NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Divisional Round
We’re down to the elite eight with four very intriguing matchups, and all eight teams are coming in extremely healthy, so injury news won’t be something we have to worry about leading up to the weekend. I’m most excited for Bengals-Bills, as we didn’t get to see that hyped up matchup play out in week 16, and thankfully Hamlin is back in Buffalo and making great progress in his recovery. Every game is loaded with high upside plays, so let’s dig in to the salaries and lineup construction for this week!
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or end zone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is out, likely out, or questionable to play in the Divisional Round, so make sure check this page as we get closer to kickoff for each game to see status changes for any Q players.
- Important players who are out this round include Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Joe Fortson.
- Isaiah McKenzie will play after missing last week. Jauan Jennings has a minor ankle injury but is fully expected to play. Skyy Moore is off the injury report and good to go for KC.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With so little injury news, there really isn’t any major lineup news of note outside of Mecole Hardman being out, so Toney and Watson remain the top WRs behind JuJu and MVS.
- Isaiah McKenzie said he’ll be out there this week, so it’ll be harder to gamble on Shakir or Beasley getting enough targets to be worth using outside of GPPs.
- Every game is stackable on a four game slate, but I’ll be targeting JAX/KCC the most, as it’s the most likely to turn in to a shootout, while CIN/BUF is also a great game to target players from both sides on.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes are all excellent plays around $9k, and if you can fit in the other players you want and stack some WRs with any of those QBs, that is by far the optimal way to go this week. If you need a cheaper QB in order to spend up on other positions, I’d go with Trevor Lawrence ($7,600), as I think the Jags are going to have to throw the most this week and are also the most likely to take risks on 4th downs, and Lawrence’s rushing ability gives him a big time ceiling. Daniel Jones ($7,400) also has a nice floor with his rushing ability, while Burrow, Dak and Purdy are more GPP QBs to me facing three of the best defenses of the weekend.
- At RB, Saquon Barkley ($8,500) is the highest upside play at the position this week, as he has the least competition behind him and is heavily involved in both the run and pass game. CMC has Mitchell breathing down his neck for touches, Sanders has Hurts, Gainwell, and Scott all in the mix to poach goal-line carries, while Pacheco/McKinnon & Pollard/Elliott are in timeshares, and all four have risky floors compared to Saquon. The other two RBs with the least competition behind them and big time usage in both the run and pass game are Travis Etienne ($6,800) and Joe Mixon ($7,700), so I would use at least one of those two with Barkley in cash games.
- At WR, Christian Kirk ($7,600) is my favorite play for the price, especially if you go with Lawrence in cash games. Kirk saw 14 targets last game, so we know the Jags are going to lean on him in must-win games, and in this same matchup during the regular season Kirk went for 9/105/2 on 12 targets. Zay Jones ($6,500) also makes for a great play at a great price to add to the Lawrence stack, as he saw 13 targets last week and should have a 10 target floor against KC. Deebo Samuel ($7,100) is another WR I love in cash games, as he’s back to full health, and his involvement in the run game gives him huge upside, as he could rush in a couple TDs along with the potential of taking any reception to the house.
- At TE, Travis Kelce ($8,000) is the clear highest upside play and I will do my best to fit him in my main build, but if you need to save salary, I’d go with either Dallas Goedert ($6,300), Evan Engram ($6,000), or Dawson Knox ($5,800).
- My favorite defense this week is the 49ers ($4,500), as they’re at home, and Dallas has one of the lowest team totals of the slate. The Eagles ($4,800) would be my next favorite choice.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Trevor Lawrence ($6,000) remains my favorite cheap QB if you can’t fit Allen, Hurts, or Mahomes.
- Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Joe Mixon ($6,500), and Travis Etienne ($6,400) are still at great prices, and I would use at least two of them in your main build.
- Christian Kirk ($6,000) and Deebo Samuel ($5,900) are just too cheap and are my favorite p/$ WRs of the week on DK. Tee Higgins ($5,800) and Gabe Davis ($4,800) are also crazy cheap and make for a great correlation stack for exposure to CIN/BUF. Zay Jones ($4,700) and Richie James ($3,900) are my favorite sub-$5k WRs.
- Dallas Goedert ($4,500), Evan Engram ($4,300), and Dawson Knox ($3,800) remain my top p/$ TE targets, while Hayden Hurst ($3,200) and Daniel Bellinger ($3,000) are in play if you need the savings.
- For defense I’m still paying up for the 49ers ($3,300) in cash games.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn