NBA Preview Pt. 3: PFs, Centers and Coaches to Avoid
Welcome back to another edition of our NBA Preview. In this edition, I break down the big boys on the court similar to how I have broken down the PG, SG and Small Forward spots so far. I’ll rank the top 30-40 players at each the power forward and center position, then talk about the Top-5 guys, a breakout player for 2012-13 and then a rookie to watch for. The article then takes a sharp turn and discusses some coaches to avoid in daily fantasy basketball.
Here’s the schedule for the NBA Preview Articles:
- Part 1: Point Guards and FanDuel Lineups
- Part 2: Shooting Guards, Small Forwards and Site Scoring Comparison
- Part 3: Power Forwards, Centers, and Coaches to Avoid
- Part 4: Important Stats + Strategy for Daily Fantasy Basketball
- Part 5: Opening Night Starters and Fun Facts
Power Forwards
| Rank | Player | Rank | Player | Rank | Player |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Love | 14 | Amare Stoudemire | 27 | Channing Frye |
| 2 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 15 | Kris Humphries | 28 | Antawn Jamison |
| 3 | Josh Smith | 16 | Carlos Boozer | 29 | Drew Gooden |
| 4 | Blake Griffin | 17 | Glen Davis | 30 | Elton Brand |
| 5 | Dirk Nowitzki | 18 | Kevin Garnett | 31 | Jason Thompson |
| 6 | David Lee | 19 | Luis Scola | 32 | Al Harrington |
| 7 | Serge Ibaka | 20 | J.J. Hickson | 33 | Gustavo Ayon |
| 8 | Pau Gasol | 21 | Derrick Favors | 34 | Patrick Patterson |
| 9 | Chris Bosh | 22 | Tim Duncan | 35 | Jared Sullinger |
| 10 | Anthony Davis | 23 | David West | 36 | Markieff Morris |
| 11 | Paul Millsap | 24 | Tristan Thompson | 37 | Byron Mullens |
| 12 | Zach Randolph | 25 | Spencer Hawes | ||
| 13 | Kenneth Faried | 26 | Brandon Bass |
Top-5 Power Forwards
- Kevin Love – Not much of a fight for #1 here. KLove continues to record double-double after double-double. His remarkable consistency makes him a great play on any night. The Wolves are gonna be legit this season with KLove leading the way.
- LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge struggled with injuries a season ago but is the key to a TrailBlazers team that has plenty of talent. He’s an absolute animal on the glass and can score 30 on any given night. Keep an eye out for any missed games throughout the season, as he was a bit of a nightmare in 2011-12 with late scratches.
- Josh Smith – The ultimate all-around player, Smith was also listed as a SF in my Part 2 Preview. He stuffs stat sheets and is a double-double machine. Pick and choose your matchups with him though, as he tends to struggle against defenses who are willing to give him open jump shots. He’s at his best when he can get inside and get out on the fast break.
- Blake Griffin – Blake had the offseason knee surgery that has many fans concern but as I’ve said before, injuries don’t really matter to us in daily fantasy because we typically know who’s starting or sitting. The issue with the knee problems for Blake is whether or not they will affect his athleticism. If he doesn’t have the same explosiveness as he did before surgery then stay away from a high price tag guy, especially on sites where missed free throws are a deduction.
- Dirk Nowitzki – Nowitzki is living on the very edge of the Top-5 right now. After a championship hangover season in Dallas last year, Dirk and the new look Mavs could easily come together and offer tons of value to daily fantasy players. While he’s older, he’s never been one to rely on speed and/or any athleticism to score. Dirk holds the #5 slot for now but David Lee is knocking RIGHT behind him.
Power Forward Who’ll Surprise in 2012
- Kenneth Faried – Not that he wasn’t really good in 2011-12, but I think he takes the next step this season. I fully expect Faried to rack double-doubles up without Al Harrington behind him on the roster anymore and play big time minutes, even for a Denver team that loves to roll with an incredibly deep bench.
Rookie PF to Watch For
- Anthony Davis – A little bit of a cop out here, but Anthony Davis has to be the guy to look for out of this rookie class. I’ve always been impressed with the way he gets blocks and keeps it inbounds as well. Much like the greatest shot blocker of all-time, Bill Russell once did. Davis needs to shave his unibrow, but should transition immediately into the NBA game.
Centers
| Rank | Player | Rank | Player | Rank | Player | Rank | Player |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dwight Howard | 11 | Joakim Noah | 21 | Marcus Camby | 31 | Omer Asik |
| 2 | Al Jefferson | 12 | Brook Lopez | 22 | Bismack Biyombo | 32 | Kendrick Perkins |
| 3 | Andrew Bynum | 13 | Andrea Bargnani | 23 | DeAndre Jordan | 33 | Meyers Leonard |
| 4 | DeMarcus Cousins | 14 | Andrew Bogut | 24 | Samuel Dalembert | 34 | Andrew Nicholson |
| 5 | Al Horford | 15 | Tyson Chandler | 25 | Andre Drummond | 35 | Zaza Pachulia |
| 6 | Marc Gasol | 16 | Nene Hilario | 26 | Tiago Splitter | 36 | Brendan Haywood |
| 7 | Roy Hibbert | 17 | JaVale McGee | 27 | Emeka Okafor | 37 | Chuck Hayes |
| 8 | Greg Monroe | 18 | Chris Kaman | 28 | Ekpe Udoh | 38 | Enes Kanter |
| 9 | Marcin Gortat | 19 | Spencer Hawes | 29 | Jonas Valanciunas | 39 | Robin Lopez |
| 10 | Anderson Varejao | 20 | Nikola Pekovic | 30 | DeJuan Blair | 40 | Timofey Mozgov |
Top-5 Centers
- Dwight Howard – Howard tops my rankings because, when healthy, he is far and away the best center in the game. A lot of concerns around his back coming into the year and whether or not he will gel immediately in LA. Here’s my best answer to anyone who thinks the Lakers will struggle like the Heat did early on trying to combine egos. Dwight Howard is a dominant center, they fit in anywhere. No one on the Lakers needs to adjust their game around him significantly. Dwade and LeBron played the exact same style so those early issues were foreseeable. Anyways, in daily formats, Dwight is #1.
- Al Jefferson – For the past year or two, I’ve been waiting for Big Al to officially break out and become an animal at the Center position. I’ve given up on that pipe dream and am happy to say he is going to be a 20 and 10 guy almost every night. He’s as consistent as they come and has a high ceiling. So much value in Jefferson in daily fantasy across all sites because he’s an above average free throw shooter as well.
- Andrew Bynum – He won’t be available to start the season but I think the move to Philly overall will push him to become a more consistent player. When he was on last season, there was almost no one better. When he was off, he could be outplayed by Nene. He gets to play with an up and coming PG as well in Jrue Holiday, and I like the way they should fit together. Big things from Bynum this year.
- DeMarcus Cousins – Similar to Bynum, Cousins seemed to be a little bipolar last season. Up and down throughout the year, much like the Kings team itself. Another year of growth for Sacramento should mean improved play across the board. I definitely see this as the ‘deciding’ year for this Kings squad, with a chance for them to make the next step and steal a playoff spot. Cousins will be key in that chase.
- Al Horford – Don’t forget about the other Al at the center spot, Horford. He was phenomenal in his return during the playoffs last year and should be hungry to get back on the court for the tip off of 2012-13. He’s a stat sheet stuffer who is also consistent, and for me that takes the #5 spot easily over a guy like Marc Gasol who’s ceiling is relatively low and a guy like Hibbert who gets lost on the court at times.
Centers Who’ll Surprise in 2012
- Anderson Varejao – Not as much of a surprise as a return from injury, but at least early in the season I guarantee most people forget he was a monster before getting hurt last year. Double doubles all day and maybe the best pound for pound rebounder in the NBA. He is healthy again and with Kyrie running the point I fully expect Varejao to continue using his scrappy style to rack up fantasy points. It won’t be pretty but he’ll pay off.
Rookie Center to Watch For
- Meyers Leonard – The TrailBlazers 11th overall pick from this season’s draft is a hustle player with a lot of raw talent that needs to be worked out. He does have the potential to become an elite center down the road but at least or now you will probably see him as a mix of Nene and Marcin Gortat. He will scrap a lot and pick up cheap fantasy points on the glass and he can score too. I doubt he blows up off the bat but with J.J. Hickson at center for the Blazers, wait on an injury or two then jump all over Leonard early when he fills in.
Coaches/Teams to Avoid
I have compiled a list of the Top-5 Coaches at ruining daily fantasy rosters with odd decision making and an overuse of their bench. The 2012-13 season should see some more consistency than last year, because the schedule won’t be as condensed, but regardless the 5 coaches listed below are more trouble than they are worth so you should steer clear in daily fantasy basketball, where minutes are KING.
1) Greg Popovich – San Antonio Spurs
The king of last minute scratches, random minute assignments and unpredictability. Great NBA coach, but run for the hills when it comes to Spurs players and daily fantasy. The Spurs averaged the most bench minutes in the NBA last season at 21 MPG.
2) Kevin McHale – Houston Rockets
13 different players started at least one game in 2012, with 15 guys averaging double-digit minutes in games they were on the roster. Not one player averaged more than 31 MPG. Those are not figures you want to hear when selecting DFS players.
3) Frank Vogel – Indiana Pacers
12 players were involved in over 40 games last season for the Pacers AND averaged double-digit minutes. Similar to the Rockets, only 2 players averaged more than 30 MPG. Their starting lineup was relatively consistent but the style of play lends itself to having average efforts from all 5 players on the floor. This can be seen by having 6 players average double-digit points last year.
4) Rick Carlisle – Dallas Mavericks
They ranked 2nd in bench minutes last season, with 20.6 per game. Outside of Dirk and Terry, no one averaged more than 15 points per game. In fact, 9 players averaged between 5 and 11 points per game. They also had 11 players involved in at least 50 games and average over 10 minutes in their time.
5) Scott Skiles – Milwaukee Bucks
Coming in at 9th in bench minutes, Scott Skiles was a daily fantasy nightmare for a number of reasons last year. My biggest beef with Skiles was the constant Ilyasova and Gooden dilemma. One of them would explode almost every night based on who got more minutes, but you never knew who would get them. The same can be said about Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Delfino. They also had 10 players average more than 20 minutes per game in 2012, which is absurd.