NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Page Four
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
| Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 10 | 14 | 15 | Offense | 27.0 | 6 | 30 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.8 | 7 | 13 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 6 | 20 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 6 | 22 | 7 | 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 4 | 28 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 56 | 36 | 1 | 384 | Brown | 13 | 8 | 1 | 122 | |
| Agholor | 17 | 8 | 0 | 105 | Ginn | 29 | 13 | 3 | 224 | |
| Huff | 14 | 11 | 1 | 136 | Funchess | 18 | 5 | 0 | 62 | |
| Celek | 6 | 5 | 2 | 60 | Olsen | 45 | 24 | 3 | 374 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Nelson Agholor (PHI, Doubtful), Riley Cooper (PHI, Questionable)
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: This is the week. Either Sam Bradford (FD $7,700, DK $6,100) will continue to play poorly, and I will have been justified in moving on, or he’ll break my heart after trusting him for almost two months and not getting the sort of return I was expecting. I just cannot continue to go to a quarterback who looks so incompetent for most of the game, and who has turned the ball over so often. The Panthers have a top-three pass defense per DVOA and are among the five best teams at limiting quarterback fantasy points, so if Bradford is going to recreate his one good game against Washington, it won’t be in this matchup. I’m avoiding the Philadelphia quarterback completely.
Running Game: Is DeMarco Murray (FD $7,600, DK $6,400) back? After a terrible start to the season as a runner, Murray has carried the ball 20 and 21 times for 83 and 112 yards respectively over the last two weeks, with two rushing touchdowns. He’s also still involved in the passing game, catching ten passes over the last two games. He’ll now face a Carolina run defense that ranks 12th in points allowed to opposing backs, and 24th in numberFire’s NEP rankings against the run. Doug Martin was able to shake off a slow start to his season against Carolina, while Mark Ingram was able to pick up a healthy amount of total yards and find the end zone in this matchup, as well. Murray will be very low owned, much lower than you’d expect from a talented back coming off of two good games in a row. He’s a great tournament pick.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,600, DK $6,400) is the only pass catcher to consider on the Philly offense. He’ll avoid star corner Josh Norman (who usually doesn’t move inside to the slot), but that may not be enough to make him more than just a tournament play. His hands have been unreliable this year, and his quarterback isn’t playing well on a consistent basis, making him no more than a tournament option among many others at the receiver position. The Panthers have done a good job limiting non-elite tight ends this season, and have outside corners capable of shutting down the below-average receivers the Eagles have to offer.
The Takeaway: It’s time to move on from this Philadelphia offense until proven wrong. Sam Bradford isn’t playing well enough, nor is Jordan Matthews, so I’ll restrict my exposure to DeMarco Murray and hope he’s able to succeed against a strong but occasionally beatable Carolina defense.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: The Eagles’ quick tempo should create lots of opportunities in this game, and their tough run defense will keep the ball in the hands of Cam Newton (FD $8,100, DK $6,600) more often than not. Despite having a pass defense that ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass, the Eagles have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in four of six games this season. Combine that with Newton’s strong play and ability to run and increase his fantasy football floor, and you have a very appealing option for Week 7. He’s in play in any format, as 250 passing yards, 40 rushing yards and a couple of touchdowns will have him among the top scorers at the position this weekend.
Running Game: The Eagles have held opposing running backs to the fourth-fewest points in fantasy football this season. Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,700, DK $4,000) is far too touchdown dependent to trust outside of tournaments, as he’s only topped 11 FanDuel points once so far this season, but that one game did come against the very tough Seattle defense. I’m not going to bank on that as something to expect from Stewart, as he combined for under 17 FanDuel points in his previous three games. Stick to Newton if you want running game exposure from the Panthers.
Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen (FD $6,400, DK $6,100) is the best pass catcher on this Philadelphia defense, but the Eagles have held tight ends in check so far this season. They haven’t faced a ton of great competition, and they allow tons of points to receivers, so I’m not ruling out Olsen. I’m just going to limit my exposure to him to tournaments. I would love to be able to recommend a receiver, but when Devin Funchess (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) leads wideouts in targets for a team, I have trouble finding much worth writing about. Ted Ginn (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) is my favorite wideout on this team, and he could break through this week, but he’s a tournament stack with Newton and not someone to otherwise rely upon too heavily.
The Takeaway: Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are your top plays here, with Jonathan Stewart and Ted Ginn viable in tournaments. The defense is also in play, since the Eagles aren’t afraid of turning the ball over. You can even try for the “double dip” by rostering Ginn and the Carolina defense in hopes that he returns a punt for a score, giving you points for both the CAR special teams and Ginn as the returner.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals
| Baltimore Ravens | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 48 | 20.25 | -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 11 | 12 | 11 | Offense | 33.8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 27 | 29 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 8 | 18 | 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 32 | 11 | 31 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 57 | 36 | 3 | 510 | Fitzgerald | 54 | 43 | 6 | 583 | |
| Aiken | 35 | 18 | 2 | 265 | Floyd | 25 | 13 | 1 | 154 | |
| Perriman | Brown | 45 | 33 | 2 | 510 | |||||
| Gillmore | 19 | 13 | 2 | 181 | Fells | 12 | 9 | 2 | 146 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Maxx Williams, Chris Givens (BAL, Questionable), John Brown (ARI, Questionable)
BAL Matchup Rating: 3.0
ARI Matchup Rating: 8.0
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: According to numberFire and Football Outsiders, the Cardinals have the NFL’s fourth-best defense. According to Vegas, the Ravens are going to get blown out in the desert and will struggle to score two or three touchdowns. I know Joe Flacco (FD $7,500, DK $5,700) has posted big games in the past, and his price seems reasonable, but I just cannot recommend him in this matchup. The most comparable defense he faced this season, the Broncos, held him to 117 yards with two interceptions, and while I don’t think he’ll play that poorly on Monday night, I can’t rule it out, either.
Running Game: The Cardinals rank third in DVOA against the run, and the Ravens like to steal opportunities from Justin Forsett (FD $7,100, DK $6,100) around the goal line. There’s just no upside in a tough matchup, especially with an offense that doesn’t hand out goal line carries as liberally as it should.
Pass Catchers: I will never tell you Steve Smith (FD $6,900, DK $6,200) isn’t worth a spot in your lineups. Martavis Bryant and Tavon Austin both scored twice against this tough Arizona defense, and I could see Smith doing the same, but simply based on the type of competitor he is, and not based on any numbers or rational explanations. Otherwise, I am totally disinterested in this passing offense in a tough road game on Monday night.
The Takeaway: The Ravens are the easiest team to avoid this week, as they face the toughest defense on the weekend slate and lack talent at the skill positions.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Carson Palmer (FD $8,200, DK $6,700) faces a defense that ranks first in points allowed to quarterbacks, third in points allowed to receivers, and below average in DVOA and numberFire’s rankings against the pass. The biggest concern for Palmer will be his relevance in a game that could get out of hand, but he threw for three touchdowns in an easy win against New Orleans, four scores (on only 24 attempts) in a dismantling of Chicago, and three touchdowns (on 11 attempts!!!) against the Lions. It’s possible that this incredible efficiency and good fortune could run dry sooner or later, but I’m not prepared for that day to come this Monday. If he throws 25 or more passes against the Ravens, he should easily get to 250 yards and multiple touchdowns, with obvious upside for more if things fall into place correctly, or if the game is more competitive than Vegas would lead us to believe.
Running Game: Chris Johnson (FD $6,900, DK $4,300) is still the starting running back for the Cardinals, holding back both his younger counterparts with impressive performances as the lead back. But Arizona will rotate through their backs, and will have a tougher time against a good Baltimore run defense (12th in DVOA, ninth in numberFire rankings), so I’m not sure I want to risk the limited workload of Johnson, nor the very uncertain roles of Andre Ellington (FD $5,200, DK $4,300) and David Johnson (FD $5,300, DK $3,500).
Pass Catchers: Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,800, DK $7,400) and John Brown (FD $6,700, DK $5,500) are the favored targets for Palmer, with the former possessing the ability to get open underneath, and the latter breaking big plays while increasing his role on shorter throws recently. There are no Baltimore corners capable of stopping either player. Michael Floyd (FD $4,900, DK $3,200) has worked his way back into the Arizona offense, catching a touchdown last week and seeing a couple more close calls in the end zone (an out-of-bounds catch and a touchdown called back due to pass interference). That keeps his price down, and his ownership down, but proves his potential as the forgotten member of this receiving corps.
The Takeaway: Carson Palmer and one of Fitzgerald or Brown combine for a cash game foundation or a tournament stack, with Floyd providing an under-the-radar way to get a piece of an offense everyone is going to flock to in daily fantasy football this week.