NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 12
Hopefully everyone had a happy Thanksgiving, or at least decided against fading Antonio Brown. As we turn our attention toward the weekend’s games, with pauses for the best sandwich of the year, we find a narrowed list of elite options due to several big fantasy guns already having played on Thursday, and a gaggle of low-projected-total matchups.
David Johnson and Jay Ajayi are a cut above everyone in terms of expected point output — and in Johnson’s case, price tag. Luckily there are enough inexpensive wideouts and value tight end plays to make it work, several of which are detailed below. There are also a handful of attractive quarterbacks at various price levels.
We can go in several directions with lineup construction, even with the narrowed player field. Leverage opportunities for chalky options like Johnson, Ajayi, Thomas Rawls, and the Raiders’ passing game are available. Let’s sit back with a monster turkey and stuffing sandwich, or two, and enjoy making lineups while we can — as we are officially in the post-Thanksgiving home stretch. Good luck, everybody.
QB Tom Brady – New England Patriots, $9,100
If we don’t want to pay up at quarterback this week (and who doesn’t need an extra $1,600 with a similarly high ceiling), scroll down a bit. Yet, rostering Brady in a favorable matchup at low ownership is always worth considering. Since he returned in Week 5, Brady ranks third in per-game scoring – less than one point out of the top spot – despite averaging the 19th-most pass attempts. Opponents pass at the 13th-highest rate against the Jets, and Brady will drop back more frequently than usual in a game tied for the third-highest projected point total on the slate.
The notoriously game-plan-specific Patriots are tied for the highest implied total (27.3), and with the Jets run defense grading 10th-best, we can project most of those points to arrive via the pass. New York has our 27th-graded pass coverage and 29th-ranked pass rush. They have faced only one top-14-graded passing offense (Seattle), and Russell Wilson ripped them for 309 yards and three scores back in Week 4 when the Seahawks were scuffling. New England has the fourth-highest passing game grade, and if you think Bill Belichick takes his foot off the gas in a blowout of the Jets, you haven’t paid attention.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $7,500
We will keep running him out there until he truly falters, or until he becomes priced too highly, or until quarterback ownership isn’t so flat as to be prohibitive. None apply this week for the 11th-most-expensive passer on the slate. Wilson is the third-highest-scoring fantasy quarterback over the last three weeks and has eclipsed 24 FanDuel points in all three games. He is our highest-graded passer, by far, during that span – matching his career-high three-game passing grade set in 2012.
Wilson’s last three weeks call to mind his six-game run to close the 2015 fantasy season, when he completed 71.4 percent of his passes at a 9.0 yards-per-attempt clip, with a 21-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. As healthy as he’s been in months, Wilson’s eight rushes in Week 11 were his most since Week 13 of 2015. He will take on a Buccaneers’ defense grading 23rd-best in pass coverage, 26th-best in pass rush, surrendering the eighth-most passing yards per game (267), and allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
RB DeMarco Murray – Tennessee Titans, $8,300
David Johnson is the nuts this week as the Cardinals should replicate the Eagles’ Week 10 “keep-away” game plan against the Falcons. We need to have some exposure, but at $9,500 and heavy ownership, he is tough-to-swallow chalk in tournaments. Jay Ajayi is in a prime spot and, again, we want him in lineups – but he’s priced next to Murray, who will come in at a fraction of the ownership. The Titans’ workhorse gained only 70 yards on 21 carries against the Colts last week, while saving his fantasy day with a receiving touchdown.
There are shinier toys than Murray to play with, despite his continued heavy workload. His 97.2-percent Week 11 snap rate was his highest of the season. He broke three more tackles on 21 handoffs, bringing his totals to 212 (third-most) and 38 (league-most), respectively. After three targets, he has the sixth-most among running backs (47). The Titans are 4.5-point favorites (and rising) against the burned-out shell of an already sub-par Bears roster. They will be without leading tackler and top-graded coverage linebacker Jerrell Freeman. The Murray/Titans defense stack makes a lot of sense for tournaments.
RB LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills, $8,100
McCoy is another relatively expensive running back who should see light ownership. He has the “Q-tag” next to his name, which will likely scare off traffic due to perceived uncertainty over his surgically-repaired thumb — on top of him not being either of the pricey running backs to own this week. McCoy is already healthy enough to practice on a limited basis and catch passes. There is a significant chance he is leaned on right away by an offense running the ball at a rate second only to the Cowboys (47.7-percent).
McCoy’s rushing grade ranks third, behind Ezekiel Elliott and Jay Ajayi. He ranks third in Elusive Rating and first in Breakaway Percentage – trailing only Elliott (16) for runs of 15-yards or more (15), while taking 105 fewer handoffs. McCoy will face a Jaguars defense allowing the third-most runs of 15-plus yards (19) and the seventh-most receptions per game to running backs. They give up the seventh-most rushing touchdowns, but the 20th-most receiving scores and fourth-fewest passing yards per attempt. The Bills are touchdown-plus favorites with a 26-point implied total against a defense more vulnerable on the ground, and McCoy will be lightly owned a week after his investors simply got unlucky.
RB Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs, $7,000
After last week’s disappointing result – which could easily have been a rousing success had things broke differently at the goal line – Ware will be lightly-owned despite a whopping $700 salary drop from Week 11. He is not a cash game play, however, and despite a 17.5-touch workload in the two games since his concussion – including six forced missed tackles and a sixth-best Elusive Rating – concern still exists. Great. He turned in his third- and fourth-highest-graded rushing games of the season the last two weeks. Ware’s performance has not been the cause of back-to-back sub-10-point performances.
The matchup with the Broncos seems daunting on paper, and the Chiefs are three-point underdogs in a game with a 39.5-point total. The good news is, with Denver allowing the second-fewest passing yards and touchdowns, most of Kansas City’s 18.3-point implied total will come via their ground game. With Charcandrick West (concussion) unlikely to see many touches, Ware is their ground game. Denver’s run defense has proved vulnerable, even at home. They allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs, including the fourth-most over the last month. The last time they played on Sunday night two weeks ago, Raiders’ runners averaged 5.5 yards per carry and scored three times – at similarly low ownership.
RB Rashad Jennings – New York Giants, $6,600
Week 11 was Jennings’ third in a row with a new season-high snap percentage (70.1). His best last year was 59.7-percent. He also set season-highs for carries (21), touches (25), and total yards (129). Jennings received his best grade of 2016 in Week 10, when he rushed for 87 yards on 15 carries and forced five missed tackles – then he graded even higher last week. The past two games have felt similar to the final four of 2015, when the Giants finally rode Jennings and he averaged 130.3 total yards on 22.8 touches, while scoring twice. Attention on New York’s passing game in an up-tempo matchup should help shield his ownership rate.
Jennings’ workload concerns are further alleviated by New York’s matchup with Cleveland, against whom they are favored by a touchdown. The Browns allow the second-most rushing attempts per game to running backs, their run defense grades 27th-best, and since Week 8, they surrender 70.5 plays per game (fourth-most). Over the last month, the Giants and Browns are the league’s two heaviest no-huddle offenses. Despite Paul Perkins’ supporting backfield role, overall play volume will keep Jennings’ plate full against a run defense grading 27th and allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs.
WR Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals, $7,200
Fading David Johnson is tough, especially in a game with the weekend’s highest projected total. Fitzgerald offers a path to making a Johnson lineup more unique when they’re paired together — with or without the ghost of Carson Palmer on the side. If Johnson’s touchdowns come through the air – he has two already, and the most receiving yards among running backs – it’s a team stack worth considering for a game in which the Cardinals will try to execute the Eagles’ keep-away game plan against the Falcons. Our third-highest-graded wideout, Fitzgerald will play a central role whether or not the plan is successful.
Fitzgerald ranks second in receptions and third in targets and is the only Cardinals wideout that Palmer has a quality passer rating when throwing to (104.6). Target volume is not a problem, but the Falcons boost it anyway. They lead the league in pass attempts faced, and their opponents average the third-most plays per game and the seventh-most points per play. The 6-foot-3 Fitzgerald will enjoy the slot coverage of 5-foot-9 Brian Poole on 65-percent of his routes. The rookie free agent had a solid start to the season, but he’s our 99th-graded coverage cornerback (out of 104) during the last month.
WR Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks, $6,900
Over the last three weeks, since Russell Wilson has again taken off, Baldwin is averaging 5.3 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown per game – with one passing score. PFF’s fourth-highest-graded wideout on the season, whose nine forced missed tackles ranks seventh among receivers, is fantasy’s third-highest scorer at his position since Week 8. Baldwin is averaging 18.6 FanDuel points over that time as the 31st-most-targeted wideout. The 18th-most-expensive receiver won’t go under-owned – but as with Wilson, attention paid to Thomas Rawls should keep their passing game pieces palatably priced.
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Starting in Week 12 of 2015, Baldwin finished the season as the top fantasy wideout on the back of 88.3 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game on 7.3 targets. While it would be foolish to expect him to again reach those levels, Seattle had more highly-ranked rushing-game (first) and run-blocking grades (29th) last year. They currently grade 20th and 32nd, respectively, and are more reliant on their passing game. They face a Buccaneers defense grading last in pass coverage, allowing the eighth-most points to fantasy wideouts, and who will be without their best slot cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah – who was only grading 86th-best in coverage anyway.
WR Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints, $6,400
The 24th-most-expensive wideout has the best individual cornerback matchup on a Saints team tied for the third-highest implied total of the weekend. Thomas had a rocky Week 10, fumbling twice and arguably costing New Orleans a game they lost by a razor-thin margin. It was, by far, his worst-graded game of the season, and he is currently our 16th-highest-graded wideout. Showing faith in the rookie, Sean Payton had him playing 80 percent of snaps four days later in Carolina while running his most routes (46) since Week 3. He caught all five targets for 68 yards, including one red-zone look.
Thomas leads the Saints in red zone targets, as well as touchdown catches from inside the 20- and 10-yard lines. He will run the majority of his routes against E.J. Gaines. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound Thomas has a size advantage on the 5-foot-10, 190-pound Gaines, who has allowed 29 completions for 352 yards (12.1-yard average) and four touchdowns since Week 5 (123.4 passer rating against). He has played the third-fewest coverage snaps per target and is the 113th-graded coverage cornerback (out of 114) during that span. Gaines essentially has a bullseye on his back relative to more highly graded teammates, and Drew Brees will pick on him mercilessly.
WR DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins, $6,300
Back on the radar since Week 10 with 13 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets – Parker’s best two-game stretch of his career from a workload standpoint – the 27th-most-expensive wideout will not be under-owned. Yet, with Jay Ajayi in the money spot this week, Parker won’t be prohibitively popular. Even if he doesn’t maintain a 33 percent target share among Dolphins pass-catchers, the matchup with the 49ers and their NFL-high 71.6 plays allowed per game ensures Parker’s workload remains solid. It’s also an argument for volume-dependent Jarvis Landry, who will be less heavily owned.
Parker came on down the stretch last season as well, while ranking 22nd out of 116 qualifying wideouts in passing-game grade on a per-target basis. Despite a slow start, his passing-game grade ranks 25th of 199. He leads all wideouts over the last two weeks, during which time his Yards-Per-Route-Run average ranks fourth-best. The Dolphins are touchdown-plus favorites at home and sport a healthy 26-point implied total, while the 49ers allow the third-most fantasy points to wideouts on a per-game basis and have given up the most total touchdowns to the position.
TE Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers, $7,000
If we want to pay up at tight end, Olsen looks like a solid mix of both ownership and point projection in a matchup with the slate’s second-highest projected total (49). Priced $100 higher than Jimmy Graham, who is running hotter and in a similarly favorable positional matchup, Olsen’s DFS traffic should be muted this week. After a high-profile flop during a Thursday night island game, in which he turned six targets into 33 scoreless yards while, mostly due to poor blocking, he registered his lowest PFF grade of the season, Olsen isn’t exactly a hot commodity right now.
It is easy to forget Olsen was lapping the fantasy tight end field prior to the Panthers’ Week 7 bye, leading his position with 15.8 FanDuel points per game. Since then, he isn’t producing half that average (6.8), despite scoring 13.7 two weeks ago. His targets have dropped from 9.7 to 5.8 and he’s scored once. However, Olsen’s 11.0-yard aDOT (average depth of target) still ranks second-highest among 33 tight ends who have seen double-digit looks, and he’s seen a healthy chunk of team targets since Week 8 (21-percent). The Raiders allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends and just gave up 114 yards on 10 catches to Texans’ tight ends on Monday.
TE Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns, $4,800
Barnidge is priced 22nd-most-expensive among tight ends, but he’s a salary-saver with a ceiling. The Browns will be in an up-tempo game, during which they will need to throw against a weak tight end defense to keep pace. New York’s run-stopping grades 11th-best, they have the league’s top pass coverage grade, and they are tough on perimeter receivers. With veteran Josh McCown – with whom Barnidge has had past success – starting in place of a rookie, the tight end’s floor is raised. Last season’s fifth-highest-graded passing-game tight end scored the third-most fantasy points and fourth-most touchdowns at his position.
The Giants give up the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends on the season, but the fifth-most over the last month. Zach Miller, Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, and even Lance Kendricks posted between 55 and 96 yards against them recently. New York has allowed the third-fewest touchdowns per game to tight ends (0.2), weighing down their points-allowed average to the position. Touchdown scoring is volatile – last year the Giants allowed the sixth-most – and as long as tight ends maintain their 8.6-target-per-game average against them, the scoring plays will come. Barnidge is ready for regression.