NBA Preview Pt.2: SG, SF and Site Scoring

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2012-10-14 18:16:07

One of the weakest shooting guard and small forward classes in years means that you will likely need to either splurge on the small number of studs available or dig deep to find sleeper value here. In the second leg of our NBA preview I will break down the SG and SF position and then transition into a site-scoring comparison to help you see where value lies on each daily fantasy site. We’ve also adjusted the schedule a bit for the NBA previews.

Part 1: PGs and FanDuel Value Plays
Part 2: SGs and Site Scoring Comparison
Part 3: Coaches to Avoid(thanks to cb35 for the recommendation), PFs and Centers
Part 4: Fantasy Points Against By Position Stats from last season + Projected Starters opening night

Shooting Guard Rankings 2012

Top 5 Shooting Guards

• Kobe Bryant – Age is just a number but that number keeps growing for the Black Mamba. He still tops the rankings overall but with a much improved cast around him I think we see a slight decrease in his minutes this year. I’m also very interested to see how he handles having a true point guard playing along side him. He has rarely had a PG in the same starting lineup who likes to control the game as much as Nash. Many think this upgrades Kobe, but he’s not a guy who needs his shot created by others, he creates his own better than anyone else.

• Dwyane Wade – He got his second ring but was pretty much carried there by LeBron. I wouldn’t touch Wade in a seasonal format because of his extensive injury history but with daily we don’t have that concern. His minutes per game will drop this year but his production should still be good enough to keep him in the #2 spot for shooting guards. Biggest concern is the inconsistencies he had last year, which made him a DFS nightmare.

• Monta Ellis – Jennings and Ellis should get on the same page this season. Yes they both love to get their shots but wasn’t Ellis in that same situation in Golden State with Curry? He thrived there and he should thrive in Milwaukee as well. Look for the Bucks to be much improved this season behind 20-25 points per game from Monta.

• James Harden – Most people have Harden at 3rd and Ellis behind him but I can’t bring myself to loving Harden in daily formats yet. He has big game potential but he comes off the bench and while he still plays big minutes he spends most of them splitting shots with Westbrook and Durant.

• Andre Iguodala – The move to Denver should be a breath of fresh air for one of the most talented players in this SG class. Let’s compare him to the Rajon Rondo description I used in the PGs preview. He might be the most talented SG available but there are too many red flags to put him above 5th. He is inconsistent and has been known to disappear for long stretches in games. Denver’s massive rotation is also a concern, but if a few of the Nuggets injury-prone role players go down again look for Iggy to log big minutes and thrive.

Shooting Guards Who Will Surprise in 2012

• Courtney Lee – I’ll add in a provision here that this is just until Avery Bradley returns, then I have no idea how the minutes will be divided for the Celtics between Lee, Bradley, Rondo and Jason Terry. But for now Lee should offer great value. The Celtics are harping on keeping Pierce and Garnett healthy by limiting their minutes heavily. Lee will likely spend 30-35 minutes per game playing the 2 and 3 spots and thriving as a more athletic spot up shooter with Rajon Rondo. Avery Bradley is an offensive liability who became daily fantasy relevant simply by running the fast break and hitting open shots with Rondo last season. Lee will do the same and thrive in that role.

• Brandon Roy – At first I would have put him in here just because you hope the guy can come back and succeed because he’s flat out had the worst luck. But then I started paying closer attention and all signs point to him actually almost being back to normal. He looks GOOD right now and that’s very surprising. He gets to ball out in Minnesota where he doesn’t have to be the center of attention and can let KLove do the heavy lifting. Roy is backkkk baby.

• O.J. Mayo – Mayo leaves Memphis for more minutes in Dallas. Tony Allen should also be a good option for the Griz now but Mayo is another guy with special talent who can light up a fantasy scoreboard every once in awhile. A starting role and change of scenery could finally push Mayo into the level of top notch shooting guards.

Rookie To Watch

• Bradley Beal – I’m taking the easy way out on this one but Beal is definitely the cream of the rookie SG class. In Washington he’ll get good minutes and plenty of chances to put his stamp on the game. Don’t overthink this one, none of the other rookie SGs offer a ton of potential. Dion Waiters and Jeremy Lamb might develop later in the season but Beal should impact the game fastest.

Small Forward Rankings for DFS

Top 5 Small Forwards

• LeBron James – Even though he will be starting at the #4 PF slot he is still a small forward. Not much to say, he’s gonna have a massive price tag every night and you just need to try to pick and choose what nights LeBron will offer value against that tag. My best advice with him is roll with the streaks. He still goes through lulls a few times every year and hits stretches of being red hot.

• Kevin Durant – Durant is a beast for sites like FanDuel that give you one point for every major offensive statistic and don’t detract for missed shots. He won’t fill out a stat sheet with a ton of boards or assists but he will rack up points in bunches. Similar to LeBron just try to pick and choose the best nights for Durant to offer value.

• Josh Smith – Listed as a SF here because of the style he plays. Excited to see how the return of Horford and a revamped Hawks team will affect Smith. They wanted to change their image but they kind of just went out and got a lesser version of Joe Johnson after trading him(Lou Williams). Regardless, Smith is a double-double machine and always pricey.

• Rudy Gay – Gay has been right on the edge of becoming an elite player for a few years now. The talent surrounding him has undoubtedly slowed him and he still has a knack for making really bad decisions on the court. But in a weak overall class of small forwards, Gay has some of the biggest upside and can pick up a couple of steals a game as well. Biggest weakness is his inability to drop dimes(1.9 APPG last season).

• Carmelo Anthony – Carmelo’s 2011-12 season was the most up and down roller coaster I’ve seen in a long time. First he was the issue standing in the way of Linsanity taking over. Then he was an absolute animal who couldn’t be stopped on any given night. Regardless, he’s always gonna be a guy who takes a ton of shots, shoots an average percentage and racks up mostly points only. Similar to Durant above, he offers the most value on sites that don’t detract for MFG or add bonuses to assists.

Small Forwards Who Will Surprise in 2012

• Ersan Ilyasova – The man is a STAT SHEET STUFFER plain and simple. When he got good minutes last season he was a must-have on daily fantasy rosters. Unfortunately, he was impossible to predict and that made him a DFS nightmare. Very inconsistent was the biggest knock on Ilyasova in 2011-12 but I think he finally rights that ship in 2012-13 and averages close to a double-double for the Bucks.

• Evan Turner – Turner finally should be starting at the small forward position, but may be listed as a SG for awhile on some sites. Either way, Turner will get enough minutes on a rebuilt 76ers team that he will actually be able to put up good numbers this season. When Bynum returns he will suck in defenders, leaving Turner open on the wing. He also has game-changer talent where he can take over games on any given night.

• Jeff Green – Paul Pierce will play very limited minutes throughout the regular season, leaving time for Green to fill in at both the SF and PF positions. He’s coming off a 2011-12 season where he sat out the entire year with a heart condition, but being in Boston I have had the chance of seeing his new mentality towards life first-hand and he finally looks to be playing up to the potential that once made him the 5th overall pick. Learning how to play the game behind Kevin Garnett doesn’t hurt either.

Rookie To Watch

• Harrison Barnes – He was once the most recruited high-school talent in the land. He was then a sizeable disappointment at UNC. But he’s stocked with talent and in a position to pass Brandon Rush for the starting SF job in Golden State. I’ve always thought Barnes game translates better to the NBA, much like Austin Rivers, so I can forgive his issues in college. But of the SFs in this rookie class, I think Barnes has the best opportunity to be a daily fantasy gem. Kidd-Gilchrist is a good player but I don’t see the same ceiling I see with Barnes. So in the rankings, Kidd-Gilchrist is slightly ahead of Barnes but Barnes can easily pass him this season.

Site Scoring Comparison

Category
Points	1	1	1	1	1	1
Assists	1	1.5	1	1	1.75	1.25
Rebounds	1	1.25	1	1	1.25	1.25
Steals	2	2	2	2	2	2
Blocks	2	2	2	2	2	2
Turnovers	(-1)	(-1)	(-1)	(-1)	(-1)	(-1)
MFG	0	(-.5)	0	(-.25)	0	0
MFT	0	(-.5)	0	0	(-1)	0
3PT-FG	0	0	0	4	0	0

• FanDuel’s scoring system is straightforward and heavily favors pure scorers such as Carmelo Anthony. With no reduction for missed shots and no added bonus to all around players who pass and rebound, scorers reign supreme on FD.

• DraftStreet, StarStreet and FantasyFeud put much of their importance on 5-tool players. Added points for assists and rebounds make all around players much more valuable there. On DS specifically, big men get a huge bump up. Big men are slightly reduced on FantasyFeud because of the (-1) for missed free throws. Point Guards also get a bump up on FF because they get .25 more fantasy points for each assist.

• For StarStreet, the even distribution for rebounds and assists(which are both valued higher than points) leaves you with options as far as investing in big men who can bound or passers who can dish out dimes. Rebounds are easier to predict though, so that may be the safer option.

• DraftDay gives you an extra point for a 3-pointer so finding sharp shooters is key. They do reduce for missed field goals by -.25 points though, so you need to be looking for guys who shoot better than 25% from the arc, mathematically, to make up the difference in missed field goal reductions to three pointer bonuses.