NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 4, Chiefs at Bengals
In this week’s “Matchup of the Week,” some of RotoGrinders’ top NFL analysts break down a Sunday showdown between the Chiefs and Bengals. This game features superstars on both offenses and some key matchups to target, and could be pivotal in daily fantasy contests this weekend.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
Andy Dalton is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Okay, not really. But if we are most interested in fantasy (we are), he has been one of the most dominant QBs to start the season. And guess who’s coming to town? That’s right: the can’t-seem-to-figure-out-how-to-stop-quarterbacks (or top receivers) Chiefs.
Where things get tricky here, of course, is the balance of “what should happen” and “what is likely to happen.”
What should happen is this: Andy Reid should try to control the game by running the ball, throwing short passes, and allowing plenty of time to run off the clock between each play. In this way, he could protect his pass defense and could keep his team within striking distance on the road.
What should also happen is this: Hue Jackson should realize that the Chiefs are nearly impossible to run on right now, and he should, therefore, open up the offense from the start – sticking Giovani Bernard in the backfield, and letting Dalton fling the ball around the yard.
The problem, of course, is that most NFL coaches are hard-headed. Very few coaches adapt as quickly as they should.
A great example (and a slight digression; but hey, the whole point of my articles is to “teach you how to fish,” right? – rather than just “giving you fish”) is what Kyle Shanahan is doing with the Falcons’ offense. I always thought of Dirk Koetter as a pretty good offensive coordinator, but for several years, we saw Julio Jones usage be way more unpredictable than it ever should have been. We saw Julio get underused in the red zone. We saw Koetter force the ball toward Roddy White. This season, however, Leonard Hankerson has already passed Roddy in the target pecking order, and Julio is being fed a historic level of targets. I started thinking about this when I realized my concept of Devonta Freeman – and his inability to be a truly effective NFL back – was influenced by my perception of him under Dirk Koetter. We saw last week what he can do with Kyle Shanahan running the scheme.
Very few NFL coaches approach things the way Shanahan does. Bruce Arians; Josh McDaniels; perhaps Scott Linehan…who else? Anyone? That might be about it; everyone else “has a system,” and they force players to fit into that system, rather than adapting their system to suit their players; everyone else has a way they attack a defense, and they never adjust as much as they should to “attacking an opponent’s weakest points.”
Hue Jackson is about as close to those coaches mentioned above as you can find, but I still do not trust his “coaching guts” enough to assume he’ll come out pass-heavy from the start. If he did, that would be great, as he could put up some early points, and could help his defense by forcing Alex Smith into “catchup, mistake-heavy” mode. Ultimately, however, I expect Jackson to come out with a balanced attack, and I expect the first couple Bengals drives to stall as they are unable to run the ball up the middle against the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs – who should also come out passing – are certain to not do this. The Bengals are not bad against the pass (they are above-average), but they are tremendous against the run with Geno Atkins fully healthy in the middle once more. The Chiefs would optimally want to come out with a plan to attack the Bengals with short, quick passes – using the run to keep the defense honest and create some misdirection on passes, but ultimately relying on passes to move the ball (screens and dump-offs to Jamaal Charles, quick slants and outs to Jeremy Maclin, and passes up the seam and in the flat to Travis Kelce). Obviously, however, we know Andy Reid will not do this, so I also expect the first few Chiefs possessions to stall.
Barring any big, chunk plays, we should see a first quarter of punts and field goals. Fear not! By the second quarter, I expect Hue Jackson to lean more pass heavy; as soon as he does, the Bengals will start finding success.
This is where A.J. Green comes in.
I know, I’m not telling you anything you do not know already by saying you should look to Green this week; after all, Kansas City is a bottom-10 pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and they are bottom-six according to Pro Football Focus’ grades. They also just lost Phillip Gaines (one of their starting corners). But just because it’s obvious does not mean it’s wrong.
If you want to go under-the-radar from this game, Tyler Eifert will obviously be involved, but given the fact that there are other, more appealing tight ends in other games, I plan to stay away from him; instead, the guy I am really intrigued by is Marvin Jones. Ultimately, I do not expect the Chiefs to cover Green well enough for Dalton to have to spread the ball around a ton, but Jones has basically moved into a three-way tie with Eifert and Gio as the number two option in the passing game. He makes for a sneaky tournament play, with some major touchdown upside.
Finally, on this side of the ball: I love Andy Dalton as an under-owned play. He’s a strong option in both cash games and tourneys; on a pure “total points” basis, I have him ranked higher than Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr, and each of those guys is getting a lot more love and attention than Dalton this week. When it’s all said and done, I expect Dalton to be the one with more points.
The Chiefs face a tough battle, between playing on the road, facing the Bengals’ run defense, and having Andy Reid as their coach and Alex Smith as their quarterback. I will not be looking here myself, outside of Travis Kelce (who will have to be leaned on as the game progresses, and as the Chiefs are forced to play “catch up”), but I do think Jamaal Charles makes for a sneaky option in tournaments, as he should be involved in the pass game once the Chiefs fall behind.
Of course…I say “sneaky.” How sneaky will Charles really be? He had a big game last week, and he’s Jamaal Charles; that means his ownership will probably be higher than it should be, given the matchup, which makes him not so sneaky at all, and makes him a viable fade candidate. I think the Chiefs will be able to keep things close enough that the Bengals keep passing into the fourth quarter, and I think the Bengals will have a hard enough time running the ball that they will mostly keep things in the air, but I do not see enough reliable fantasy goodness on the Chiefs’ side to want to go there myself.
My favorite plays: Andy Dalton, A.J. Green
Solid plays: Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert
Sneaky plays: Marvin Jones, Giovani Bernard
Relevant guys I have no personal interest in using: Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, Jeremy Hill (Hill could fall in for a touchdown, but he is massively unlikely to post a high enough yardage total to make him a +EV play; for those who don’t know, “+EV” means “positive expected value”; in other words, “If we used this exact guy in this exact matchup 1000 times, would he help us make money over that large sample size, or would he lose us money over that large sample size?” – in this case, given the matchup and expected usage, Hill is -EV, meaning he would lose you money over the long run in this matchup, with his expected usage)
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
This is our “matchup of the week” for Week 4, but not because Vegas is predicting all that many points. The total for this game is set at 45, and with a 4-point spread favoring the home-standing Bengals, that means a 24-20 game is implied by the smart folks at the sportsbooks. There are teams this weekend with higher implied point totals, but they’re playing in games that should be blowouts (Colts over Jaguars, Seahawks over Lions, Packers over 49ers). By picking a game with a decent total and a competitive spread, we can target the star players and top values on both sides and feel confident that we’ll get four quarters of competitive football featuring the guys we roster.
Matchups by the Numbers
The Bengals are favored to win this game and score 24 points in large part thanks to the flaws displayed by Kansas City when it comes to defending opposing quarterbacks. Even before Aaron Rodgers dropped five touchdowns on the Chiefs, they allowed Peyton Manning to throw for 256 yards and three scores in a disappointing loss, and gave up over 300 yards and two touchdowns to the two-headed monstrosity under center for Houston composed of Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. This is a far cry from last year, when the Chiefs allowed more than 250 passing yards in a game only three times, and didn’t allow three touchdown passes from anyone not named Peyton Manning. The Chiefs rank 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass so far this year, as JMToWin mentions above, and don’t grade out well in pass coverage as a whole, either. On the surface, this seems like an exploitable matchup, but when we look into the receiving matchups we may see cause for concern.
On the other side, the Bengals lucked out a bit in Week 1 by dodging Derek Carr, who left the game due to an injury, and instead allowed Matt McGloin to throw a couple of short touchdowns in garbage time. In Week 2, they allowed an efficient performance from Philip Rivers, and in Week 3, they gave up a ton of yards and two scores to division rival Joe Flacco. As a team, however, they rank 11th in DVOA and are middle of the road in terms of points allowed to the QB position thanks to forced turnovers and no blowup games with big touchdown totals through three weeks. This isn’t a great matchup for Alex Smith and the Chiefs, but it isn’t one to be discouraged by, either.
Against running backs, these teams are a different story. Both teams rank in the top three in DVOA against the run, and while the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest points to opposing backs so far this year, the Bengals are middle of the road in that category. But the underlying numbers suggest that these are not run defenses to mess with, and a glance at the game log against the Bengals reveals that two garbage time touchdown receptions by Marcel Reece count as a large chunk of their points allowed to “running backs.” Outside of Reece’s antics, the Bengals have not let a running back in the end zone this season, and have earned their high ranking in DVOA and Pro Football Focus grades against ground games. There are no smoke and mirrors covering the Chiefs’ strong run defense. They’ve got a talented front seven and can stop running backs of all types.
As for the receivers, the matchups on the outside may be the key to figuring out which players to targets. One key figure in last year’s successful pass defense for the Chiefs, corner Sean Smith, will return from suspension this week, but he’ll join a group of corners that have struggled so far this season and that will be without rising star Phillip Gaines, who is out for the year with a knee injury. Last season, Smith had his ups and downs on his way to being one of Pro Football Focus’ highest rated corners, with six games allowing a passer rating over 95 on targets thrown his way, but also seven games with a passer rating allowed under 70. He’s beatable, something I noted when watching his film during his free agency before joining the Chiefs, but he’s also great at making plays on the ball and locking up talented receivers.
As for the Bengals, they have veteran corner Adam Jones playing well on one side, but according to PFF grades, don’t have any other players in the defensive backfield who are off to a hot start. With Jones primarily playing one side, and the Chiefs moving their receivers around (and possessing a matchup nightmare at tight end), Jones’ presence will be a minor annoyance, not a threat to wide receiver productivity.
Players to Target
With both run defenses standing strong, we would only consider star players at running back in such a tough matchup. The Chiefs have one of those in Jamaal Charles, and he’ll face a defense that has allowed some success to backs in the passing game thus far this season. He’s always in play, but will be popular after last week’s effort. The Bengals seem to be going with a two-headed monster in the backfield, and if I’m targeting one, it’s Giovani Bernard with his involvement in the passing game, but the Chiefs don’t have a history of allowing many yards or points through the air to opposing runners, either.
The points in this one will come from the passing game, and thankfully there are pretty easy targets on each team if we’re looking for likely scorers through the air. Andy Dalton has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league to start the season, and will get the ball out of his hands quickly (Dalton has the second-shortest time to throw in the league, according to Pro Football Focus) and into the hands of his receivers, helping to nullify a strong Kansas City pass rush. Those receivers will likely be A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, his top options on the year with 25 and 20 targets respectively. Marvin Jones is the only other Bengal receiver who sees enough targets to merit consideration, especially considering his involvement in the red zone. But Green and Eifert are the top plays, either in combination with Dalton or without, and Smith’s return for Kansas City doesn’t scare me away from the top Cincinnati receivers at all.
As for Smith and the Chiefs, his low price makes him appealing, but his limited upside makes him a less-than-stellar option for tournaments. His receivers, however, do have appeal, and just like the Bengals, we have a high concentration of targets between the top receiver and the tight end. Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce have seen 27 and 21 targets, respectively. Kelce is a huge threat in the red zone who is involved in the passing game more and more as he develops as a receiver, to the point where he’s now the target on screens and designed plays. He’s a top option at tight end on a Gronk-less slate, and Maclin is a tournament play with a low floor thanks to Smith’s reluctance to get the ball downfield, but with the constant threat of a big play thanks to his speed.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Cash Game Play of the Week
Top-rated grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double up lineups.
I always hate when one of my favorite plays for the week is coming off of a monster fantasy outing. Thanks to recency bias, his ownership is going to be much higher than if he was coming off of a poor outing. Luckily, we don’t need to worry about ownership levels in cash games, as we are only concerned with putting the best possible lineup together. Green draws a favorable matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have allowed the most fantasy points of any team to wide receivers this season. Additionally, the Chiefs are graded as having the seventh-worst pass coverage in the NFL (Pro Football Focus). We generally don’t like to chase points in daily fantasy, but we shouldn’t automatically fade a player just because he is coming off of a big week. Look for Green to see a heavy dose of targets in Week 4, as the Chiefs’ stout run defense may force the Bengals to air it out.
STLCardinals84’s GPP Play of the Week
STLCardinals84 is a leading tournament player who can provide you with the high-upside plays you need to take down a big GPP.
After blowing up in the first two games, Tyler Eifert went quiet last week. He was asked to block more often and did not have a single catch on three targets. Most players will shy away from Eifert after last week’s bagel, and that makes him a great target in tournament games this week. He will surely be more involved in the game plan against the Chiefs, and a big day would not be surprising. It doesn’t hurt that A.J. Green is there to take defensive attention away from Eifert, too. Combine that with Andy Dalton sudden resurgence here in the early going, and there’s no wonder that Eifert is off to a good start. Take advantage of the lower ownership percentage that will surely come from the poor performance last week, and ride Eifert to glory in Week Four. This guy is super talented.