NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 1
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or SquirrelPatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 1
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Daniel Jones + Malik Nabers – This is my favorite stack of the week because it offers plenty of upside, yet it doesn’t break the bank. Jones and Nabers are both affordable on all sites. The total for this game (41) leaves a lot to be desired, but I like the potential pace. Kevin O’Connell always wants his offense to push the tempo, and reports from camp in New York are that Jones has looked much better in the hurry up offense. Jones always offers a solid rushing floor, and now he has a legitimate weapon in the passing game in Nabers. His usage in the preseason was through the roof, and it’s not like he has much competition for targets. I also love that teams that faced the Vikings last year had the highest situation-neutral pass rate. We also don’t have to worry about the Giants feeding Saquon Barkley the ball 30 times, as he’s now with the Eagles.
SquirrelPatrol: Anthony Richardson + Michael Pittman + Texans skill position player(s) – Richardson and the Colts are playing at home in a dome in one of the highest point total games of the week, and they will be facing a Texans pass defense that allowed the 7th most passing yards in the league last season. Richardson can break a slate with his rushing ability, and Pittman could see increased targets with Josh Downs hurting. I’d run this duo back with any number of Texans, but Joe Mixon is likely to be an overlooked Houston player whose success could mean Indy has to throw more.
Stevietpfl: Will Levis + DeAndre Hopkins + DJ Moore – I’m not going to take the wait-and-see approach with either of these offenses. Tennessee went out and hired Brian Callahan, who brings a passing mindset to the Titans. Derrick Henry is gone, and Tennessee has loaded up the skill position players for the passing game. I expect this team to throw a lot more this season, and Chicago allowed the 12th most passing yards per game last season. I’ll mix in some Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, but my main stack is Levis and Hopkins. I want to run it back with the Bears passing attack. I like Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Just like Tennessee, Chicago brought in Shane Waldron as a passing attack offensive coordinator. I was high on both of these offenses coming into the season, and I’m pumped they’re playing each other in Week 1.
Krayton: Caleb Williams + DJ Moore + DeAndre Hopkins – I have been excited for this game to start the season. Caleb Williams is in a great situation with so many offensive weapons around him. DJ Moore was phenomenal last season, as he posted 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and 8 TDs, and I definitely want to be in early on this Bears offense as a whole since Williams gets one of the best receiving trios to support him. Williams looked great in the preseason even though we didn’t see a ton of him, and I expect this offense to get off to a great start. On the Tennessee side, I like getting to DeAndre Hopkins, and I don’t even mind having exposure to Tony Pollard. Overall, this is a great game to target, and I will be over the field on both sides.
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ebeimfohr: Malik Nabers + Justin Jefferson – You can pick whichever QB in that game you’d like to include, or you can even pivot to a different stack you’d be prefer alongside this duo, but this is easily my favorite correlation for Week 1. Justin Jefferson is the best WR on the planet, and the market is overreacting to the move to Sam Darnold at QB. In 4 games with Nick Mullens at QB last year, Jefferson averaged 139 yards receiving, and the Giants secondary is so bad they just had to bring in corner Adoree’ Jackson a week ago to be a starter. On the flip side, the Vikings and DC Brian Flores present a heavy pass funnel defense, and the Giants are happy to funnel targets to superstar rookie Malik Nabers. This game has sneaky shootout potential, and the production will flow through these two.
ncorfield8k: CJ Stroud + Stefon Diggs + Tank Dell + Nico Collins in some as well. The point is that I love double stacking Stroud against a very bad Colts secondary. This was a dominant offense last season that only got more dominant with the addition of Diggs. Ownership is projected to be low because nobody knows which pass catchers to choose, but those are the situations I like to attack in large field tournaments.
Davis Mattek: CJ Stroud + Nico Collins + Tank Dell – I am opting for Collins specifically over Stefon Diggs. While I do believe Diggs is going to earn a 23-25% target share on the Texans (or at least demand it), Dell is the best WR on the team. Collins had a 3.4 average yards per route run (YPRR) last season and is the primary deep threat as well. HOU/IND is the pace up spot to attack, but we don’t see crazy pOWN% on Collins.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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