NFL DFS Picks and Analysis Week 13: The Grind Down - Ravens vs. Cowboys
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Baltimore Ravens DFS Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | $11,600 | $16,500 | #N/A | 23.4 | QB3 | 29.89 | 223.05 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| J.K. Dobbins | BAL | $8,600 | $12,000 | #N/A | 13.2 | RB14 | 28.00% | 12.00% |
| Mark Ingram | BAL | $5,600 | $9,500 | #N/A | 9.1 | RB37 | 32.00% | 3.00% |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | $5,400 | $12,500 | #N/A | 4.5 | RB59 | 13.00% | 3.00% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | $7,200 | $10,500 | #N/A | 12.9 | WR28 | 23.50% | 7.58 |
| Dez Bryant | BAL | $1,000 | $7,000 | #N/A | 6.3 | WR82 | 15.00% | 4.84 |
| Devin Duvernay | BAL | $800 | $7,000 | #N/A | 4.4 | WR93 | 16.50% | 5.33 |
| Miles Boykin | BAL | $600 | $6,500 | #N/A | 3.5 | WR98 | 10.50% | 3.39 |
| James Proche | BAL | $200 | $5,000 | #N/A | 0.5 | WR140 | 1.00% | 0.32 |
| Luke Willson | BAL | $1,800 | $6,000 | #N/A | 4.9 | TE34 | 11.00% | 3.55 |
| Eric Tomlinson | BAL | $200 | $5,000 | #N/A | 1 | TE66 | 3.00% | 0.97 |
Injuries to Monitor
Mark Andrews and Willie Snead remain on the COVID list.
Running Game Outlook
It feels like forever ago but back in Week 11 we were finally starting to see some separation in the Ravens backfield with J.K. Dobbins leading the way. Dobbins played a season-high 61.1% of snaps in that game and handled 17-of-23 backfield touches, racking up 85-yards and scoring a touchdown. It’s possible Baltimore was just playing the “hot hand” in that game but Dobbins remains the likeliest Baltimore RB to put up a relevant fantasy performance. Dobbins is a worthy tournament target on both sites and arguably underpriced on FanDuel for his potential role which keeps him in play for cash games.
How you handle the remaining Baltimore backfield is completely dependent on how you expect the team to use Dobbins this week. If you expect Dobbins to return and handle ~70% of the backfield touches again then you should almost entirely fade Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. Ingram and Edwards are only in play for tournaments if you expect Baltimore to use the “hot-hand approach” again, evening out backfield touches.
Passing Game Outlook
Mark Andrews and Willie Snead remain on the COVID list so Baltimore’s receiving corps should look similar to what we saw in Week 12 with Robert Griffin and Trace McSorely under center. In that game, Marquise Brown (23) led the team in routes run followed by Devin Duvernay (22), Luke Willson (20), Dez Bryant (19), Myles Boykin (6), Eric Tomlinson (2), and James Proche (1). Brown (7) led the team in targets but was on his way to another fantasy dud until he scored a 70-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Encouraging for Brown was the fact he saw a massive 41.1% target share and I would expect him to get fed again on Tuesday night, even with Lamar Jackson back under center. Brown makes for a strong play in all formats and is a viable CPT option in tournaments.
Productivity behind Brown was nonexistent but Duvernay running a route on 88% of the teams’ dropbacks was a step in the right direction. Duvernay did haul in all three of his targets for 20-yards for a modest fantasy performance at his cheap price tag. Duvernay’s price dropped all the way to $800 for Tuesday’s game and he’s my favorite value play on the slate.
It feels weird saying this but after Duvernay, I prefer grabbing exposure to Luke Willson over Dez Bryant. Neither player recorded a reception on their two targets in Week 12 but Willson ran more routes and got an end zone target.
Unless something drastically changes with their usage, Miles Boykin, James Proche, and Eric Tomlinson are very low probability dart throws that will hardly be on the field.
Strong Projections: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown
High Upside Correlations: Lamar Jackson + Marquise Brown
Strong GPP Differentiators: Mark Ingram
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Devin Duvernay, Dez Bryant, Luke Willson, Justin Tucker
My Expected Team Exposure: High
Dallas Cowboys Projections Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | DAL | $10,000 | $14,000 | #N/A | 16.6 | QB22 | 36.72 | 257.79 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | $10,200 | $15,000 | #N/A | 14 | RB12 | 60% | 9% |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | $2,600 | $7,500 | #N/A | 6.8 | RB49 | 28% | 5% |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | $200 | $5,000 | #N/A | 0.1 | RB92 | 1% | |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | $9,600 | $13,500 | #N/A | 16.1 | WR17 | 25% | 9.48 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | $4,400 | $8,500 | #N/A | 9.9 | WR51 | 18% | 6.82 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | $6,600 | $11,500 | #N/A | 12.9 | WR28 | 23% | 8.53 |
| Cedrick Wilson | DAL | $1,200 | $6,000 | #N/A | 2.6 | WR106 | 5% | 1.71 |
| Noah Brown | DAL | $200 | $5,500 | #N/A | 0.6 | WR138 | 1% | 0.38 |
| Dalton Schultz | DAL | $5,200 | $8,000 | #N/A | 7.8 | TE18 | 13% | 4.93 |
| Blake Bell | DAL | $200 | $5,500 | #N/A | 0.8 | TE69 | 2% | 0.57 |
Injuries to Monitor
No notable offensive injuries.
Running Game Outlook
I seldom really get my hand in the dirt in these previews and dissect offensive/defensive line injuries but this feels like a good game to make an exception. The Cowboys’ offensive line has been in shambles all season long and is expected to continue to be short-handed on Tuesday night without the help of Zack Martin and Cameron Erving. Additionally, the Ravens defensive line is expected to get both Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell back. To put it simply, what was already a daunting matchup for Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys rushing game just got harder.
Elliott has been #bad this entire season but unsurprisingly even worse without Dak Prescott under center. Zeke does not have a single rushing touchdown since Prescott got injured in Week 5 and has topped 100-rushing yards just once. Elliott has topped double-digit fantasy points just twice over that span yet is still priced as the second-most expensive player on FanDuel and DraftKings. Elliott is best reserved for tournament lineups.
Passing Game Outlook:
Here is the Cowboys’ target distribution with Andy Dalton under center: Amari Cooper (33), CeDee Lamb (32), Michael Gallup (23), Dalton Schultz (20), Ezekiel Elliott (17), Tony Pollard (9), Cedrick Wilson (5), Noah Brown (4).
While Cooper and Lamb have seen a similar number of targets, Cooper has vastly outperformed Lamb making him the clear top Dallas WR to target. Lamb is best used in tournament lineups.
Viewed primarily as a downfield threat, Gallup was used a bit more as a possession receiver in Week 12, catching 6-of-8 targets for 41-yards. Gallup is an interesting play on Tuesday night, especially if he continues to see more intermediate targets – he’s the cheapest Dallas WR and could find himself in optimal lineups even with a modest stat line similar to what he put up last week. The same could be said about Dalton Schutlz. I prefer Gallup over Schultz but it wouldn’t be surprising if Schultz worked his way into optimal lineups on the back of a 4-catch, 1-touchdown game.
Strong Projections: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott
High Upside Correlations: Andy Dalton + Pass-catchers
Strong GPP Differentiators: Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Tony Pollard, Greg Zuerlein
My Expected Team Exposure: Medium