NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Betting Picks for Bills at Texans
Both the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are essentially coming off a bye week with nothing to play for in Week 17. The AFC South champion Texans and fifth seed Buffalo Bills meet in the Wild Card Round to open the 2020 NFL Playoffs in Houston. Early action has moved the line in the favor of Houston bettors. Who will move on to the AFC divisional round?
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NFL Wild Card Betting Picks — Bills at Texans
58% of bets backing the 49ers and 81% of bets are on the over, per VegasInsider.com.
NFL Super Bowl 2020 Odds
NFL Super Bowl 54 Winner
Houston Texans +3500 – FanDuel Sportsbooks
Buffalo Bills +5500 – PointsBet
AFC Champion
Houston Texans +2000 – DraftKings Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills +3000 – PointsBet
NFL Wild Card Round Injury Report and Analysis
The Texans’ return to the NFL Playoffs should very well mark the return of J.J. Watt. Watt was limited in practice on Wednesday but seems prepared to factor into Saturday’s contest. Will Fuller — also limited in practice on Wednesday — is questionable for the opening game. Fuller could be the key to Houston’s offense. Without Fuller this season, Deshaun Watson possesses a measly 7.4 average depth of target.
Opposite Fuller is another question mark as Levi Wallace was limited in Wednesday’s practice after spraining his ankle in the regular-season finale. Wallace nearly reached shutdown status towards the end of the regular season and would be an impactful loss — especially if Fuller is able to go. Fuller makes for an interesting DFS play for this weekend’s Wild Card Round slate at FanDuel and DraftKings if Wallace cannot play.
The Buffalo Bills closed the regular season 10-6 with an asterisk after they sat most of their starters against the Jets in Week 17. The Buffalo Bills season was built on defense and the maturation of young quarterback, Josh Allen. Allen improved as a passer — throwing 20 touchdowns to nine interceptions as well as making improvements in nearly every passing statistic. Allen accumulated 510 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns as a complement to his improvement as a passer.
The Bills defense finished in the top five of the NFL in categories such as opponent points per game, average yards per play, and passing yards per game. Buffalo allowed 4.2 yards per rushing play but otherwise were pretty stout throughout the season. As a result, twelve of the Bills’ games stayed under the implied total.
The Houston Texans won the AFC South but do not appear to be entering the playoffs in the same fashion as their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. Surely, Week 17 was meaningless but the Texans were not impressive against the Buccaneers or Broncos down the stretch. The Texans averaged 20.3 points per game in the three final contests of the season. The Texans’ offense has not moved the ball well — finishing in the middle of the pack in yards per play, passing yards per play, and rushing yards per play if you don’t include Watson’s exploits. We can certainly throw the home team’s final game out as health was far more important to the Texans then a final win. The status of Will Fuller is extremely important as Fuller represents the downfield threat that opens up the passing game for Deshaun Watson. I will be glued to wild card round injury report as the week continues.
NFL Wild Card Betting Pick — Bills at Texans
The Buffalo Bills were 6-2 outright on the road this season. A stalwart defense travels well in the playoffs. The Bills will look to control the game and let their passing defense put the clamps on Deshaun Watson and company. With only 32.1 passing attempts and 29.1 rushing attempts per game, the Bills represent true balance.
Perhaps, my futures bets on the Buffalo Bills are clouding my judgment. Perhaps, the recent form of the Texans sans Will Fuller is weighing on my thought process too much. That said, the Bills seem to be built for the postseason and even more so for games outdoors. Give me the balanced Bills outright to open the playoffs.
The Pick: Buffalo Moneyline +130 (FanDuel)
NFL Wild Card Betting Picks — Touchdown Scorer
DraftKings Sportsbook posted touchdown odds for all of the Wild Card weekend games by Thursday evening. Here are a few I am interested in for this game.
DeAndre Hopkins +140
John Brown +200
Darren Fells +285
Use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds.
NFL Wild Card Round — Bills at Texans Player Props
NFL Wild Card Round — Deshaun Watson Under 249.5 Passing Yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
In sixteen games, only four quarterbacks exceeded this yardage number. Recently, the Bills were able to hold Lamar Jackson to a paltry 139 passing yards. The game will be indoors but the Bills will likely look to bleed the clock away by running the ball and keeping Watson in check on the passing side. With an average of 195.2 passing yards allowed per game, I am going to take the under on Watson’s total in a game that figures to be a lower-scoring affair. Under 249.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Wild Card Round — Devin Singletary Over 63.5 Rushing Yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
Singletary will be featured heavily in this game after sitting Week 17 in the meaningless contest against the Jets. T.J. Yeldon finally saw action in Week 17 and Frank Gore played in most of the first half. The Bills sent a message directly to fans and sports bettors that this backfield belongs to Devin Singletary. In Week 16, he played 98% of the snaps and received 100% of the running back touches in a very important game against the Patriots. Expect Singletary to touch the ball often on Saturday evening and exceed this yardage total. Over 63.5 Rushing Yards -112
NFL Wild Card Player Props at Monkey Night Fight
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Here are my favorite picks from Monkey Knife Fight for the opening AFC Wild Card game:
Cole Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions
Kenny Stills Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images