NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Saturday
Promo Alert! Yahoo is offering bonuses for new and existing users. Promo code “GRINDERS” will get existing members a $25 re-deposit bonus, while new sign-ups can receive a 100% deposit bonus, free $10 entry into the week’s $300,000 NFL Baller GPP and more. See full details and try Yahoo this weekend!
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
| New York Jets | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Saturday – 8:25 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 42 | 22.5 | 3 | 42 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 10 | 15 | 12 | Offense | 17.7 | 30 | 29 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.5 | 16 | 4 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 19.7 | 10 | 22 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 28 | 4 | 5 | New York Jets | 14 | 4 | 20 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 140 | 89 | 11 | 1,187 | Bryant | 63 | 27 | 2 | 351 | |
| Decker | 107 | 66 | 9 | 875 | Williams | 69 | 38 | 3 | 592 | |
| Kerley | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | Beasley | 59 | 42 | 3 | 417 | |
| Cumberland | 14 | 5 | 0 | 77 | Witten | 89 | 65 | 2 | 593 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: N/A
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0 – DAL Matchup Rating: 1.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: The Cowboys love to slow the game down, which makes them appear to be a better defense than most on a fantasy points allowed basis. But despite a ranking of 26th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, this is a very average pass defense (15th Football Outsiders, 14th numberFire). This means Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,800, DK $5,400) is the best option for the Thursday-Saturday slate, and a secondary option for the weekend slate. The man otherwise known as Fitzmagic has multiple touchdowns in his last six outings, and has three straight games without an interception thrown. If he’s able to throw the ball to the right team on Saturday, he’ll find success, but with limited upside.
Running Game: The Cowboys have a real issue stopping opposing running backs. Even though Sean Lee is one of the better middle linebackers in the NFL, the Cowboys lack in depth and talent in their front seven in such a way that leaves them vulnerable to the ground game. They’ve given up a touchdown per week to opposing backs, and Eddie Lacy and James Starks ran all over them in Week 14. This sets up well for Chris Ivory (FD $7,200, DK $5,200), who got back to his high-volume ways in a big win over the Titans last week. He didn’t score, but he ran well enough to show that his sporadic lack of involvement in the offense is the only risk when it comes to rostering the powerful back. With this game likely resulting in a New York victory, look for Ivory to touch the ball 20 times, with one of those being a score. He is the top overall play on this two-game slate, and a solid play for the full weekend of games. Bilal Powell remains a part of the passing game, but his volume is shaky. I like him more than Charles Sims because the matchup is better, as the Cowboys are among the worst at defending backs in the passing game. He’s a flier for large tournaments.
Pass Catchers: The Jets love daily fantasy players. Much like the Marc Trestman era Bears, who had four main players to target on offense, the Jets have a clear quartet of top options who dominate the touches. Brandon Marshall (FD $8,500, DK $7,600) and Eric Decker (FD $7,500, DK $6,300) are the two pass catchers to roll with, as the duo saw 20 combined targets in the last game. No other receiver or tight end had more than three. Neither outside corner can keep up with Marshall, and with talented rookie Byron Jones playing some defense against slot receivers, Marshall is the one with the preferred matchup this time around. Both are still viable, especially on the thin Thursday-Saturday slate.
The Takeaway: The Jets have an easy offense to figure out for daily fantasy, and Chris Ivory has the best situation of any player suiting up prior to Sunday kickoff this week. Fitzpatrick, Marshall and Decker are core plays on the two-game slate, and viable tournament options for the full weekend slate.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Outside of a three-touchdown outing against the Eagles, Matt Cassel (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) has two touchdown passes and five interceptions in six games against “not the Eagles” as a starter for the Cowboys. He has passing totals of 93, 97 and 114, and the Cowboys have scored 14 points or fewer in four of the seven games in which he’s thrown a pass. Much like Case Keenum, the low floor and ceiling here removes all interest, and this is multiplied by a tough matchup with the Jets.
Running Game: Darren McFadden (FD $6,800, DK $4,900) is the lone glimmer of hope for the Dallas offense, but this week he’ll be running against the league’s best run defense. Football Outsiders rank the Jets as the best at stopping the run, which is backed up by New York allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position on the year, and ranking second in numberFire’s run defense rankings as well. McFadden didn’t get the volume that makes him so valuable last week, failing to catch a pass for the first time since the first week of October. Combine this waning volume with a tough matchup, and I will pass on McFadden this week.
Pass Catchers: There is no reason to roster a Dallas receiver or tight end with how limited the passing game has become with Cassel under center. Even on the Thursday-Saturday slate, I would take any New York or Tampa Bay option plus Tavon Austin before considering Dez Bryant (FD $6,900, DK $6,000) or any other Dallas player at this position. The Cowboys run a slow, inefficient offense that could not be less ideal for DFS.
The Takeaway: The Jets defense is the best play when considering the Dallas offense in this game. There’s just no upside or potential for a team that plays slow and is not efficient or productive.