NFL Week 11 Daily Fantasy Recap

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2013-11-21 00:05:12

Note: Stats below do not include the Monday Night Football game.

What Worked

• Big Ben to Antonio Brown. In the first quarter alone, these two hooked up for two long TD’s, the first a 34-yard strike and the second a 47-yard catch and run. Before we were even an hour into the Sunday games, owners who rolled out this duo had to feel very good about their chances in Week 11. Brown finished the first half with five catches for 110 yards (including the two TD’s), but added just two catches for 37 yards in the second half. Big Ben kept on rolling after halftime, throwing for two more touchdowns, and he finished the day with 367 yards and 4 TD’s and was the top QB going into Monday night. Brown was Sunday’s second best receiver behind Megatron, his counterpart in this game. We know we can count on catches from Brown (he was leading the NFL in receptions coming into Sunday), but touchdowns had been hard to come by as he had only three in Weeks 1 through 10. Brown and Big Ben made up the top QB/WR combination of Week 11.

• Stand-in RB’s. The Tampa Bay back-up RB’s continue to make Doug Martin early season struggles look even worse. After Mike James had a few nice moments as Martin’s successor, he went down last week after gashing the Miami defense on the Bucs first drive. Now down to their 3rd and 4th options, it seemed like a big risk to rely on either Tampa Bay RB this week, but Bobby Rainey (who is now with his third different team of 2013) ran wild on the Atlanta defense. He saw 32 total touches compared to just 8 for Brian Leonard, and scored three TD’s on 167 total yards, all but four of which came on the ground. It should be interesting to see how Rainey follows up his success in Week 12. Rashad Jennings got the start against the Texans with Run DMC on the shelf, and made the best of it with 150 yards and a TD on the ground. Jennings looks like the superior back on the Raiders roster; McFadden only had one game over 73 yards rushing in his seven starts, while Jennings hasn’t had fewer than 88 yards rushing since taking over as the top back against the Eagles a few weeks ago. Even with an undrafted rookie at the helm, Jennings was still able to find room to run but it was a little surprising that he wasn’t more involved in the passing game (two catches for -2 yards). Speaking of backups that look better than the starter, Donald Brown put forth a much better game than Trent Richardson on Thursday night. T-Rich continues to look like a shell of himself, rushing for just 22 yards on eight carries while Brown finished with 88 yards on six more carries and added two red-zone touchdowns. Richardson had five catches to just one for Brown, but it wasn’t nearly enough to make up for his lack of success on the ground. There is no way you can feel good about playing T-Rich in the near future.

• Calvin Johnson. Like Antonio Brown, Megatron did most of his damage in the first half, but it was enough to make his owners happy. The first quarter belonged to the Steelers, but it was Calvin’s show in the second stanza. He got the Lions started with a 79-yard TD early in the quarter, and added a 19-yard strike a few minutes before halftime. Johnson had 163 of his 179 yards in the quarter, but unfortunately was shut out in the second half, which probably had a lot to do with the Lions loss. Megatron finished the day as the second highest scoring flex player and accounted for all of Matthew Stafford TD’s, which was still enough to make him the 4th best QB going into Monday night. Stafford could have also had a much bigger second half, but went just 3-15 after halftime.

• Running the ball at Soldier Field. It’s not too often that we see tornado warnings during NFL games, but this was the case Sunday in Chicago. The game was delayed during the first half and resumed almost two hours later, but it still wasn’t any easier for either offense to throw the ball. This led to Ray Rice and Matt Forte being the focal points of their offenses, which led to 20+ point days for both guys. Rice finally broke the 100-yard mark for the first time this year, and ended up with nearly 150 total yards on 28 total touches. Was his success dependent upon the weather and the terrible Chicago run-D? Maybe, because even on some of his better runs he still seemed to have some kind of a hitch in his step. However, Bernard Pierce only managed 18 yards on ten carries, so maybe Rice can catapult his success into the final few weeks. On the other side, Matt Forte touched the ball 23 times for 125 total yards and a TD as the main man for Chicago. His 14-yard TD catch in the fourth quarter gave the Bears the lead, but they needed overtime to put the Ravens away for good.

• The Arizona passing game. If you were wise enough to roll out Carson Palmer against a poor Jags defense (who had been playing a bit better lately), you reaped the benefits. Palmer threw for over 400 yards in what was a big win for the Cardinals, and his success was even more impressive considering Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 0.6 YPC on the ground. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd each had six catches and a TD, but Floyd racked up 123 more yards than Fitz and was the third-best receiver going into MNF. The play of the day for the Cardinals was a 91-yard touchdown from Palmer to Floyd mid-way through the third quarter, which all but secured the win for Arizona. Rob Housler also added six receptions for 70 yards, which was enough for him to hit value across the industry. The fact that Palmer didn’t turn the ball over in a game for the first time this year was just icing on the cake.

• Picking on the Falcons defense. I already touched on Rainey, but he wasn’t the only Buccaneer to have a big game. Mike Glennon to Vincent Jackson was nearly unstoppable, as the two hooked up 10 times (on 12 targets) for 165 yards and a short TD. Glennon was nearly flawless, completing 20 of 23 attempts for 231 yards and 2 TD’s, and could have had a bigger day if it wasn’t for the success of the run game. This defense was completely gashed by a RB who couldn’t make it on the Browns (who are still starting Willis McGahee), and I will keep targeting this defense next week when they take on the Saints. If Glennon can complete 87% of his passes, what will Brees do? I think it’s safe to say Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram are more accomplished RB’s then Bobby Rainey, so one (or more) of them should have a big game. Week 12 will be a rare week where it’s not a wise move to fade the Thursday players.

• LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch Shady was a popular play this week, and for good reason. Washington hasn’t been great against RB’s this year, and McCoy ran all over this team when they played in Week 1. McCoy made his day with two one-yard TD runs, but he racked up solid yardage as well, racking up over 70 yards on both the ground and through the air. An early 49-yard reception was his biggest play of the day, and it was encouraging to see McCoy put up a big game with Foles at the helm. The Eagles controlled this game early which allowed them to feature McCoy as the top dog on offense. The Seahawks also controlled much of their game with Minnesota, and Marshawn Lynch was provided with quite a few goal-line chances, and he was able to turn them into three short touchdowns. Two came on the ground, the first a 4-yard run and the second a 1-yard plunge. The third TD came on a short pass from Russell Wilson, which capped off a great game from Beastmode. He had just 63 total yards, but the touchdowns were enough to make him the 3rd best RB of Week 11.

What Disappointed Us

• Reggie Bush. Hold onto the ball Reggie! An early fumble put Bush in the doghouse, but Jim Schwartz would have you believe that the muddy track at Heinz Field was the reason Bush touched the ball just 14 times on Sunday. Pittsburgh has been a sieve against the run recently, allowing the 26th most rushing yards coming into Sunday. They’ve been allowing a bevy of rushing touchdowns as well, so things looked good for Bush. But following the fumble, he was almost non-existent. Joique Bell stole a short TD run, and saw just two fewer touches on the day. Bush finished with just 54 total yards and no touchdowns, a big letdown for anyone who paid top dollar to play him this week.

• The Injury Bug. Jordan Reed was one of the most popular tight end plays of the week, but burned his owners with just one catch for 12 yards. The Redskins passing game couldn’t get anything going in the first three quarters, and by the time RGIII had any success, Reed was in the locker room. Keenan Allen left during the second half against the Dolphins with a knee injury, and compiled just three catches for 45 yards at the time of his departure. That’s back-to-back disappointing games for Allen, and it won’t get any easier for him against the Chiefs next week. Emmanuel Sanders had just one catch for two yards against the Lions, due to an injured foot that forced him out of action before halftime. Darren Sproles didn’t miss significant time with his knee injury, but didn’t do much once he returned.

• The Arizona running game. With the Jags on tap, it seemed like a good week to roll with high-upside RB Andre Ellington, even if he wouldn’t touch the ball 20 times. That worked out terribly. Ellington had just ten total touches, and turned them into a meager 13 yards. He was stuffed at the line pretty much every time he carried the ball, and his teammate Rashard Mendenhall didn’t fare much better (13 carries for 14 yards). Mendenhall salvaged his day with a short TD run, but the 0.6 YPC doesn’t inspire much confidence in this group going forward. Ellington will remain a high-upside play due to his game breaking speed, but he’s far from a safe option.

• Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore. With San Francisco traveling to New Orleans, it looked like this was the week he’d have enough pass attempts to make him worth selecting. He threw it 31 times, but was only able to complete 17 of those throws and couldn’t top 130 yards. The 49ers as a team couldn’t muster up 200 total yards, so it was a bad day all around for the offense. Frank Gore only carried the ball 13 times and didn’t turn them into much, finishing with just 48 yards on the ground. Kaepernick never really seemed comfortable in this one, and looked about as bad as a QB can on the 49ers final drive which allowed the Saints to come back and win the game. San Francisco will face off with the Redskins next week, which is a great match-up for QB’s, but I can’t see myself rolling him out.

• Sunday night starting RB’s. Both Jamaal Charles and Knowshon Moreno have been a few of the most consistent producers at the running back position this year, but neither guy could get much going in the match-up between the two. Moreno owners had to be a little frustrated with the lack of goal-to-go touches for the lead horse in the Broncos backfield, but those honors instead went to Montee Ball in what is becoming an ongoing theme. I get that Denver wants to manage Moreno’s touches, as he will set a career high this year and they want him healthy for the playoffs. But touchdowns are such a vital part of fantasy success that it’s something we can’t ignore. Touchdowns were the key to Moreno’s success early in the season, but it’s been a boon to his production recently. Banging around near the goal-line can take a toll on running backs, so as long as Montee Ball isn’t putting it on the ground, this could continue to be the case in Denver. Jamaal Charles doesn’t have any competition for touches, and he’s been the most consistent back of 2013. The great thing about him is that regardless of the game situation, he’s part of the plan. If the Chiefs are up, they can pound Charles in the run game. When they trail, they use him often with dump-off passes. Negative six yards on two catches left him hopeless for a big game considering he failed to find the endzone on the ground, and finished with just 72 total yards. It goes without saying that those numbers aren’t nearly enough to make Charles a worthwhile selection.

• The lack of Danny Woodhead in the Chargers game-plan. Woodhead had just five carries for 21 yards and two catches for 16 yards in the Charges loss to Miami on Sunday. It was the first time since Week 1 that Woodhead had failed to catch at least four passes, and he was out-touched by Ryan Mathews by a wide margin (21 to 7). This is especially odd considering the Chargers never had a lead in this game, but they were also not too far behind where they were in constant pass-mode. It’s a tough break for Woodhead but he’s still an important part of this offense and should see more work in the coming weeks.

What Surprised Us

• The Raiders. Down to an undrafted rookie at quarterback, things weren’t looking good for Oakland as they traveled to Houston. Even considering the struggles of the Texans defense, Houston still seemed like a strong D/ST option. Instead, McGloin threw three TD’s and didn’t turn the ball over, leading the Raiders to victory over the now 2-8 Texans. Rashad Jennings had a lot to do with Oakland’s success, picking up 150 yards on the ground and allowing the Raiders to stay with a balanced attack. McGloin failed to top the 200 yard mark, but the three TD’s made him a strong selection for anyone who was willing to roll the dice on him. It would have been nice to see Denarius Moore go for more than 11 yards, but he did score a touchdown. Rod Streater seemed to be McGloin’s favorite weapon, catching six balls for 84 yards and a TD on eight targets.

• Bobby Rainey. When a guy comes out of nowhere to lead all players in fantasy points in a given week, it’s hard to not mention him a few times. There is no way I could leave him out of the surprises, because there wasn’t a soul on earth who saw a 167 total yards and 3 TD’s coming from a player who is with his third different team this year. Brian Leonard was the immediate beneficiary of the Mike James injury, but that probably had more to do with his familiarity with the playbook than it did his running prowess. After a week of practice, Rainey was the lead guy and ran away with the job. He should continue to see the lions share of the carries in Tampa Bay and is an interesting play on the fast track in Detroit next week.

• Garrett Graham. Even with the injury to Owen Daniels, Graham hadn’t been producing as he failed to crack 46 yards receiving in any of his starts coming into Week 11. That changed on Sunday, as Graham caught a season-high six passes for (another season-high) 136 yards and reeled in a 42-yard TD. He finished as the top TE of the week, and succeeded even with the Texans switching QB’s mid-way through the game. Graham was targeted a whopping 13 times so his day could have been even better, but no one who rolled with him this week is complaining.

• The top TE’s in general. If you scroll down to the leading scorers at the TE position, you might see a few guys you didn’t even consider playing. Delanie Walker (10 catches) and Charles Clay (six catches) were second and third respectively, and each finished with at least 90 yards and a TD. Mychal Rivera was the #5 guy in half-point PPR, hooking up with McGloin five times for 54 yards and a TD. Danny Noble turned one 62-yard TD into the biggest fantasy output of his career, and Anthony Fasano caught a late TD on SNF to make him a worthwhile TE punt.

• Jimmy Graham plays 74% of the Saints offensive snaps, but still has a sub-par game. After seeing just 40% of the snaps last week, Graham was more involved this week but it still didn’t translate into a strong fantasy effort. For the second straight week, Graham failed to find the endzone and turned his six catches into just 41 yards. It proves that no tight-end can produce every week, even when you are as popular of a red-zone target as Graham. The Saints travel to Atlanta next week, and I have to think that Graham will break out of his TD slump against a defense that couldn’t shut down the Buccaneers passing attack.

What To Take Away

• Tight End is a very volatile position. While we saw top-tier TE’s like Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, and Jordan Reed put up duds, the top five scorers all cost much less to roster than any of those three. We saw a similar situation in Week 9, and I’m sure we will see more surprises near the top of the TE leaderboard in the coming weeks. This of course goes for every position, but weeks like this make me think that punting TE on a sharp salary site like Draftstreet might be the way to go most weeks. Fanduel and Draftkings are a little slower to update salaries, so it’s been easy to select a guy like Reed or Julius Thomas at lower prices on those sites.

• Home field is a beautiful thing for a defense. In Week 11, the top six scoring defenses all played at home. Week 10 was a little different (5 of the top 10 played at home), but Weeks 8 and 9 also held true to this theory. In Week 9, six of the top eight defenses were at home, and seven of the top eight defenses in Week 8 played at home (the same goes for Week 5). It’s obviously nice to have your home crowd cheering you on, and it seems to give players a little extra motivation. This is by no means a flawless theory, but it’s something to consider when picking a defense.

• It might be too late to hope for a Matt Ryan resurgence. With one-win Tampa Bay on the schedule, this seemed like a prime time for Ryan to get things going in the right direction, but he needed garbage time to even crack the top-20 at the QB position this week. With Julio Jones done for the year and Roddy White still a bit banged up, it’s been tough for Ryan (and the Falcons in general) to overcome. Harry Douglas has filled Jones’ shoes quite well, but a struggling running game has further dampened Ryan’s chances for success. Throw in the fact that Tony Gonzalez isn’t completely healthy, and you have a mess on your hands. The improved Saints defense comes to Atlanta in Week 12, and even though Drew Brees should have no trouble putting up points, it’s tough to count on Ryan to follow them up.

• It’s going to be really tough to count on Eddie Lacy until Rodgers returns. And the rest of the Packers skill players, for that matter. Lacy carried the ball just 14 times for 27 yards, but did manage to convert a short-TD. He also wasn’t involved much in the passing game, catching just two passes for 21 yards. Lacy has still been somewhat of a popular play on sites that are slower to increase his salary, but he’s had trouble finding running room with Scott Tolzien at the helm. Jordy Nelson hasn’t fallen off too far, but Tolzien’s 0 TD/3 INT performance on Sunday kept any of the Packers WR’s from finishing near the top of the scoring leaders. Packer fans must be praying for Rodgers collarbone to heal sooner rather than later, as their playoff hopes continue to look worse without their franchise QB.

• Even with poor quarterbacks in Cleveland, Josh Gordon is a stud. What could this guy do with Peyton Manning or Drew Brees throwing him the ball? He’d look nice as the #2 option next to Calvin Johnson or as a compliment to DeSean Jackson in Philly… I know I’m not an NFL GM, but if I was a team who needed a receiver at the deadline, I’d have traded a first-rounder for this guy. He’s a game-breaker with size and speed, and he has at least 125 yards receiving in half of his starts this year. With a mix of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell, that is a remarkable achievement. He’s had a few duds (who wouldn’t with those QB’s throwing to them), but his highs have outweighed the lows this season.

This Week’s Top Performers: Quarterbacks

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Full Point PPR

Optimal Lineups

Optimal Lineup: FanDuel

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	$7,300	31.88
RB	LeSean McCoy	$8,700	29.00
RB	Bobby Rainey	$4,500	35.70
WR	Calvin Johnson	$10,200	32.90
WR	Antonio Brown	$6,900	29.40
WR	Michael Floyd	$5,200	28.30
TE	Garrett Graham	$4,700	21.10
K	Dan Carpenter	$5,000	13.00
DEF	Cincinnati	$5,600	25.00
	TOTALS	$58,100	246.28

Optimal Lineup: DraftStreet

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	$12,698	31.88
QB	Carson Palmer	$10,795	24.46
RB	Bobby Rainey	$5,560	35.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	$12,879	29.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	$15,754	32.90
WR	Antonio Brown	$11,934	29.40
TE	Michael Floyd	$6,160	28.30
FLEX	Vincent Jackson	$11,735	27.50
FLEX	Garrett Graham	$4,814	22.10
DEF	Cincinnati	$5,948	21.00
	TOTALS	$98,277	282.24

Optimal Lineup: DraftKings

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	$7,100	31.88
RB	Bobby Rainey	$3,000	36.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	$8,200	31.00
WR	Antonio Brown	$6,500	32.90
WR	Michael Floyd	$4,600	31.30
TE	Vincent Jackson	$7,100	32.50
FLEX	Garrett Graham	$3,500	25.60
K	Dan Carpenter	$3,000	13.00
DEF	Cincinnati	$4,600	25.00
	TOTALS	$47,600	259.88

Note: DraftKings Optimals does not include bonuses awarded in DK’s scoring system