NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 16
We’re getting down to the final few weeks of the season, so teams are starting to clinch playoff spots, and the best teams that clinch early will definitely be looking to get anyone who needs it some rest. I mention this as Jalen Hurts is dealing with a shoulder sprain, and the Eagles know they need him at full strength for a Super Bowl run, so with almost everything already locked up as far as playoffs and home field advantage, I’d expect them to be very cautious with him over the next couple weeks and go with Gardner Minshew at QB. Philly is a 5.5 point underdog in Dallas, so Vegas is expecting Hurts to sit as well, but this offense still has plenty of firepower, and Minshew is more than capable of putting up solid numbers, and he’s close to minimum price on both sites this week. This week is also unique as the “main slate” (what this article focuses on) will be on Saturday with 10 games while Christmas on Sunday will have three games, and we still have a Monday night game. We’ll see if Lamar Jackson or Ryan Tannehill get in any practice time this week, but I’d expect both to be out, giving Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis starts and a couple more solid value QB options to go along with Minshew.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 134, how likely guys who missed week 13 are going to play in Week 14, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 16 include Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Lockett, Damien Harris, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry, Hayden Hurst, DeVante Parker, Mecole Hardman, Chase Claypool, Devin Duvernay, Dameon Pierce, Fortson, and Trevon Wesco.
Dallas Goedert and Khalil Herbert will return from IR and play this week.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- If Cooks and/or Collins are unable to play, the Texans could run out Dorsett, Moore, and Rodgers as their top WRs again in Tennessee while the Titans are likely to start Malik Willis with Tannehill facing “an uphill battle” to play but hopefully they get back Treylon Burks back from his concussion.
- Khalil Herbert has a good chance to return and backup Montgomery, while St. Brown is likely out with a concussion, but Claypool and Harry could return to bolster the WR group for Fields in a tough matchup with Buffalo.
- Tyler Lockett is out at least this week with a broken finger, so DK Metcalf will get all the targets he can handle in KC, while Marquise Goodwin becomes an intriguing value play along with Noah Fant.
- We’ll see if Harris and Parker are able to play for the Patriots, but if not, Rhamondre Stevenson would maintain a big workload, while Meyers, Agholor, and Henry would remain the top pass-catchers.
- Gardner Minshew will likely start for Philly and has to be considered a top value QB option, especially with Dallas Goedert returning to provide a strong safety valve underneath for him.
- My favorite game stacks are NYG/MIN, SEA/KCC, and DET/CAR, while PHI/DAL also has some shootout potential.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- At QB this week Patrick Mahomes ($9,200) is looking like the safest cash game play playing at home with the highest projected team total of the slate. Josh Allen ($9,500) is also in cash game consideration if you want to spend up and secure a safer floor at QB, but I still prefer Mahomes.
- If you want to save some salary at QB then I’d go with Kirk Cousins ($7,700) at home against the Giants, as the Vikings have the 3rd highest projected team total, and this game has just a 3.5 point spread, so he should have to throw a lot assuming this game stays relatively close. Dak Prescott ($7,500) is my next favorite QB in this price range, while Gardner Minshew ($6,100) is my favorite extreme value QB.
- At RB, Derrick Henry ($9,800) is in another smash spot against a Texans team that he obliterated earlier this year for over 200 rush yards and 2 TDs, and the Titans will have to lean on him even more if Tannehill doesn’t play. Along those same lines of a team relying more on their RB with their top QB likely out is Miles Sanders ($7,100) who went down $700 in salary after a terrible game last week but should bounce back nicely after the head coach said they need to get him the ball more.
- Christian McCaffrey ($9,400) remains an elite option if you can afford him, while Saquon Barkley ($8,500) and Dalvin Cook ($8,700) make for an excellent game stack combo at nice discounts to Henry and McCaffrey. If you’d rather go cheaper at RB, I think JK Dobbins ($7,000) and David Montgomery ($7,200) remain solid options, while Alvin Kamara ($7,400) remains at an excellent price, and if he can ever find the end zone again, he will smash his salary. Jerick McKinnon ($7,300) should also continue to draw more ownership after b2b huge games, but his price went up $1,100 from last week, and Pacheco is still heavily in the mix for KC, so there’s a definite risk with him.
- At WR, DK Metcalf ($8,000) is in strong consideration for top overall play with Lockett out, as the Seahawks are going to have to throw a lot to keep up with the Chiefs, and Metcalf was already averaging around 10 targets a game with Lockett in. DJ Moore ($7,100) is also looking like a top p/$ cash game play, as the Lions have been much better against the run than the pass the last few weeks, so Carolina should have to throw more, and Moore is far and away Darnold’s favorite target. Speaking of favorite targets, Drake London ($6,400) was Ridder’s top option last week, seeing 11 targets and is only $100 more expensive than last week, so keep him in cash game consideration.
- Other WRs I like for the price include DeVonta Smith ($7,600), Adam Thielen ($6,600), Jahan Dotson ($5,700), Rashid Shaheed ($5,600), and Chris Moore ($6,100).
- At TE, George Kittle ($7,000) only went up $500 after going for over 23 FP last game and brings big upside at a nice price with Deebo Samuel still out. Noah Fant ($5,300) is my favorite extreme value TE as he’s separated himself from the other SEA TEs and should see closer to 10 targets with Lockett out. Mark Andrews ($6,400), Dawson Knox ($5,700), Juwan Johnson ($5,900), and Dallas Goedert ($6,200) are other TEs I like for the price.
- My favorite p/$ defense is the Browns ($4,100), who are at home and facing a Saints team with a current team total of under 15. The Titans ($4,700) and 49ers ($5,000) are my favorite expensive Ds.
Looking at DraftKings:
- I’m still looking to jam in Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), although Gardner Minshew ($4,800) is so cheap that I will strongly consider going with him in cash games and paying up at RB. Dak Prescott ($6,100) and Kirk Cousins ($6,300) also remain at great prices, and I can’t fault anyone for using either in their main build.
- At RB, Derrick Henry ($8,600) is still underpriced, especially considering the matchup with HOU, and I don’t want to be someone rooting against him in cash games, so I’m locking him in first. I will do my best to pair him with Christian McCaffrey ($8,800), as he has the highest upside of any RB on a full PPR site like DK, and I really think Miles Sanders ($6,200) will have a nice bounce-back game, especially if Hurts sits, and I don’t mind pairing him with Minshew to get all the Philly offensive points. Barkley ($7,900), Cook ($7,200), Montgomery ($6,500), and Dobbins ($5,800) remain my next favorite RBs for the price.
- At WR, I’m locking in DK Metcalf ($7,100), as his upside is just too immense to fade with Lockett out. DJ Moore ($5,500) and Drake London ($4,800) remain super cheap and top cash game targets for me while some other WRs I’d consider as top plays for the price are CeeDee Lamb ($7,500), DeVonta Smith ($6,600), Adam Thielen ($5,300), Chris Moore ($4,700), Jahan Dotson ($3,900), and Rashid Shaheed ($3,500).
- At TE I’d still consider George Kittle ($5,300) the best p/$ play with Samuel out, but if you’re trying to fit in a top QB and a couple top RBs, I think going super cheap with Noah Fant ($3,400), Dawson Knox ($4,100), Juwan Johnson ($3,800), or Chig Okonkwo ($3,500) is the way to go.
- The Browns ($3,800) and 49ers ($3,900) are my favorite defenses, but for cheaper, I like the Titans ($3,600) and Ravens ($3,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL Twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn