The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Steelers vs. Patriots
We have officially launched our new NFL DFS simulations tool: SimLabs. Try it now for FREE while it is still in beta!
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Steelers vs. Patriots, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Steelers vs. Patriots
We have an absolute doozy on tap tonight! The Patriots have held their opponents to fewer than 10 points in 3 straight games and have somehow found a way to go 0-3 during that stretch. The Steelers have only averaged 16 points per game this season and are now without Kenny Pickett. If you like low-scoring games that feature bad quarterback play, you are in for a real treat. The game features a 6-point spread and an unbelievably low total of 30.5 points. Weather doesn’t appear to be an issue, it will be in the low 40s with little to no wind.
Can you imagine if we didn’t have DFS and betting available to us? Woof.
Key Injuries
Kenny Pickett – Out
Najee Harris – Questionable [expected to play]
Rhamondre Stevenson – Out
Demario Douglas – Out
DeVante Parker – Questionable [limited practice]
Juju Smith-Schuster – Questionable [limited practice]
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Kenny Pickett had to undergo ankle surgery after injuring it against the Cardinals last week, which means Mitchell Trubisky will step in and draw the spot-start on Thursday night. While he’s a veteran with many starts in his career, he has struggled mightily when given the opportunity. He’s made 6 appearances where he has thrown the ball at least 22 times over the last 3 seasons and has maxed out at 15 fantasy points. His rushing upside has dwindled in recent years and he draws a difficult matchup against the Patriots, who have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The one thing Trubisky has going for him is that the slate is going to be extremely low-scoring. If he can give us 12-15 fantasy points, he’ll likely find his way onto the optimal lineup.
While I’m not all that optimistic about the pass catchers of the Steelers with Trubisky under center, the Patriots are much worse against the pass than they are against the run (at least according to DVOA). While Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin get snaps, most of the wide receiver targets in this offense funnel to George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. Given the matchup and the backup quarterback situation, I expect the Steelers to get the ball out quickly. In theory, this should benefit Johnson more than Pickens. The Patriots have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but Pat Freiermuth has commanded 16 targets over the last 2 games.
The Patriots are one of the worst matchups in the NFL for opposing running games. They are 2nd in DVOA against the run and 1st in rush EPA. However, the Steelers are playing with a backup quarterback, they are at home, and they are 6-point favorites. Even if they don’t have much success doing it, I expect them to lean heavily on the running game. We’ll have to monitor the status of Najee Harris, but it does sound like he’s trending toward playing. If he’s out, Jaylen Warren becomes my favorite play of the slate. Even if Harris ends up playing, I slightly prefer Warren given his explosiveness. I could actually see a game script where both end up on the optimal lineup.
All right, who’s excited for the double defense lineup builds? This game has the lowest total of the season and some awful quarterbacks. On top of that, both of these defenses can get pressure and create turnovers. I worry about Pittsburgh’s ability to move the ball, but could see the kickers being key pieces in lineups given the low-scoring nature of this slate. Feel free to load up on the Steelers D/ST and Chris Boswell.
New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots quarterback situation is a mess. They have apparently seen enough of Mac Jones, but haven’t gotten much of anything from Bailey Zappe. While it didn’t come to fruition last week, we heard that the Patriots even have a play package for Malik Cunningham. It looks like Zappe will draw another start tonight, but it certainly doesn’t feel good clicking on his name. He has thrown the ball a total of 60 times this season and has a total of 11.5 fantasy points. The Steelers have a decent pass rush and are ranked 7th or better in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Much like the Steelers, it’s hard to feel great about any of the pass-catchers for the Patriots. However, Demario Douglas has already been ruled out. DeVante Parker is listed as questionable, but was able to practice on a limited basis this week. He led the team with 9 targets last week against the Chargers. JuJu Smith-Schuster is also questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on their availability. Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor will round out the wide receiver room. My favorite target in this passing game is Hunter Henry. The Steelers have now lost 3 inside linebackers and just coughed up 120 yards to Arizona’s tight ends last week.
If the Patriots are going to have success on offense, it will likely be on the ground. The Steelers have been middling against the run this season and just gave up over 100 yards to James Conner last week. With Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out, Ezekiel Elliott will serve as the feature back for New England. He handled 21 of the 22 non-Stevenson touches in this backfield last week. JaMycal Hasty will be active for this one and is only $200 and Ty Montgomery will mix in as well, but Elliott has a clear path to 20+ touches. There’s a good chance he ends up being the highest scoring player on the slate, which makes him a strong MVP and CPT candidate.
The Patriots might have a losing record, but it’s not because of their defense. They are very good against the run, so we should like their chances of creating turnovers if they force Trubisky to air it out. Again, the double defense lineups are firmly in play. I have the same concern for Chad Ryland as I do for Boswell. Can the Patriots move the ball well enough to create field goal opportunities?
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I have already alluded to this twice, but the double defense lineup is firmly in play for this slate. This game features the lowest total that we have seen this season and the lowest total that I can ever remember in a game that wasn’t severely impacted by the weather. We don’t have a single player projected to score more than 15 fantasy points in this game. In theory, this means more players could end up being the optimal MVP and CPT. However, I’m focusing most of my attention on those spots to Jaylen Warren, Ezekiel Elliott, and both of the defenses. This also feels like a good slate to leave a lot of salary on the table.
Steelers-Patriots DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | QB | 14.14 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.54 | $15,000 | 0.94 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | RB | 13.84 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.47 | $12,000 | 1.15 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 12.69 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.59 | $13,500 | 0.94 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | QB | 11.06 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.23 | $13,000 | 0.85 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 11.02 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.31 | $14,000 | 0.79 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 9.99 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.02 | $11,500 | 0.87 |
| George Pickens | PIT | WR | 9.41 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 0.94 | $11,000 | 0.86 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 9.40 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.42 | $10,000 | 0.94 |
| DeVante Parker | NE | WR | 8.47 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.94 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 8.09 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.09 | $9,500 | 0.85 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 7.92 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.47 | $8,500 | 0.93 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 7.28 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.46 | $9,000 | 0.81 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 6.72 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.29 | $7,500 | 0.90 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | WR | 5.99 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.58 | $8,000 | 0.75 |
| Chad Ryland | NE | K | 5.34 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.16 | $8,500 | 0.63 |
| Tyquan Thornton | NE | WR | 4.64 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.36 | $7,000 | 0.66 |
| JaMycal Hasty | NE | RB | 4.20 | $200 | $300 | 21.00 | $5,000 | 0.84 |
| Allen Robinson | PIT | WR | 3.42 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.14 | $7,500 | 0.46 |
| Connor Heyward | PIT | TE | 2.11 | $200 | $300 | 10.55 | $6,000 | 0.35 |
| Calvin Austin III | PIT | WR | 2.03 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.85 | $6,500 | 0.31 |
| Mike Gesicki | NE | TE | 1.78 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.48 | $6,000 | 0.30 |
| Jalen Reagor | NE | WR | 1.58 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.99 | $6,000 | 0.26 |
| Pharaoh Brown | NE | TE | 1.06 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.06 | $5,000 | 0.21 |
| Ty Montgomery II | NE | RB | 0.75 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.29 | $5,000 | 0.15 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Hunter Henry: $5,200 DK / $7,500 FD
Paying this much for a tight end never feels great and I expect many to shy away from Henry given a supposed difficult matchup against the Steelers (6th in pass DVOA, 13th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends). However, the Steelers have now lost 3 inside linebackers and were just shredded by Trey McBride in Week 13. Henry had the third most targets on the team with Zappe under center last week.
Steelers vs. Patriots Player Pick’em
Season record: 27-15
24-7 over the last 31 games
Ezekiel Elliott more than 14.5 receiving yards (1.76x) – Sleeper
While I am still mourning the Jaguars loss and the injuries to Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk, at least we hit another prop on Monday night. The hot streak stayed hot, as we are now 24-7 on props over the last 31 games. The running back receiving props have treated us well in each of the last three primetime games, so let’s go back to the well with Ezekiel Elliott over 15.5 receiving yards. The Steelers have allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards to running backs this season, but they are short-handed at linebacker and Zappe will be looking to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Elliott has at least 14 receiving yards in 6 of 12 games this season and now gets this backfield all to himself (at least for the most part).
Image Credit: Getty Images