NFL First Look: Week 10 Preview
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
Week 9 Thoughts
— Even after a high scoring Falcons/Buccaneers game, Thursday Night Football is not good football.
— Julio Jones saw a redzone target (four on the season) and guess what? He scored a touchdown. Give the man the ball.
— Mike Evans is seeing so many targets that he needs to be considered each and every week.
— The Steelers aren’t the same without a mobile Ben Roethlisberger. Hopefully his mobility will improve each week.
— The Ravens’ defense is legitimate. Their offense remains stagnant, but we should avoid players against their defense.
— Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are great. The Cowboys’ offensive line is AMAZING.
— With Corey Coleman back, the Browns’ passing attack is intriguing moving forward.
— Blake Bortles is bad. Where is Tim Tebow when we need him? The Jaguars are wasting the glory years of Allen Robinson.
— No matter who is in the backfield in Kansas City, we shouldn’t expect more than 20 touches for a single player.
— Jay Ajayi is the real deal. His 111 yards against the Jets was just as impressive as his back-to-back 200 yards games.
— Darren Sproles is the lead back in Philadelphia. He didn’t get either of the RB touchdowns, but he’s primed for a breakout game.
— Why don’t the Giants throw five-yard slants to Odell Beckham on every play? He seems to take every one of them to the house.
— All the Theo Riddick moving forward. He is still a terrific pass catching back and now he is seeing 10-15 rushes per game as well.
— Stefon Diggs is awesome, but my oh my this Vikings’ offense is bad.
— Their defense isn’t the same as last year, but I like the Panthers as a sleeper to make the playoffs after a start of 1-5.
— If Jared Goff isn’t ready, that’s fine. But at this point the Rams have to give someone else a try behind center.
— Target running backs against the Saints and target running backs against the Niners.
— Marcus Mariota and the Titans continue to be an offense that we can stream defenses against.
— Melvin Gordon may actually be better than we gave him credit for. What a performance against the Titans.
— You’re telling me that Andrew Luck threw more interceptions than touchdowns and the Colts beat the Packers in Lambeau?
— I’m not sure the Raiders are as good as their record, but they are fun to watch.
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | at | Baltimore Ravens | BAL-10.0 | 45.0 | Thu, Nov 10 | 8:25 PM | M&T Bank Stadium |
| Atlanta Falcons | at | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI-1.0 | 50.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | Lincoln Financial Field |
| Chicago Bears | at | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -1.0 | 45.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | Raymond James Stadium |
| Denver Broncos | at | New Orleans Saints | NO -1.5 | 49.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | Superdome |
| Green Bay Packers | at | Tennessee Titans | GB -2.5 | 49.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | Nissan Stadium |
| Houston Texans | at | Jacksonville Jaguars | HOU-1.5 | 42.5 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | EverBank Field |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at | Carolina Panthers | CAR-3.0 | 44.5 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | Bank of America Stadium |
| Los Angeles Rams | at | New York Jets | NYJ-2.5 | 41.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium |
| Minnesota Vikings | at | Washington Redskins | WAS-2.5 | 42.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 1:00 PM | FedEx Field |
| Miami Dolphins | at | San Diego Chargers | SD -3.5 | 48.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 4:05 PM | Qualcomm Stadium |
| Dallas Cowboys | at | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT-2.5 | 50.0 | Sun, Nov 13 | 4:25 PM | Heinz Field |
| San Francisco 49ers | at | Arizona Cardinals | ARI-13.5 | 48.5 | Sun, Nov 13 | 4:25 PM | University of Phoenix Stadium |
| Seattle Seahawks | at | New England Patriots | NE -7.5 | 48.5 | Sun, Nov 13 | 8:30 PM | Gillette Stadium |
| Cincinnati Bengals | at | New York Giants | NYG-2.5 | 47.0 | Mon, Nov 14 | 8:30 PM | MetLife Stadium |
Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups
Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | Total DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RUSH | vs. RB (Pass) | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | -13.5 | 31.0 | San Francisco | 23 | 20 | 30 | 6 | 32 | 11 | 8 |
| New England Patriots | -7.5 | 28.0 | Seattle | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 24 | 26 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -10.0 | 27.5 | Cleveland | 30 | 30 | 31 | 20 | 31 | 30 | 30 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.5 | 26.3 | Dallas | 14 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 31 |
| Green Bay Packers | -2.5 | 25.8 | at Tennessee | 22 | 24 | 9 | 30 | 12 | 20 | 17 |
| San Diego Chargers | -3.5 | 25.8 | Miami | 13 | 10 | 17 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 14 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -1.0 | 25.5 | Atlanta | 26 | 22 | 21 | 26 | 18 | 10 | 18 |
| New Orleans Saints | -1.5 | 25.3 | Denver | 2 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| New York Giants | -2.5 | 24.8 | Cincinnati | 24 | 23 | 18 | 22 | 5 | 25 | 29 |
| Atlanta Falcons | + 1.0 | 24.5 | at Philadelphia | 1 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 2 | 19 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | + 2.5 | 23.8 | at Pittsburgh | 25 | 21 | 22 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.0 | 23.8 | Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 23 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 23 |
| Denver Broncos | + 1.5 | 23.8 | at New Orleans | 29 | 28 | 28 | 32 | 7 | 28 | 25 |
| Tennessee Titans | + 2.5 | 23.3 | Green Bay | 8 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 26 | 10 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.0 | 23.0 | Chicago | 15 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 22 | 15 | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | + 3.5 | 22.3 | at San Diego | 7 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 21 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | + 2.5 | 22.3 | at N.Y. Giants | 10 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 9 |
| Washington Redskins | -2.5 | 22.3 | Minnesota | 5 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 7 |
| Houston Texans | -1.5 | 22.0 | at Jacksonville | 18 | 13 | 27 | 1 | 21 | 27 | 12 |
| Chicago Bears | + 1.0 | 22.0 | at Tampa Bay | 20 | 19 | 16 | 29 | 20 | 22 | 5 |
| New York Jets | -2.5 | 21.8 | Los Angeles | 11 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 11 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | + 3.0 | 20.8 | at Carolina | 16 | 27 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 4 | 28 |
| Seattle Seahawks | + 7.5 | 20.5 | at New England | 19 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 24 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | + 1.5 | 20.5 | Houston | 12 | 8 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Minnesota Vikings | + 2.5 | 19.8 | at Washington | 21 | 11 | 32 | 2 | 19 | 31 | 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams | + 2.5 | 19.3 | at N.Y. Jets | 27 | 31 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 32 | 15 |
| San Francisco 49ers | + 13.5 | 17.5 | at Arizona | 4 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 3 |
| Cleveland Browns | + 10.0 | 17.5 | at Baltimore | 6 | 14 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 1 |
Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups
Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | QB | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | -13.5 | 31.0 | San Francisco | 23 | 32 | 17 | 21 |
| New England Patriots | -7.5 | 28.0 | Seattle | 7 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -10.0 | 27.5 | Cleveland | 31 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.5 | 26.3 | Dallas | 17 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Green Bay Packers | -2.5 | 25.8 | at Tennessee | 19 | 7 | 16 | 23 |
| San Diego Chargers | -3.5 | 25.8 | Miami | 20 | 1 | 29 | 10 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -1.0 | 25.5 | Atlanta | 26 | 31 | 19 | 30 |
| New Orleans Saints | -1.5 | 25.3 | Denver | 1 | 14 | 2 | 8 |
| New York Giants | -2.5 | 24.8 | Cincinnati | 29 | 17 | 4 | 32 |
| Atlanta Falcons | + 1.0 | 24.5 | at Philadelphia | 6 | 16 | 4 | 2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | + 2.5 | 23.8 | at Pittsburgh | 16 | 26 | 9 | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.0 | 23.8 | Kansas City | 11 | 13 | 22 | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | + 1.5 | 23.8 | at New Orleans | 18 | 28 | 20 | 6 |
| Tennessee Titans | + 2.5 | 23.3 | Green Bay | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.0 | 23.0 | Chicago | 9 | 8 | 31 | 5 |
| Miami Dolphins | + 3.5 | 22.3 | at San Diego | 8 | 29 | 3 | 18 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | + 2.5 | 22.3 | at N.Y. Giants | 2 | 20 | 13 | 14 |
| Washington Redskins | -2.5 | 22.3 | Minnesota | 5 | 18 | 1 | 12 |
| Houston Texans | -1.5 | 22.0 | at Jacksonville | 13 | 27 | 21 | 3 |
| Chicago Bears | + 1.0 | 22.0 | at Tampa Bay | 25 | 25 | 22 | 16 |
| New York Jets | -2.5 | 21.8 | Los Angeles | 21 | 9 | 30 | 15 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | + 3.0 | 20.8 | at Carolina | 28 | 5 | 26 | 31 |
| Seattle Seahawks | + 7.5 | 20.5 | at New England | 24 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | + 1.5 | 20.5 | Houston | 2 | 22 | 8 | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | + 2.5 | 19.8 | at Washington | 10 | 23 | 7 | 26 |
| Los Angeles Rams | + 2.5 | 19.3 | at N.Y. Jets | 27 | 11 | 31 | 23 |
| San Francisco 49ers | + 13.5 | 17.5 | at Arizona | 4 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
| Cleveland Browns | + 10.0 | 17.5 | at Baltimore | 12 | 6 | 26 | 9 |
Plays Per Game & Pace of Play
| Offense | Matchup | Team Plays PG | Opp. Plays PG | Exp. Plays PG | Plays PG +/- | Team Pace | Opp. Pace | Exp. Pace | Game Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco | 70.8 | 64.3 | 67.5 | -3.2 | 30.5 | 25.6 | 28.1 | 14 |
| New England Patriots | Seattle | 63.3 | 62.9 | 63.1 | -0.2 | 30.2 | 32.3 | 31.3 | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland | 68.9 | 63.4 | 66.1 | -2.7 | 30.8 | 30.1 | 30.5 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Dallas | 64.1 | 67.0 | 65.6 | 1.4 | 30.0 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | at Tennessee | 65.6 | 63.9 | 64.7 | -0.8 | 29.8 | 33.7 | 31.8 | 4 |
| San Diego Chargers | Miami | 65.0 | 57.0 | 61.0 | -4.0 | 30.1 | 31.6 | 30.9 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Atlanta | 61.7 | 62.6 | 62.2 | 0.5 | 31.6 | 28.7 | 30.2 | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | Denver | 69.9 | 63.3 | 66.6 | -3.3 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 29.2 | 13 |
| New York Giants | Cincinnati | 61.1 | 66.6 | 63.9 | 2.7 | 27.3 | 29.5 | 28.4 | 10 |
| Atlanta Falcons | at Philadelphia | 62.6 | 61.7 | 62.2 | -0.5 | 28.7 | 31.6 | 30.2 | 5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | at Pittsburgh | 67.0 | 64.1 | 65.6 | -1.4 | 31.6 | 30.0 | 30.8 | 7 |
| Carolina Panthers | Kansas City | 67.9 | 64.4 | 66.1 | -1.7 | 31.4 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | at New Orleans | 63.3 | 69.9 | 66.6 | 3.3 | 29.5 | 28.8 | 29.2 | 13 |
| Tennessee Titans | Green Bay | 63.9 | 65.6 | 64.7 | 0.8 | 33.7 | 29.8 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chicago | 69.6 | 60.0 | 64.8 | -4.8 | 30.3 | 30.8 | 30.6 | 6 |
| Miami Dolphins | at San Diego | 57.0 | 65.0 | 61.0 | 4.0 | 31.6 | 30.1 | 30.9 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | at N.Y. Giants | 66.6 | 61.1 | 63.9 | -2.7 | 29.5 | 27.3 | 28.4 | 10 |
| Washington Redskins | Minnesota | 66.4 | 63.4 | 64.9 | -1.5 | 31.7 | 28.6 | 30.2 | 11 |
| Houston Texans | at Jacksonville | 66.4 | 63.0 | 64.7 | -1.7 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 8 |
| Chicago Bears | at Tampa Bay | 60.0 | 69.6 | 64.8 | 4.8 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 30.6 | 6 |
| New York Jets | Los Angeles | 64.4 | 61.1 | 62.8 | -1.6 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 31.3 | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at Carolina | 64.4 | 67.9 | 66.1 | 1.7 | 30.6 | 31.4 | 31.0 | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | at New England | 62.9 | 63.3 | 63.1 | 0.2 | 32.3 | 30.2 | 31.3 | 3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston | 63.0 | 66.4 | 64.7 | 1.7 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | at Washington | 63.4 | 66.4 | 64.9 | 1.5 | 28.6 | 31.7 | 30.2 | 11 |
| Los Angeles Rams | at N.Y. Jets | 61.1 | 64.4 | 62.8 | 1.6 | 31.7 | 30.9 | 31.3 | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | at Arizona | 64.3 | 70.8 | 67.5 | 3.2 | 25.6 | 30.5 | 28.1 | 14 |
| Cleveland Browns | at Baltimore | 63.4 | 68.9 | 66.1 | 2.7 | 30.1 | 30.8 | 30.5 | 12 |