NFL Grind Down - Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.1 | 9 | 8 | 28 | Offense | 23.4 | 11 | 20 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 20 | 15 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 24.1 | 25 | 25 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 15 | 29 | 23 | 1 | Detroit Lions | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 55 | 43 | 2 | 449 | Nelson | 42 | 26 | 6 | 303 | |
| Jones | 51 | 26 | 3 | 408 | Cobb | 38 | 28 | 1 | 261 | |
| Golladay | 15 | 7 | 2 | 102 | Adams | 54 | 30 | 5 | 351 | |
| Fells | 16 | 11 | 3 | 113 | Bennett | 38 | 24 | 0 | 233 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenny Golladay (DET WR) – Doubtful (Hamstring) / Martellus Bennett (GB TE) – Doubtful (Shoulder)
DET Matchup Rating: 5.5
GB Matchup Rating: 4.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: The Lions are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers a week ago, and they get their second straight prime time draw with a trip to Lambeau Field. Matthew Stafford has been putting up solid yardage numbers lately, but the Lions could not crack a touchdown against the Steelers in that game. The Packers possess nothing more than a league average defense, making Stafford a reasonable play in this game. He is a decent play on the prime time Sunday/Monday night slate, especially in tournaments. Green Bay ranks just 21st in DVOA against the pass, and it is possible that Detroit will be able to control the contest. Similar to Derek Carr in the Sunday night game, Stafford is often forced to throw when the running game goes dormant. He has chucked the ball 97 times over the last two games and has more than 700 passing yards to show for it.
Running Backs: Both Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick struggled against the Steelers, and this running game often gets stuck in neutral. I’ll likely leave this situation alone, though you could certainly consider either back on the shorter slates. The snap ratio will likely continue to be split almost right down the middle. Both are risk/reward GPP options on all sites.
Pass Catchers: Golden Tate surprisingly returned after the bye week without missing a game, but he was still clearly in a lot of pain. It will be difficult to trust him fully until we see that he is at 100% health. It also hurts that this is a Monday night game, but it does not appear that Tate is in danger of missing this contest. He’s a better option in full PPR formats. Kenny Golladay has been sidelined as well, which opened the door for Marvin Jones to have his biggest game of the year last week against the Steelers. He’s a better option in non-PPR or half-PPR formats. That is how I will decipher between Tate and Marvin Jones. T.J. Jones can be used as a punt play on the shorter slates if Kenny Golladay is out again. I have no qualms about attacking the Packers’ suspect secondary, though they have been a bit better than advertised this season.
The Takeaway: The Lions will likely continue to operate as a pass-heavy offense, making Matthew Stafford a viable target, especially on the shorter slates. Golden Tate appears to be good to go despite his injury issues, and he’s a reasonable play on full PPR sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Marvin Jones can be considered on half PPR sites like FanDuel. Keep an eye on the status of Kenny Golladay, and give T.J. Jones a look if he is out again. The backfield is difficult to endorse with Abdullah and Riddick splitting snaps.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Brett Hundley does bring some upside with his legs, and I am still intrigued by his potential over the next few weeks. His passing game needs a lot of work, and the numbers were definitely ugly against the Saints in his first start. However, the Packers have had over two weeks to prepare for this game as they are coming off a bye, and that gives me some confidence in Hundley. He remains affordable everywhere, and the ownership certainly won’t be that high on full week slates. On the shorter slates, I am also inclined to take a chance on his upside. The bust potential is certainly there, but Hundley is an athletic quarterback that will eventually make some plays at this level. Detroit is allowing 255 passing yards per game, which puts them somewhere in the middle of the pack. I’ll take some GPP shots with Hundley this week, though I will stop short of calling him safe for cash games.
Running Backs: This backfield now undoubtedly belongs to Aaron Jones. He has officially Wally Pipped the role of Ty Montgomery, and he certainly deserves it. Jones has been fantastic when he has gotten opportunities this year, and he is coming off a 17/131/1 day against the Saints leading into the bye week. He isn’t the sexiest DFS running back option out there, but I believe he is in play for all slates and game formats this week. He is a solid mid-range option that won’t break the bank, and he played on 80% of the offensive snaps in the last game. He’s a bona fide RB #2 option in any contest.
Pass Catchers: The pass catching group in Green Bay is very hard to trust with Hundley under center. Hundley is not going to be the volume passer that Rodgers was, and Green Bay will certainly lean on the run game more often. Hundley completed just 12 of 25 passes against the Saints. Nobody in this group is safe, but we have clearance prices on everyone, so that makes them enticing, especially in GPPs. However, nobody cleared 20 receiving yards in the last game. Know that the floor with all of these guys is basically zero points. If forced to choose among the group, I’ll side with Jordy Nelson still, and hopefully the bye week has given him a chance to develop some chemistry with Hundley.
SUNDAY UPDATE – Martellus Bennett is doubtful for the Packers. This doesn’t move the needle a whole lot for me, as it’s hard to trust Lance Kendricks or Richard Rodgers in his place.
The Takeaway: I really do think that the bye week and having 15 days to prepare for this game will help Brett Hundley immensely. Expect a better performance this week. Hundley makes for a strong GPP option at quarterback, along with the starting wide receivers. The safest play in Green Bay is Aaron Jones, who has seemingly run away with the starting running back gig. Jones is a viable option in all formats.
Thursday Night Quick Hits – Seahawks/Cardinals
1) Russell Wilson will be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, likely by a large margin. Wilson has put up three huge games in a row, and that is likely to continue with the Seahawks getting absolutely nothing from their running backs. He can be used in any game format, and even the GPP fade is quite risky.
2) Drew Stanton was solid against the 49ers, but he will likely struggle in a much more difficult matchup here, regardless of whether or not Earl Thomas returns for Seattle.
3) Don’t play any of Seattle’s trash heap of running backs.
4) Adrian Peterson is coming off a 39 touch, 167 yard performance against the 49ers. It’s a shame that he didn’t find the end zone, but he played very well and will likely be heavily used moving forward. Seattle has been more vulnerable on the ground this year, making Peterson a logical play on a two game slate. He is certainly better than whatever the Seahawks will throw out there.
5) I don’t expect Patrick Peterson to shadow Doug Baldwin 100% of the time, but even if he does, there’s nothing wrong with using Baldwin. The Seattle wide receiver got the best of Peterson in a Christmas Eve matchup last year, posting a 13/171/1 line on a whopping 19 targets.
6) The other Seattle wide receivers are also in play, with Tyler Lockett being the lower upside option and Paul Richardson being the big play guy. Both carry some risk, and it was Baldwin that had the big day against Washington in Week 9.
7) It’s difficult to trust any of the Arizona wide receivers against a solid Seattle secondary, but Larry Fitzgerald will be a decent play out of the slot if Earl Thomas is sidelined.
8) Jimmy Graham is quite clearly the most talented tight end on the two game slate. He will be very popular, with the likes of Eric Ebron, Jermaine Gresham, Lance Kendricks, and Richard Rodgers being the other options. Graham might clear 60% ownership in some contests.
9) Seattle’s defense hasn’t been that great of late, but they certainly have touchdown upside with Stanton quarterbacking on the other side. They are definitely a viable option on the short slate, though you can certainly make a case for any of the four teams getting a touchdown. Remember, there’s a lot of variance at the position, and you can’t roster a lineup full of eight or nine Seattle players!
10) Salary cap doesn’t figure to be an issue on this slate, so don’t be afraid to be a little contrarian and/or leave some salary on the table, especially in your GPP contests!