NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 15
Bye weeks are done for, but there is still a Thursday game and three games on Saturday along with the Sunday night and Monday night games, so the Sunday main slate will still be missing twelve teams and lots of big names from the player pool. We again have a lot of movement at QB this week with Desmond Ridder taking over for ATL, Colt McCoy taking over for the injured Murray, Zach Wilson starting for the injured White, and potentially Mitchell Trubisky and Brett Rypien starting if either Pickett or Wilson end up out in concussion protocol. The Texans will likely continue to use both Mills and Driskel at QB making this Houston offense even harder to trust, as Dameon Pierce is now out, and they could remain without Cooks and Collins at WR. The Patriots RBs and Bengals WRs will be interesting groups to monitor this week, as injuries to Stevenson, Harris, Higgins, and Boyd could provide more opportunity to guys like Pierre Strong and Trenton Irwin who both found the end zone last week.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 134, how likely guys who missed week 13 are going to play in Week 14, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 15 include Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Marcus Mariota, Kenny Pickett, Mike White, Dameon Pierce, Damien Harris, Courtland Sutton, Corey Davis, Nico Collins, Brandin Cooks, Chase Claypool, DeVante Parker, Kendall Hinton, Rondale Moore, Treylon Burks, Mecole Hardman, Dallas Goedert, Hayden Hurst, KJ Hamler, Mark Ingram, and Mike Boone.
Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable and Julio Jones is doubtful.
Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow we’re activated off IR.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Desmond Ridder will start for ATL, which should be an upgrade to the passing game, so a Ridder-London stack makes for a cheap GPP play with solid upside this week.
- Zach Wilson will start for the Jets as Mike White wasn’t cleared for contact with his ribs injury, so this is a downgrade for Garrett Wilson and the passing game overall, while Zonovan Knight still remains a strong play against DET.
- Mitchell Trubisky and Brett Rypien could start if Pickett or Wilson don’t clear the concussion protocol, so PIT and DEN could struggle even more to move the ball this week.
- Colt McCoy will start for ARI in a tough road matchup in Denver, so I’d be hesitant to use anyone outside of Conner or Hopkins for the Cardinals in DFS this week.
- With Dameon Pierce out for Houston, we should see a timeshare between Ogunbowale and Burkhead and possibly Freeman as well if he’s elevated from the practice squad. Davis Mills & Jeff Driskel are expected to split the QB work again, so overall this offense is unpredictable and should have trouble moving the ball against KC without their top RB and possibly top WRs again.
- We’ll see if Stevenson, Harris, or Meyers are able to play for the Patriots, but if the top two RBs sit, then Pierre Strong would be the likely RB1 while Nelson Agholor could be the WR1 if Meyers is out, as Parker is in concussion protocol.
- JaMarr Chase is looking at another huge target share if Higgins and/or Boyd are unable to play this week, while Trenton Irwin could be an interesting value play if he ends up as the WR2 or 3 for Cincy.
- My favorite game stack is TEN/LAC, as I’d expect both teams to move the ball fairly easily against each other especially the Chargers passing game and Titans running game, so there should be plenty of red zone chances for both teams compared to a lot of the other games with low totals.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- At QB, I’m jamming in Jalen Hurts ($9,000) and then figuring out the rest, as no one has the floor/ceiling combo that he does on the main slate. With three straight games over 29 FP, he could blow away the QB position again this week, and I don’t want to be someone hoping he doesn’t go off and then struggling to catch up with any other QB if he does go off. Patrick Mahomes ($9,100) is someone that could also go bonkers against HOU, but there is too much risk that they just run the ball a ton or blow HOU out early, so I’d rather have a guy like Hurts facing a Bears team that is more likely to keep the game competitive.
- Desmond Ridder ($6,500) is an interesting GPP play, and I also like Joe Burrow ($8,000), Justin Herbert ($8,300), Trevor Lawrence ($7,400), and Ryan Tannehill ($6,900) for GPPs.
- At RB, I’m liking the value of David Montgomery ($6,800) and Zonovan Knight ($7,200), as Montgomery is a nice correlation play with Hurts and Knight has an excellent matchup with DET and should remain the top RB for the Jets after seeing 19 touches with Carter active last week. Miles Sanders ($7,800) is also a bit too cheap for how good he’s been over the last three weeks, and I don’t mind stacking him with Hurts and just getting all the Philly points. Alvin Kamara ($7,600) draws a nice matchup with ATL and is one of my favorite RBs for GPPs along with Travis Etienne ($7,000), James Conner ($7,200), and Isiah Pacheco ($7,600).
- At WR, I like stacking AJ Brown ($8,200) with Hurts, as he’s still a bit too cheap given his huge upside, and I will also do my best to fit in JaMarr Chase ($9,000), as he has the highest ceiling at WR this week against a Bucs D that is worse against the pass, and Higgins/Boyd/Hurst aren’t 100%. Chris Godwin ($7,000) is a nice correlation play with Chase, and if Godwin can find the end zone again, he could crush that salary, as he’s still seeing a ton of targets and is the cheapest he’s been since week 12. Mike Evans ($6,900) is the cheapest he’s been all season and is also in play if you prefer more deep ball opportunities compared to Godwin, and I think Evans breaks his TD drought this week. Zay Jones ($6,300) remains a great value play even against Dallas, as the Jags will likely have to throw a lot this game, and Jones is averaging over 10 targets in his last four games and looks like the WR1 for Lawrence.
- At TE, I like going cheap with either Greg Dulcich ($5,600), Pat Freiermuth ($5,800), Chig Okonkwo ($5,100), or Evan Engram ($5,500). Cole Kmet ($5,300) is also in play along with Darren Waller ($5,100) & Dallas Goedert ($6,000) if they come off IR.
- My favorite defense this week is the Broncos ($3,700) at home against McCoy while the Panthers ($4,200) are another D I like at home against the struggling Steelers.
Looking at DraftKings:
- With Mike White ruled out this week, I’m really not loving any cheap QBs for cash games, so I will stick with Jalen Hurts ($8,200) and go cheap at some other positions . Desmond Ridder ($5,200) remains a favorite GPP QB along with Ryan Tannehill ($5,300), Justin Herbert ($7,200), Dak Prescott ($6,200), Trevor Lawrence ($6,000), and Joe Burrow ($7,000).
- At RB, I still really like the prices of David Montgomery ($6,300), Zonovan Knight ($5,300) and Miles Sanders ($6,500) and don’t mind using all three in cash games. Travis Etienne ($6,000), Alvin Kamara ($6,800), and Isiah Pacheco ($5,900) are my favorite GPP RBs.
- At WR, Garrett Wilson ($6,000) is still super cheap, and even with Zach Wilson throwing him the ball now, he’s still in play for cash games, especially with the nice matchup with DET. Zay Jones ($4,900) is also still too cheap for someone seeing 10+ targets a game in a matchup where Jacksonville should have to throw more than run. I also really like Nelson Agholor ($3,400) for extreme value, as he saw 10 targets last game with Meyers out and Parker leaving early and draws a nice matchup with the Raiders and should be the WR1 or 2 if Meyers and/or Parker end up out. Drake London ($4,700) is another cheap WR to consider for cash games, as he should see 10+ targets from Ridder, as they saw plenty of work together in the preseason. Chris Godwin ($6,700) and Mike Evans ($6,200) remain solid mid-range targets for correlation if you end up with Bengals exposure in cash games. With Sutton and Hinton out for DEN, I think Jerry Jeudy ($6,100) is too cheap on DK and should be in serious consideration for your cash game lineup even with Rypien at QB.
- At TE, we’re loaded with cheap options again, starting with Greg Dulcich ($3,600) in a great matchup with ARI and also Chig Okonkwo ($3,100), who only went up $400 from last week after going for almost 20 FP and looks to be the TE1 for the Titans now. Evan Engram ($3,800) showed his immense ceiling last week and is still crazy cheap, while Dalton Schultz ($4,400) and Pat Freiermuth ($4,500) are my favorite plays in the $4k range.
- The Broncos ($2,700) defense remains my favorite for the price along with the Panthers ($3,300).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
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Good luck this week!
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