | 22.2% | 11 | 1 | 9 |
Michael Beasley | $5,700 | $5,900 | $11,300 | 23.0 | 6.5 | 21.7 | 6.6 | 1.06 | 23.0% | 13 | 7 | 14 |
Enes Kanter | $5,900 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 30.4 | -6.1 | 25.4 | -6.1 | 1.20 | 19.0% | 7 | 8 | 11 |
Kyle O’Quinn | $5,300 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 20.7 | 9.1 | 17.4 | 3.9 | 1.19 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Trey Burke | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,200 | 18.8 | 1.8 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 1.11 | 26.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (GPP), Michael Beasley (GPP)
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
The Heat have won six of their last ten games and will likely end up as the seventh or eighth seed in the East. While it doesn’t seem like a big difference, I would much rather face a hobbled Celtics’ team in the first round than I would the Raptors. Miami draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency. The Heat have an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the third highest on the board and a whopping 10.7 points above their season average.
Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside have already been ruled out of tonight’s game, but they have missed the last few, so we know what to expect from Miami. The main issue here is the potential blowout. I know blowouts are hard to predict in the NBA, but it’s a little easier to spot them at this point of the season. Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson both grade out as solid plays at point guard, but they don’t quite crack my top five point-per-dollar targets at the position. Josh Richardson minutes have been all over the map, but he has played at least 30 in back-to-back games and now gets to face a poor Knicks’ defense at a price only $5,300 on DraftKings.
Wayne Ellington is one of the top value plays at shooting guard tonight. He should play around 30 minutes regardless of the game’s outcome. James Johnson had one of the best games of his career on Monday night against the Nuggets. He has really shined with Whiteside out of the lineup and the sites have been slow to adjust his salary. He remains an elite play on FanDuel. Kelly Olynyk has averaged 38 fantasy points over his last five games and is always on my short list of potential tournament targets. Last but not least, Bam Adebayo is still dirt cheap on FanDuel ($4,300) and he is now listed as a center. There are plenty of plays to like from Miami, so I don’t mind mixing and matching them throughout your lineups.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 10.7 (1 of 16)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goran Dragic | $7,000 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 30.5 | 0.5 | 31.9 | 0.4 | 0.96 | 25.3% | 16 | 25 | 30 |
Tyler Johnson | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 22.5 | -0.9 | 28.9 | -1.3 | 0.78 | 17.7% | 12 | 17 | 18 |
Josh Richardson | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 26.8 | -0.1 | 33.4 | -5.9 | 0.80 | 16.8% | 29 | 22 | 22 |
James Johnson | $5,500 | $6,200 | $12,700 | 25.4 | 14.1 | 26.3 | 3.4 | 0.97 | 18.4% | 10 | 15 | 28 |
Bam Adebayo | $4,300 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 18.6 | 3.3 | 20.3 | 6.0 | 0.92 | 14.8% | 13 | 11 | 29 |
Kelly Olynyk | $6,000 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 23.7 | 14.6 | 23.6 | 4.8 | 1.01 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Wayne Ellington | $4,200 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 18.1 | 4.7 | 26.7 | 5.6 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), James Johnson (FD), Kelly Olynyk (GPP), Bam Adebayo (FD), Wayne Ellington (FD)
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (FD), James Johnson (DK), Kelly Olynyk (Cash), Bam Adebayo (DK), Wayne Ellington (DK), Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 219.5 | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -9.0 | Vegas Spread | 9.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 114.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Cameron Payne | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Paul Zipser | Cristiano Felicio | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 21 | 28 | 21 | 22 | 22 | DvP | 26 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 18 | |
DRPM Rat. | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 26 | 19 | 3 | 11 |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets picked a poor time for a two-game losing streak. After losing five of their last ten games, they are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture in the West. Luckily, there are still three weeks to go, so they certainly still have a shot. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Nuggets have an implied total of 114.3 points, which is the highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
Before we get into the picks, I want to point out that the Nuggets’ minutes and fantasy production over the last five games are inflated thanks to a double-overtime game against the Heat. Jamal Murray has played well recently, but his price is a little too rich for my blood, especially in an eight-game slate. Will Barton should play minutes in the mid to upper 30s with Gary Harris out. While Justin Holiday is a good defender, he doesn’t play many minutes these days. As a whole, the Bulls are ranked 29th in efficiency against shooting guards. I typically don’t play Wilson Chandler very often, but he should also play minutes in the mid-30s in this favorable matchup. You can certainly do a lot worse at small forward.
Paul Millsap is no longer on a minute restriction, as evidenced by the 45 minutes he played against the Heat (35 in regulation). He has yet to have that breakout game that we’ve been waiting for and perhaps it will come tonight against the Bulls, who don’t defend the paint or rebound well. Nikola Jokic is my favorite target at center tonight on DraftKings ($9,600). His price is reasonable and the Nuggets will play him as many minutes as he can handle over the next few weeks. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll square off against Cristiano Felicio, who is one of the worst low-post defenders in basketball. I should also note that the Bulls are ranked 20th in rebounding differential this season.
Notable Injuries
Gary Harris (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 109.5 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (4 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamal Murray | $7,500 | $7,100 | $13,400 | 27.2 | 6.6 | 30.8 | 4.1 | 0.88 | 21.2% | 22 | 21 | 7 |
Will Barton | $7,700 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 30.4 | -0.8 | 32.6 | -0.4 | 0.93 | 19.8% | 29 | 28 | 4 |
Wilson Chandler | $6,100 | $5,600 | $10,600 | 21.6 | 10.1 | 31.4 | 5.9 | 0.69 | 13.7% | 25 | 21 | 20 |
Paul Millsap | $6,600 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 30.4 | -6.3 | 29.0 | 2.1 | 1.05 | 19.9% | 27 | 22 | 22 |
Nikola Jokic | $10,500 | $9,600 | $17,400 | 42.3 | 9.7 | 31.8 | 3.6 | 1.33 | 22.1% | 23 | 22 | 29 |
Mason Plumlee | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 21.0 | -3.8 | 20.4 | -2.7 | 1.03 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Will Barton (DK), Paul Millsap (GPP), Nikola Jokic (DK)
Secondary Plays – Will Barton (FD), Paul Millsap (Cash), Nikola Jokic (FD), Jamal Murray, Wilson Chandler
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have won four of the their last ten games, which is a bit surprising since they own their first round pick in the upcoming draft. They draw a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Nuggets, who are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential. Despite missing a number of players, the Bulls come into the game with an implied total of 105.3 points, which is two points higher than their season average.
Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, which paves the way for Cameron Payne once again. He didn’t have his best game against the Knicks the other night, but he has averaged a fantasy point per minute on the season. He has an elite matchup against the Nuggets and should push for 30+ minutes, making him my top point-per-dollar option at point guard in the entire slate. Denzel Valentine struggled against New York, but we’ve seen the upside that he brings to the table. I’m willing to go right back to the well in tournaments.
Antonio Blakeney has struggled with his shot this season, but he is logging close to 25 minutes a night. As long as he can suit up tonight (he’s currently listed as questionable), I’ll have some interest in him as a cheap tournament flier. Cristiano Felicio and Bobby Portis have both shown upside at their respective price points, but Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are two of the best low-post defenders in basketball. I would much rather target the bigs from Miami or even from Denver.
Notable Injuries
Kris Dunn (Out)
Zach LaVine (Out)
Lauri Markkanen (Out)
Antonio Blakeney (Questionable)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (9 of 16)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cameron Payne | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 20.8 | 2.9 | 20.9 | 4.0 | 1.00 | 20.7% | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Justin Holiday | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 24.5 | -10.7 | 32.9 | -15.4 | 0.74 | 16.2% | 10 | 5 | 26 |
Denzel Valentine | $6,000 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 22.5 | 6.2 | 27.4 | -1.9 | 0.82 | 17.0% | 13 | 17 | 19 |
Paul Zipser | $4,000 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 0.63 | 13.4% | 24 | 23 | 3 |
Cristiano Felicio | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 15.7 | 8.8 | 0.68 | 11.2% | 11 | 18 | 11 |
Bobby Portis | $7,000 | $6,700 | $11,900 | 25.4 | 11.2 | 22.3 | 5.0 | 1.14 | 23.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
David Nwaba | $4,200 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 17.8 | 1.6 | 22.6 | -1.6 | 0.79 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Antonio Blakeney | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 16.1 | 7.5 | 0.77 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |