NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
| New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 48 | 22.25 | -3.5 | 48 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | Offense | 20.4 | 23 | 16 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.2 | 5 | 4 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 28.4 | 31 | 31 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 7 | 3 | 15 | New Orleans Saints | 26 | 30 | 24 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 121 | 92 | 9 | 1,137 | Diggs | 112 | 84 | 3 | 903 | |
| Ginn | 95 | 54 | 4 | 752 | Thielen | 92 | 69 | 5 | 967 | |
| Snead | 104 | 72 | 4 | 895 | Treadwell | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Fleener | 82 | 50 | 3 | 631 | Rudolph | 132 | 83 | 7 | 840 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Willie Snead – NO WR – Out (Suspension)
NO Matchup Rating: 6.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 7.0
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The Drew Brees road woes are a thing, but he did play reasonably well in road games a year ago — at least compared to prior seasons. Brees is by no means a shoo-in as a top quarterback in a difficult road matchup against a good Vikings pass defense (this will be a theme with the prime time games this week), but Brees has the ability to throw for 300 yards anytime he steps on the field. I am not going to actively talk you off Brees on the shorter slates, but I will gladly pivot to other options that are either cheaper or have better matchups for the full week slate. Brees has a perfectly reasonable floor, but his ceiling is a little lower in a road game against Minnesota.
Running Back: Here we are with the first REVENGE GAME narrative of the year. The quote is already out there that Adrian Peterson wants to “stick it” to the Vikings this week, and you can bet that one singular quote will drive his ownership percentage to higher levels. The Saints are a pass first team, and Mark Ingram will still get his share of carries. Plus, we never know what they are going to do at the goal line. I would be very careful with using Peterson in any sort of cash game, but I will be a sucker for the narrative on some GPP rosters. I won’t dive in heavy on this unit, as the usage is still too difficult to predict.
Pass Catchers: This spot becomes a little easier to predict following the suspension of Willie Snead. I expect the biggest beneficiary of Snead’s absence to be Coby Fleener, and Fleener has skyrocketed up my tight end rankings for the week on that news. Fleener has made a career out of disappointing us, so I won’t be surprised if he comes away with a poor game. From an opportunity stand point, however, he should be just fine. The targets should be there with Snead out and Michael Thomas being harassed by elite corner Xavier Rhodes. The Vikings can never decide whether they want to use Rhodes to shadow or not, and sometimes the players ignore demands on that front, but Thomas should see Rhodes a good bit in this game. I expect a big year out of Thomas, but this is not the week to take the plunge. If you want to take a GPP shot on big play threat Ted Ginn, I don’t mind doing that here. He has obvious touchdown potential every week, especially with Brees chucking him the ball.
The Takeaway: There is always explosive upside with the Saints offense, though a road game against a tough defense makes them slightly less appealing in this spot. Adrian Peterson is a narrative-based GPP option against his former team, while the passing game is always capable of big things. I will avoid Michael Thomas in a difficult matchup, but I could see using Coby Fleener or Ted Ginn, especially after the suspension of Willie Snead.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: In terms of team-based matchups, the Vikings draw the best matchup of the six teams in the three primetime games. Unfortunately, they aren’t generally the most explosive offense. That might change a little this year, but it is still hard to envision Sam Bradford as a game changer. He is a fine game manager with his short throws and limited mistakes, but the upside just isn’t there. The Saints ranked 30th in the league in DVOA against the pass a year ago, so I could see using Bradford on the shorter slates, but don’t go in expecting miracles. If he throws for 240 yards and two scores, that should be considered a victory.
Running Back: A large part of the reason why this Minnesota offense could be more explosive this year is because of one Dalvin Cook. The dynamic rookie has seen his stock soar almost daily for the last two months, and he is a potential game-changing young running back. We don’t yet know if the Vikings are going to use him as a true three down back, but he has the skill set to be an every down player. He is also capable of taking any run the distance. Of all the players on the shorter slates, Cook is by far my favorite one on the board. The matchup is good, the upside is immense, and the Vikings are home favorites. Running backs on home favorites are generally fantasy gold, and this might be the last chance to get Cook at a reasonable price tag. Don’t shy away from him just because he isn’t a household name in DFS just yet. He is about to be one.
Pass Catchers: There is no shortage of potential options here. With Adam Thielen playing a greater role and operating out of the slot more often, he should see a pile of targets this year. He was quietly a nearly elite option over the second half of last season. Stefon Diggs continues to ooze upside, and Kyle Rudolph is a great red zone tight end target. The Saints have a poor secondary that has been weakened even more by the injury to Delvin Breaux, so there should be plenty of leaks here. I don’t mind targeting any of the three options. Diggs has the most upside, while Thielen is a perfectly fine play in all formats, as he generally comes with a very nice price point.
The Takeaway: It seems strange to say this, but I really like the Vikings, especially on the shorter slates. Dalvin Cook is an elite talent that should thrive at running back this year, and his price is bound to skyrocket possibly as soon as next week. Bradford, Thielen, and Diggs are all strong targets in the passing game, as well, while Kyle Rudolph brings touchdown potential to the tight end position.
| Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | ||||||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | Offense | 20.8 | 21 | 21 | 27 | |||||
| Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 3 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Defense | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 17 | 1 | 19 | Los Angeles Chargers | 15 | 26 | 7 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Allen | 7 | 6 | 0 | 63 | Thomas | 144 | 90 | 5 | 1,083 | |
| Williams | 119 | 69 | 7 | 1,059 | Sanders | 137 | 79 | 5 | 1,032 | |
| Williams | Henderson | |||||||||
| Henry | 53 | 36 | 8 | 482 | Green | 37 | 22 | 1 | 237 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Paxton Lynch – DEN QB – Out (Shoulder)
LAC Matchup Rating: 3.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback: It has been a long time since I actively targeted a passing game against the Broncos, no matter how large or small the slate. I know the Chargers will be available on a lot of three game Sunday night/Monday slates and two game Monday only slates, but I still can’t endorse Philip Rivers in any format. This Broncos pass defense is 100% legit. In two meetings last year, Rivers averaged 223 passing yards per game and totaled just two touchdowns and four interceptions. Those numbers were actually BETTER than what the average quarterback put up, as the Broncos allowed less than 190 passing yards per game for the season as a whole. That is incredible. Move along.
Running Back: If the Chargers want to hang with an elite defense on the road, their best bet is to try to shorten the game and feed Melvin Gordon the ball 25 times. While they won’t likely be the most efficient touches, volume is precious for us in the DFS landscape, and Gordon did manage 205 rushing yards in the two games between these teams a year ago. I will gladly go elsewhere on the full week slates, but Gordon is one of the better running back targets on the primetime-only slates.
Pass Catchers: The wide receiver group is a jumbled mess behind the returning Keenan Allen, and I want no part of them against Talib, Harris, and company. If I had to pluck one person out of here, it would be the upside of Hunter Henry at a cheap price tag at tight end, and I will probably only do that on the extremely short slates. There’s not a lot to love here. I know it’s tempting to try and force something in on the shorter slates, but I would go to other teams before I tried to figure this mess out.
The Takeaway: I have virtually zero interest in the passing game outside of a GPP shot on Hunter Henry on the cheap, but Melvin Gordon is worth a look, especially on the shorter slates. This Broncos defense is not one that you want to pick on to a large degree, and Denver’s defense is obviously (as always) in play.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Denver cornerbacks will get all the media attention, but this Chargers pass defense (I already typed San Diego once and had to erase it) is legit in its own right. They ranked ninth in DVOA against the pass a year ago and have a pair of elite cover corners in Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett. Trevor Siemian is a decent NFL quarterback and will give the Broncos a solid shot to win some football games, but he is by no means elite. In a difficult matchup, this is another easy fade. If you are looking for a quarterback on the Monday-only two game slate, I prefer both quarterbacks in the earlier contest.
Running Back: This is a messy backfield spot that I am likely not going to touch with a ten foot pole. C.J. Anderson appears to be the “starter,” but the Broncos have been reluctant to use him as a true workhorse back. Jamaal Charles impressed in camp and will have a role to start the year, but he is an injury risk on seemingly every single carry. Rookie De’Angelo Henderson has shown himself well, also. Somewhere, Devontae Booker is still lurking. With all that depth and a relatively tough Week 1 matchup, this is an easy fade.
Pass Catchers: I could easily make the same argument to fade the Denver wide receivers for the same reason that I argued to fade the Los Angeles wide receivers (that still sounds weird). Elite corners and average quarterback play just don’t mix. However, there is a caveat on the Denver side. The Broncos at least funnel a huge chunk of targets through their top two wide receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. That gives both of them upside appeal, especially on the shorter slates. I will make my decisions largely based on site-specific pricing here, but I prefer Sanders slightly in a vacuum. Outside of those two, I have zero interest in anyone else.
The Takeaway: This game projects to be one that features difficulty moving the football and a lot of punts. We don’t like punts, unless we are leading in a GPP late on Sunday or Monday. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are in play simply because of the volume they receive and likely low GPP ownership, but I can’t find any other Broncos players that are even slightly intriguing for me in any format.