NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 2

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-09-19 01:01:22

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen, but we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections (for FanDuel and DraftKings subscribers) here!

Last Week in Review

5 Hits

We had a respectable week overall with our projections, with an excel CORREL function value of .9094. I don’t claim to have a full understanding of how well correlated our projections SHOULD be to actual, but obviously the closer to 1:1 they are…the better. We’ll keep pushing to have even better weeks than this moving forward.

5 Misses

I talked to a few people at the RotoGrinders party on Saturday, and I remember lamenting that I couldn’t reasonably pull the trigger on a full Dak Prescott downgrade. I thought lower than expected ownership was in play. Everybody spent so much time talking about how they would fade his high ownership that they brought a TON of people along for the ride. He was still chalky, but not to an impressive level. The loose pricing allowed players to pay up for whoever they wanted, and that resulted in lower than I expected ownership for T.Y. Hilton and Dez Bryant. Andrew Luck and Dak were both not as popular as expected, and fewer lineups using the WR1 as correlation also contributed. Sammy Watkins ownership was amazing to me. Once again, article after article and broadcast after broadcast kept talking about his virtues as a “low owned play.” Turns out he was the legitimate chalk and 8th highest overall player. The Browns D was just too cheap. Users crammed in all the skill players they could afford and chose to skimp at the faceless DST position.

Week 2 Analysis

Please keep in mind that all projections are current as of this writing. Please check the Projected Ownership tool for updates throughout the weekend.

Quarterback

Two at the Top

Eli Manning tops the charts on both sites in Week 2. The Giants have a 28.5 team total which helps drive his projection to the top. When you factor in heavy expert consensus, a fantastic defensive matchup, and very attractive WR1 correlation… my only concern is that I do not have him high enough. Then again, Dak Prescott was a “lock” for 20% last week and we all saw how that played out. We’re in a good place projecting him at 14-16% on both sites.

Cam Newton is at home with a 29 team total and coming off a loss. He’s a dynamic, high profile player who is generally adored by the public. He’s near the top of every projection model, and was one of the first QB’s drafted in every season long league. His defensive matchup is simply not imposing, and his price tag creates a high point per dollar based on projections. He’s a great bet to finish in the top 3 of ownership and once again my only fear is that we aren’t high enough. This projection has a chance to move up over the weekend so please stay tuned to the projection tool for updates.

Saturday Update: The DFS and fantasy football landscape continues to boom with buzz for Eli Manning and Odell Beckham. Check out the Projected Ownership tool for the latest, as their projections are on the rise.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

Carson Palmer seems to be the option that everyone would agree is playable, but nobody will actually play. Palmer and the Cardinals have a 28 point team total this Sunday, and the chatter is at a bare minimum on this play despite making an appearance towards the top of multiple projection models. Against the Tampa Bay defense that isn’t outstanding at any level, Palmer bring his bevy of weapons to go to work on Alterraun Verner, Brent Grimes, Chris Conte, Bradley McDougal, and Rookie Vernon Hargreaves III. I LOVE Michael Floyd, David Johnson, and the Cardinal passing attack to shred this team on the way to 300+ yards and 3-4 passing touchdowns. He should be less than 4% owned and I currently have him very low on Draftkings.

Running Back

Three Chalky Options

C.J. Anderson will be very popular this week. He gets a prime matchup, and will certainly feel the effects of cognitive bias on his ownership percentage as a result of recent performance. His price tag on Draftkings makes him particularly attractive on that site, and his heavy ownership in cash games will trickle into his GPP ownership. Draftkings also has the flex position, and one less game to spread ownership to that will cause him to be higher owned on that site.

All David Johnson did in Week 1 was solidify his status as a multi-dimensional workhorse capable of high-end fantasy production each and every week. His Vegas total, projections, high visibility to the public, and expert consensus bring him to the top of the projections in Week 2. He’s more expensive on FanDuel which is why he’s a bit lower on that site, but on Draftkings he’s an awesome play at just $7,600.

DeAngelo Williams is a beast. He had the biggest market share of touches in Week 1 amongst all RBs, and scored a boat load of fantasy points. Recent performance will be fresh in the minds of the public, especially the fanatical and extremely numerous fans in Steeler nation. The DFS crowd will be on him too, leveraging high projections, the relative safety of his floor, and his well demonstrated ceiling as a reason to target him in his Week 2 matchup against Cincinnati. He’ll potentially be the highest owned RB on FanDuel, where he’s just slightly cheaper than C.J. Anderson and substantially more affordable than David Johnson.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of Week

I am currently a card-carrying member of Team Zeke and I think he belongs closer in ownership to the top guys than where he will fall around the 10% range. Let’s discuss why. The Cowboy line is legit. It’s not some trendy opinion we tout for our health. They didn’t play to their potential last week as the Giant defensive line is very good. They took away what Dallas wanted to do in the run game, causing them to throw it more than they wanted to. Dallas was still able to sustain offense but with a rookie QB they ultimately couldn’t capitalize on their massive time of possession edge. That’s not going to happen this week in Washington. Dallas is going to get the ground game going and then we’ll really see the Jason Garrett offense in full effect. I expect Elliot to be featured in the game plan, and that should include a bit more work in the short passing game. He will run for over 100 yards. He will score. The only question is whether he will get the receptions and multi-TDs that push us to the top of the leaderboard. I’ll be investing a few bucks that says he will.

Wide Receiver

The Expensive Duo

The Saints do not have a cornerback that can cover Odell Beckham. I can’t imagine what kind of excuses people are making to fade him other than fading ownership and hoping for chaos. Otherwise, this is basically the most obvious WR play of the week. All kinds of metrics lineup for Beckham, but being one of the top three WRs taken in season long drafts is certainly going to help his standing with the public. He also plays in a massive media market and is a known commodity to the even the least educated players in the field. The DFS crowd is going to jump on the obvious mismatch and high projections. We’ll be loading up and his ownership should eclipse 22% on both sites. It’s actually not impossible that we see him become an extreme outlier a-la Antonio Brown last season. I’m very happy where he is now though – he’s the clear chalk.

Antonio Brown is so much better than everybody else, and players of all skill levels know it. I am obligated to explain that he plays on an extremely popular team, had the #1 overall ADP, finished last season as the best fantasy player on Earth, and catches passes from a Quarterback with elite football intelligence. Projections adore him, and Vegas is comfortable projecting a close game with a 25 point total for Pittsburgh. He’s another easy call as the chalk.

Saturday Update: The DFS and fantasy football landscape continues to boom with buzz for Eli Manning and Odell Beckham. Check out the Projected Ownership tool for the latest, as their projections are on the rise.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of Week

I debated this for a minute. I wanted to write up Emmanuel Sanders and talk about how he stands to crush the Indianapolis secondary if that game stays even remotely close. Instead, we’ll talk Michael Floyd. He’ll be catching passes from my QB ownership value, and I see a big game coming for Floyd. He’ll get coverage from Brent Grimes at times, and I expect him to win in contested situations when they match up. Those kinds of balls usually happen on deep balls and in the end zone. Floyd will see targets of both varieties this weekend, and a multi-TD output as his price tag can certainly take us where we want to go. That outcome is 100% within his range of outcomes. It’s a GPP play I am rubber stamping due to his projected low ownership.

Tight End

Two Good Spots

Delanie Walker is the expert favorite in Week 2. Combined with his projections, salary, and relatively public status as a top TE he should be the highest owned player on both Draftkings and Fanduel at TE. His matchup with the Lions is favorable, as they have a tendency to allow TD production. The Lions held true to that last week, allowing 3 TE scores. At a position that is generally scarce in terms of reliable options, Walker seems like a safe bet for production and ownership.

Greg Olsen should also be one of the highest owned TEs. The Panthers have a high team total and will be a popular option both by himself and paired with Cam Newton. The Rotogrinders consensus value rankings love him, as do the other experts I have examined throughout the week. His projections reach the top 5 everywhere I look, and the 49ers are a fast paced team that will surely provide the Panthers plenty of opportunity to possess the ball. Playing on last year’s NFC Super Bowl team, there is no doubt the public is aware of his skills. He’s extremely likely to land in the top 3 at TE.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of Week

Yeah. That does say Coby Fleener. Video evidence suggest that this play could go down in flames, but Fleener’s snap counts and matchup suggest something else. The Giant linebackers and safeties are slow. By contrast, the rest of the Giant defense matches up far better against their individual opponents. The WRs will see cornerbacks that are at worst serviceable. The running game will see a stout defensive front. The best place to attack the Giants is through their linebackers and safeties. They of course are the players typically responsible for covering the TE. I like Fleener to find the end zone this week, and substantially increase his target volume. At an ownership between 6 and 10%, he’s a great GPP play in my view.

Defense

The Top Two

Carolina will see a 49ers team that is coming across the country on a short week. Everybody loves them this week as a result. DFS experts like them. TV personalities like them. Mass media sports websites love them. Projections love them. They’re the clear cut top defense in week 2 and the ownership should demonstrate that.

Seattle is probably the second highest owned defensive unit against a Rams offense that was horrid in Week 1. Recency bias and notoriety will drive the publics usage, and strong projections will drive the more competitive crowd. Vegas will also help, as the Rams have an embarrassing 15.75 point team total as of this writing. The price on FanDuel could end up moving them out of the top 2 on that site, but they should still see double digit ownership.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of Week

The Raiders have playmakers at every level. Julio Jones is banged up. Matt Ryan has looked inaccurate at times in recent history. There are a number of “outs” I see in this game where the Raiders could take the lead, and force Atlanta to play from behind. In this scenario, the Raider defense stands a much better chance at generating sacks and turnovers than they had last week against Drew Brees. Ultimately, we’re fishing for a cheap DST TD but the chances of that are far from zero. I like the Raiders as a low owned GPP punt given their opponents inconsistent and potentially mistake filled offensive attack.