NBA Starting 5: Monday, January 25th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at one of my favorite tools: the NBA Trending Stats Watch. We’ll use FanDuel pricing and in particular will look at the “MIN” and “FPTS” tab to see who has seen a recent bump in minutes and fantasy production. I also like to use this tool in conjunction with the Defense vs Position Tool to see which players have the combination of elevated minutes and production to go with a great matchup.
Point Guard: Emmanuel Mudiay – $5,200
Let’s start by looking at minutes:
It looks like Beno Udrih could be returning tonight which will put a dent in Tyler Johnson’s minutes. Of the remaining names on this list, the guys that jump out to me are Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lin, and Emmanuel Mudiay. The Hornets have played two overtime games, which inflates Walker’s minutes, but he was already seeing a big uptick due to all of the Hornets’ injuries, while Lin’s status is more dependent on the availability of Nicolas Batum. With Jameer Nelson out, Mudiay has started the past four games and has averaged 33 MPG. Nelson is doubtful for this one so Mudiay should be locked into a similar workload.
Let’s see who has seen a boost in fantasy production.
UPDATE – Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb have been declared out, so Jeremy Lin becomes another great value option at PG along with Mudiay.
On the high end, Kemba Walker and Stephen Curry have really elevated their game, and are attractive targets tonight. In particular, Kemba draws an elite matchup with the Kings and ripped them earlier this season for 39 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists in an overtime win. Mudiay has also taken advantage of his recent boost in playing time as he’s averaging 28 FD PPG over the past three games, which is 5 points above his season average and also over the 5x value that we want on FD. He makes a nice value option to pair with a Kemba Walker or Stephen Curry.
Shooting Guard: Avery Bradley – $5,600 and James Harden – $10,000
Again let’s start by seeing who is seeing a recent minutes boost.
Josh Richardson is in the same boat as Tyler Johnson in that the return of Beno Udrih as well as Dwyane Wade will put a big dent in their minutes. Victor Oladipo has a one-game sample size, so the most interesting player on this list to me is Avery Bradley. He’s averaging 35 MPG over his past four games, as well as 36 MPG over the past three weeks. That is very secure minute volume at his mid-range price point, and the matchup is there against a Washington team that struggles to guard wings.
Now, let’s look at who has been pouring in increased fantasy production recently.
You’ll notice that Avery Bradley also checks in on this list as he’s translated his minutes bump into increased production. His price also provides some savings to potentially spend up at the other SG position for James Harden. He’s averaging 52.75 FD PPG over the past week, and has elevated his game with Dwight Howard out. Howard seems doubtful to play tonight, and the matchup against a bad Pelicans’ defense is ideal.
Small Forward: Shabazz Muhammad – $4,200
I’m liking the potential for a Kawhi Leonard bounce back tonight, and Lebron James is also on the slate. Neither checks on either of the below graphs, so let’s look for some value to potentially pair with a Kawhi or LeBron.
Looking at the above minutes tab, Shabazz Muhammad jumps off the list. He’s averaging 11 more MPG over his season average of 20, and has averaged 27 MPG over the past three weeks. His coach just came out and said he’s earning more minutes, so his minutes are becoming more secure. He’ll still come off the bench but that could be a good thing tonight to prevent early foul trouble against LeBron. Justise Winslow and Corey Brewer also loom as potential value options depending on the status of Luol Deng and Dwight Howard.
As we see from the above “FPTS” Shabazz’s increased minutes have translated into increased fantasy production. He is scoring dependent but he’s averaged close to 20 FD PPG over the past three weeks, and is averaging 23 FD PPG this week, which is well over 5x salary on FD. He fared well against Cleveland earlier this year with 22 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists in 26 minutes.
Power Forward: Josh Smith – $3,900
This position is similar to the SF position in that the high end plays like Anthony Davis, Paul Millsap and Chris Bosh aren’t showing up. Each are in quality spots tonight and are definitely on the fantasy radar so we’ll look for some value to potentially pair with them.
Looking at the recent minutes, the following names jump out as potential value plays: Aaron Gordon, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, and potentially Darrell Arthur. Gordon has recently stepped in the starting lineup, but does draw a tough matchup the Grizzlies frontcourt. Meanwhile, the Rockets have wasted no time in plugging Josh Smith into the rotation. He was productive off the bench last year for Houston, and with Dwight Howard out, he’s played 22 MPG in his first two games. I’m not normally a big fan of Marvin Williams, as he typically lacks upside, but the Hornets are very banged up on the interior, and he’s averaged 33 MPG over the past week. Typically, I’ve been interested in any player that will log 30 minutes of playing time against Sacramento. Finally, Arthur has recently seen solid playing time off the bench, and stepped into the starting lineup for Kenneth Faried last game. Faried is questionable for this one, so Arthur could potentially grab another start.
Based on the above chart, we can see that Josh Smith has really put his minutes to use. He’s been a volatile option over his career, but he’s also a player that brings big upside as he can stuff the stat sheet. He’s still dirt cheap at just $3,900, and with Howard doubtful, he could see some time at center tonight. The matchup is ideal against a Pelicans’ defense that ranks near the bottom of the NBA in most categories.
Center
Center is very interesting tonight as we have an elite option in DeMarcus Cousins as well as some solid value options. Let’s start again with the minutes.
DeMarcus Cousins is on another planet right now and he’s averaging close to 38 MPG over the past week. As evidenced by the past week, Boogie has 60 FD point upside when he’s getting those type of minutes. With the way he’s playing and the recent minutes bump, he’s a very tough fade right now. However, there are some value options that are also getting a big minutes bump in Spencer Hawes and Willie Cauley-Stein. With Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller out, Hawes has stepped into the lineup and averaged almost 27 MPG, which is a bump of 9 minutes. The matchup against the Kings is ideal offensively tonight, but the question will be if he can stay out of foul trouble guarding Boogie. Staying in Sacramento, Willie Cauley-Stein has re-entered the starting lineup and has averaged 31 MPG, which is a huge minutes bump. Keep an eye on the status of Rudy Gay as Willie’s minutes become very secure if he sits, since it will prevent the ability of the Kings’ to go small.
Now onto the “FPTS” tab.
Both Willie Cauley-Stein and Cousins have really put their minutes to bump to use as they’ve been ultra productive this week. Boogie is averaging right near 60 FD PPG, which is insane, and should absolutely feast on a depleted Charlotte interior. He’s a very tough fade, but Willie Cauley-Stein has averaged 30 FD points this week, which is 7x value. He draws the same plus matchup against the depleted Charlotte interior and allows for a totally different roster construction than lineups with Boogie. Hawes has been solid averaging 20 FD PPG this week, but he falls behind the King’s big men. Finally, Marcin Gortat also makes an appearance on both lists and faces a Boston interior that can be exploited. I’m not sure mid-range is the way to go at center, but he should be low owned and is an intriguing option if you’re going with a balanced roster.