NFL Edge: Week 1 - Monday Night Football
Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!
Note: This article is free to all for Week 1. Starting in Week 2, only FanDuel and DraftKings Premium subscribers will have access to this content.
Saints at Vikings
Vegas-Implied Total: Vikings 25.75, Saints 22.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Vikings Run D – 16th DVOA / 17th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 3rd DVOA / 13th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D – 8th DVOA / 4th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 6th DVOA / 5th Yards per pass attempt
Saints Run D – 23rd DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O – 31st DVOA / 32nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D – 30th DVOA / 31st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Vikings Pass O – 19th DVOA / 19th Yards per pass attempt
______
I am enormously disappointed that this game is not on the main slate in Week 1, as the Vikings against the Saints are an exciting team to target.
We have some question marks with the Vikings that make them a bit irresponsible for cash games (though in regards to the Thursday-through-Monday slate: playing cash games on a slate that small is irresponsible anyway!), but they bring big tourney upside.
Of course, the particular bummer of the Vikings not being on Sunday is that this game is, by far, the most appealing from a fantasy standpoint on the three-game slate (the other two games are Chargers at Broncos in the late Monday night game and Texans at Bengals on Thursday night), which means tournament ownership will likely be ludicrously high. (If you are playing the 16-game slate that kicks off on Thursday night, definitely consider looking all the way forward to this game, as you should be able to get low ownership in that format.)
With all that covered…
The Saints are working hard to improve on defense (no, this is not a summer sequel; I know it feels like we’ve seen this story before), but they still have a long way to go before I’ll be concerned about rostering running backs and pass catchers against them – and the Vikings have one of the most exciting young backs in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings should be playing with a lead or within striking distance of a lead for most of this game, which will enable them to give Cook a big workload, making him one of my favorite plays of the week (get him at this price while you can).
The Vikings are also exciting through the air, as Adam Thielen is expected to kick into the slot a bit more this season, while Stefon Diggs moves to the outside. From Week 5 on last year, Thielen was a top-20 fantasy wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and this week he is playing the Saints…and is available on the cheap.
Speaking of Diggs: his connection with Sam Bradford will kick to the outside more often, but while this lowers his floor a little bit, it does nothing to injure his upside.
Finally, Kyle Rudolph was quietly an elite tight end last year, with the second most red zone targets in the entire NFL. It’s really pretty simple, all the way around: Offenses against the Saints get a big upgrade (vs a poor defense, and opposite a dangerous offense), and the Vikings have several weapons who are more than capable of taking advantage.
On the other side, the Saints’ offense tends to be a mess to predict, though Michael Thomas emerged last year as a genuine number one receiver (as in: the sort of usage that would warrant that designation even on a typical team), with 121 targets and 92 receptions. While the Vikings’ pass defense is not one we typically go out of our way to pick on, the departure of Brandin Cooks locks Thomas into a solidified workload, and I would be happy to target him as a moderate-floor/high-ceiling play on the small three-game slate (he’s a tougher sell at an elevated price when you take all 16 games into account, as the chances of him being one of the top scorers on the weekend are slim; but he’s certainly a fine play even in the larger format, simply given that he is a talented receiver with Drew Brees throwing to him).
While there is nothing against the elite Vikings pass defense that I want to test elsewhere on the 16-game slate, the most intriguing tourney play on this squad may very well be Ted Ginn. “Most intriguing” does not necessarily mean “best,” but the fact that Ginn is being billed as the number two receiver on the Saints and could conceivably see six to eight targets at fairly low ownership (which is always difficult to find on a tiny slate), he has all the makings of a perfect tourney dart throw.
The one thing I do like about this game not being on the main slate is that it affords us an opportunity to sit back and see how the uncertainty on the Saints unfolds in Week 1 – giving us a better feel for how to approach this team moving forward. In the backfield, there is unlikely to be any clarity until after Week 1 on whether Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram is the safer option, and there is unlikely to be any clarity on whether Ginn really is the number two guy, or if that designation still falls to Willie Snead. On the three-game slate, all these guys are merely “hope and pray” tourney plays, while they are all easy guys for me to stay away from on the 16-gamer.
Chargers at Broncos
Vegas-Implied Total: Broncos 23.75, Chargers 20.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Broncos Run D – 21st DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O – 24th DVOA / 26th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chargers Pass O – 15th DVOA / 9th Yards per pass attempt
Chargers Run D – 15th DVOA / 7th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O – 29th DVOA / 28th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D – 9th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Broncos Pass O – 22nd DVOA / 21st Yards per pass attempt
______
I wish we were ending the Week 1 slate with a bigger bang than this, as it’s tough to get too excited about this game even on the three-game slate, but we’ll have to take what Roger Goodell gave us (at least, I think it’s too late for the appeals process here…).
On the Chargers’ side – from a DFS perspective – we have equal disadvantages of A) a matchup against the absolutely, outlandishly elite Broncos pass defense, and B) an offense that has too many pass game weapons for us to really know until after a game or two has passed how we can most effectively employ them. While rookie Mike Williams will not be making an impact, we still have a team with Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin – which would create headaches even without a game against Denver. I wish I could offer more help here. Obviously, if this game were on the main slate, we would spend hardly any time on the Chargers’ passing offense, with only a quick, “As you know, you can technically justify anything in tourneys, but…” – but with this game as part of the tiny three-game slate, it would be nice if there were something to uncover here. Realistically, though – even with Wade Phillips gone – this is the same personnel that finished last year third in sacks, first in passing touchdowns allowed (at only 13 all season!), first in quarterback rating allowed (and unworldly 69.7), and first in passing yards allowed per game (186 – are you kidding me?). I would rather full-stack the Vikings/Saints game than try to hunt for pass game upside here.
The major weakness for the Broncos was their run defense, which finished last year ranked 21st in DVOA, and has not done much to improve. I’m not buying Melvin Gordon as a top-five running back this season (touchdown regression is going to hit, and Gordon’s lack of efficiency – only 3.9 yards per carry last year – will not support the sort of season he had last year without elite touchdown scoring), and I don’t have interest in going here on the bigger slate. But on the three-game slate, Gordon comes into play. Because of how difficult it is to pass against the Broncos, they ended up facing the third-most rushing attempts in the NFL last year, and Gordon himself totaled 50 carries in his two games against them. With pass game involvement, goal line work, and the best chance to move the ball for his team, Gordon is a strong option on the three-game slate.
The backfield on the other side is an absolute mess to try to predict, with poor offensive line play and a muddled backfield pecking order. C.J. Anderson seems likeliest to lead the Broncos in touches this first week, though there is no guarantee that this will mean more than 15 or so carries, as the Broncos also have Jamaal Charles (and none of us know what that means at the moment), and they seem to like rookie De’Angelo Henderson a lot as well. In a sub-par matchup with an uncertain situation, this is easy to avoid on the large slate; I guess you can close your eyes and guess on the small slate, though it wouldn’t feel good.
This slate closes with Trevor Semien trying to effectively throw a football to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Much like Amari and Crabtree, the great thing about Demaryius and Emmanuel is that their targets are locked-in, with no other receiving options on the Broncos rising to a relevant level. Last year, while playing on the same team (which ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts), Emmanuel ranked 11th in the NFL in targets per game at 9.1, while Demaryius ranked 13th in the NFL at 9.0. That’s how secure the looks are for these two guys.
The matchup against Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward (which will be one of the top cornerback duos in the NFL if Verrett returns to top form after last year’s ACL tear) is sub-optimal, and while the two Broncos receivers were top 13 in targets last year, they finished 18th (Emmanuel) and 23rd (Demaryius) in PPR scoring – which emphasizes the inefficiency this offense endured last year under subpar quarterback play. On the three-game slate, each guy is in play – with a slight lean, for me, toward the downfield explosiveness of Emmanuel Sanders – but I don’t love either play, and neither guy stands out to me much in the context of all 16 games.