NFL Grind Down: Week 10, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
| Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.1 | 8 | 28 | 3 | Offense | 25.0 | 11 | 19 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 9 | 13 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 23.8 | 16 | 20 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 9 | 2 | 16 | 9 | Buffalo Bills | 15 | 18 | 29 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 26 | 19 | 3 | 315 | Marshall | 86 | 54 | 5 | 730 | |
| Woods | 37 | 26 | 2 | 295 | Decker | 54 | 36 | 6 | 472 | |
| Hogan | 29 | 20 | 2 | 235 | Kerley | 23 | 15 | 2 | 145 | |
| Clay | 52 | 35 | 2 | 356 | Cumberland | 13 | 5 | 0 | 77 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins (BUF, Probable), Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall, Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ, Probable)
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: As long as Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,200, DK $5,500) remains as affordable as he is, he’s going to be a viable option in most formats on most weeks. If you’re playing the Thursday games in Week 10, he’ll have to be a player you consider. He has established a floor of around 15 points thanks to his efficient passing and dynamic running skills, and has upside beyond that should he find the end zone more often than usual. Over the last three weeks, the Jets have allowed nine touchdowns from opposing quarterbacks, while all three passers (Brady, Carr, Bortles) went over 330 yards as well. Football Outsiders and numberFire both rank the Jets as the sixth-best pass defense when adjusted for level of opponent, but Taylor ranks fourth in the NFL in passer rating, so he would be the type of quarterback who could play fairly well against the Jets and still not sink their opponent-adjusted rankings. He’s in play in all formats thanks to his very affordable price.
Running Game: No player at running back on the Bills will be a great play against the Jets, who rank first in Football Outsiders DVOA against the run, and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. But Latavius Murray and Ryan Mathews both had 100-yard games against this defense, so there is still hope for a tournament lineup or two with a Buffalo rusher of choice. With LeSean McCoy (FD $7,400, DK $5,500) unlikely to be 100%, and I may just avoid the situation entirely. If there are lots of positive reports about his status, he’s worth a GPP flier or two, as he’s shown glimpses of the “Shady of old” who used to be a weekly plug-and-play. If he’s ruled out thanks to a late setback, Karlos Williams (FD $6,100, DK $3,800) will get a chance to continue his touchdown-scoring ways, and is very much worth a spot on a tournament roster or two.
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins (FD $6,900, DK $5,000) is talking as if he’ll play this week, as he’s relishing the opportunity to go up against Darrelle Revis. Pro Football Focus’ fourth-ranked corner in the NFL will be a challenge for Watkins, and despite my concerns about Sammy as an all-around player, he has special athleticism and ability and will likely get past Revis on one or two occasions. However, the chances of those plays resulting in a target, catch, and big play probably aren’t worth it for your daily fantasy lineups. Revis is among the league’s elite in fantasy points allowed per route run, per PFF, and doesn’t face many targets as opposing quarterbacks have learned to throw away from him. When Tyrod has been under center this season, Charles Clay (FD $5,400, DK $4,100) has been his preferred target. Todd Bowles’ defense is historically weak against tight ends, and while we haven’t seen that happen all that often this season, the upside is there for such a high-volume player at the position. I put Clay in the same category as Karlos Williams if McCoy is out, as they’re worth a tournament roster spot if you’re entering several lineups on Thursday. Percy Harvin was Taylor’s preferred receiver early in the season, but since he’s on the sideline, we can expect Robert Woods (FD $4,900, DK $3,600) and Chris Hogan (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) to split the rest of the work that doesn’t go to Watkins, Clay, or Taylor’s legs. Neither holds much appeal due to inconsistent volume.
The Takeaway: The Bills face a touch matchup against a defense that ranks very well in most categories we consider when analyzing a team for fantasy purposes. But they have affordably priced players who seem to be in a decent enough spot to earn a few points, led by their quarterback, who remains too cheap for his floor and upside.
New York Jets
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,200, DK $5,100) played through a hand injury to produce 272 passing yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville, but faces a much tougher test this week as the Bills have an above-average pass defense (when compared to Jacksonville’s bottom-five secondary). The New York quarterback has at least two touchdowns in six of his seven full-length appearances this season, and while his rushing upside is likely limited as he takes himself out of harm’s way due to his injury, he still has solid passing upside. It’s hard to justify him on either site with his price coming in so similar to his counterpart on Thursday night, but that should keep him a bit under-owned and viable for tournaments. The Bills have allowed six of eight quarterbacks they’ve faced to throw for multiple touchdowns, so the odds are in Fitzpatrick’s favor to keep his two-touchdown run going. He’s worthy of a spot on one or two GPP lineups.
Running Game: The New York Jets running game has a clear-cut number-one option, and that’s Chris Ivory (FD $7,000, DK $5,900). He’s developed a new facet to his game, catching the ball out of the backfield, and that has further added to his utility in the offense, and his value for fantasy players. Through the first four seasons of his NFL career, Ivory caught five passes. In the past two years, he’s caught 32. He’s not a PPR darling or anything, but the ability to be productive in the passing game keeps him on the field and gives him additional touches. He scored twice against the Jaguars last week, but their formidable run defense held him to a terrible 26 yards on 23 carries. The Bills are on the opposite side of the run-defense spectrum, ranking 26th according to Football Outsiders (the Jags rank second), mainly due to six touchdowns allowed in eight games, and despite a modest 3.9 yards allowed per carry. Ivory is risky, but he’s had poor rushing totals over the past couple of weeks, so his popularity may be down as well. I consider him GPP-only.
Pass Catchers: There may come a day when Eric Decker (FD $6,800, DK $5,300) doesn’t catch a touchdown, but I’m not sure I want to be the one betting on when his run of scoring will end. The consistent New York wideout has scored in six of seven appearances this season, with his lone miss coming against New England. Decker spends a lot of his time in the slot, where he’ll be covered by Buffalo’s Nickell Roby, who is easily their worst corner, according to PFF. And according to Football Outsiders, number one and number two wideouts have struggled to produce against the Bills defense, while other wideouts have had above-average success. That sets up favorably for Decker, who is the team’s number two option in the passing game, but plays a role normally held by tertiary options. Brandon Marshall (FD $7,900, DK $7,400) gets the toughest matchup, as he’ll see plenty of Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. But he is a target magnet and will still have his chances, even in a tough matchup. Both are worthwhile in GPP contests. No other New York pass catcher should be considered in this one.
The Takeaway: The Jets are home favorites in what should be a competitive but low-scoring affair. No one in this game outside of Tyrod Taylor should be in your cash lineups, but Eric Decker is the closest to being worthy of that distinction. Brandon Marshall, Chris Ivory and Ryan Fitzpatrick can all be used in a few GPP lineups. And either defense has the opportunity to force turnovers, get sacks, and hold their opponent to a small total, so you can use either one in Thursday contests.