NFL Week 7 Daily Fantasy Recap

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2013-10-22 01:40:23

What Worked

• Spending on big-time WR’s. Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant each saw a healthy number of targets on Sunday, which they turned into productive fantasy games. Mike Glennon had an almost unhealthy obsession with V-Jax, throwing in his direction an absurd 22 times, which led to a 10-138-2 line for Jackson. Bryant and Megatron each saw at least 15 targets, although Johnson’s day was much more useful as he found the endzone twice, while Bryant failed to score. Green only received eight targets but was still able to turn in six catches for 155 and a TD (an 82-yard TD in the 1st quarter accounted for most of his day).
• Falcons Value Plays. Both Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers were popular plays due to injuries to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson, and they didn’t disappoint yesterday. Douglas filled the shoes of Julio quite well, catching a long TD and finishing with seven catches for 149 yards and a score. As long as his price doesn’t creep up too high, Douglas should be a viable option again next week. As for Rodgers, he couldn’t find any room in the running game, gaining just 16 yards on eight carries. However, he turned his nine targets into eight receptions and was able to rack up two touchdowns in the process.
• The Packers passing game. Even against stout defenses (not to mention missing two of his top three targets), Aaron Rodgers always seems to get his. While a 260 yard passing day isn’t what we’ve come to expect from him, the 3 TD’s and zero INT’s were sure to make his owners happy. A popular value play this week, Jarrett Boykin turned in a 8-103-1 game while filling in for the injured Randall Cobb and James Jones. Jermichael Finley registered five catches for 72 yards and a TD before leaving with a scary injury, and both of these players no doubt benefited from Jordy Nelson having Joe Haden shadowing him for most of the day. Nelson still managed to score a touchdown, but otherwise only had five catches for 42 yards on six targets.
• Sunday Night Quarterbacks. If you managed to pair Peyton Manning with Eric Decker or even any of Peyton’s other major targets, you were probably pretty happy with the result. Manning has been so good this season that throwing for almost 400 yards and 3 TD’s just seems like an average night for him. Decker was the big winner as far as the Denver WR’s, coming down with eight catches for 150 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, both Demaryius and Julius Thomas caught TD’s, and Wes Welker reeled in seven catches for 96 yards. On the other side, Andrew Luck put his Monday Night performance behind him and registered 4 TD’s (one rushing), leading to him being the top quarterback of Week 7. However, if you paired him with any of his top weapons, it didn’t work out so well. Reggie Wayne caught five passes for 50 yards before tearing his ACL and meniscus, and T.Y. Hilton had just two catches for 27 yards despite being targeted 11 times.

• RGIII to Jordan Reed. If you played this combination in any GPP’s, you set yourself up beautifully going into the late afternoon games. Griffin brought back memories from last year by rushing for 84 yards on 11 carries, his highest yardage total of the season. Add that to his 298 yards through the air, including two touchdowns, and he had a very nice day at the office. Jordan Reed was the real GPP gold on Sunday, putting up 9-134-1 and considering his salary, was one of the days best values. He did suffer a hip pointer in the game, but at the time of this writing it looks like he will be good to go next week.
• Matt Forte. Forte had his biggest game of the season on Sunday, running for 91 yards and 3 TD’s and adding two catches for 18 yards. While the yardage total isn’t overwhelming, the touchdowns made his day. Last season, when the Bears got near the goal-line, Michael Bush would trot on to steal six points from Forte’s fantasy owners… but not this season. Forte scored a two yard rushing TD in the first quarter, followed by scores from 50 and 6 yards out in the second half. He was a popular play this weekend, and in this case it was warranted.
• Rob Gronkowski. He’s baaaacckkk. Anyone who was worried he would be on some sort of snap count was dead wrong; he saw 17 targets in his debut. Even though owners were probably happy with eight catches for 114 yards, his day could have been much bigger. He was tackled at the one yard line early in the game, and then Brady overthrew him on what could have been a game-winning score in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, it is nice to know that he will not be limited in any way going forward, and he remains a strong play from this point on as Brady should continue to regularly throw in his direction.

What Disappointed Us

• Nick Foles. I couldn’t help but to start with this guy, because good god was he awful. Maybe I’m a bit more frustrated because I played him in a ton of my lineups, or maybe it’s because I am an Eagles fan and he just happened to throw that performance up against Dallas… but it was absolutely terrible. There were a few reports before the game that he had some type of groin injury, and it sure looked like he was hurt during the game. He moved around in and outside of the pocket like a 90-year-old man, and regularly missed open receivers, including a few times in the red-zone. He finished the day with just 80 yards and no TD’s, leaving everyone who played him in a big hole going into the late games. Matt Barkley replaced him and somehow managed to look better even while throwing 3 INT’s in less than two quarters. Here’s to hoping Michael Vick returns in Week 8.

• In-game injuries. Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Reggie Wayne, Keenan Allen, Jay Cutler, Jermichael Finley, and Nick Foles all left their contests early, and there were several others. Foster’s injury was frustrating because it happened so early in the game, leading to virtually no production out of him. Doug Martin went from almost catching a TD pass to potentially being out for the season, not that the Bucs need any more bad luck. Andrew Luck big game makes Reggie Wayne injury even more frustrating, as he would have likely had a much better day had he been able to stay healthy. Jay Cutler had an exciting matchup against a bad Redskins pass defense, but he unfortunately had to leave the game with a groin injury and forced the Bears to turn to Josh McCown.
  

• Josh Gordon. Speaking of in-game injuries, Gordon was forced out of action for a short time after injuring his shoulder, but was able to return. Regardless, he had by far his worst game of the season, catching just two passes for 21 yards. After Green Bay had completely taken away Torrey Smith last week, there was some talk that they might show Gordon that same respect, but I thought that Jordan Cameron would force them into a different plan. This was not the case, and Gordon just couldn’t find many openings even though he was targeted near the endzone on a few occasions. Maybe the problem lies more with Brandon Weeden than it does with the Packers defense, but either way, Gordon was a huge disappointment yesterday.

• The Eagles/Cowboys game in general. Of course the game with the second-highest over/under of the weekend had a 3-0 score at halftime. Anyone hoping to take down a GPP with a DAL/PHI stack didn’t have any luck. The aforementioned Nick Foles was awful, LeSean McCoy turned in his worst game of the season, and DeSean Jackson failed to produce after his huge Week 6. Things were not as bad on Dallas’ end, but Romo and Witten did not come close to accounting for their salaries. A meager 20 points were scored in this game while many had predicted it would be at least somewhere in the 50’s.

• The Chiefs Defense. They have probably set their standards too high after a very impressive start to the season, but even after Foster left with an injury, they couldn’t muster a single turnover against a rookie QB until very late in the game. While they only allowed 16 points (pretty good in today’s NFL), those of us who paid for them as the most expensive defensive unit on the board this weekend did not get a worthwhile return on that investment.

• Keenan Allen and Justin Blackmon. I really hesitated to put them here, because three weeks ago their stat lines from Sunday would have seemed like productive games. Allen is disappointing for a few reasons; he was targeted twice in a row from inside the five-yard line, but didn’t come down with a TD (he did draw two flags though, but that doesn’t help us). He had three catches for 67 yards at halftime, so things looked good for him, but sadly that was the same stat line he finished with. He left the game with a minor injury but should be fine going forward. Justin Blackmon was on everyone’s radar after his last two games, but received a ton of attention from the SD secondary and had just 58 yards on six catches. Again, not a terrible game for either guy, but it just wasn’t exactly what we were hoping for.

What Surprised Us

• The Redskins/Bears scoring breakdown. This game certainly provided it’s fair share of fantasy goodness, but it could have been much bigger had it not been for a mix of injuries and vultured TD’s. Roy Helu came out of nowhere to score three rushing touchdowns on just 11 carries. Alfred Morris owners had to be frustrated by that, not to mention the rushing duties were more split up than they have been, even though Morris was running well. A few defensive touchdowns and the Jordan Reed breakout also prevented players like Pierre Garcon and Brandon Marshall from having a better day. If you had told me that almost 100 points would have been scored in this game, I would have paid any price for Marshall, Cutler, Garcon and Morris (Matt Forte and RGIII as well, but they actually had big games).
• The Jets over the Patriots. I won’t get into the ending of this game, as ugly as it was, but this was one surprising over the entire 60 minutes. To start, Stevan Ridley did not touch for the first 22 minutes of the game, giving way to Brandon Bolden who managed a 1-yard TD in Ridley’s stead. Ridley salvaged his day with a 17-yard TD run, but his 11 carries are alarming considering how well he ran last week, but hey, its New England; Running back drama is nothing new there. Tom Brady, despite his team putting up 27 points, did not manage to throw a touchdown in this one. He was also picked off once and threw for just 228 yards, and capped off a depressing day by missing a potential TD throw to Gronkowski that could have won the game. Gronk’s 17 targets were a surprise, but there is now no doubt that he is back and looks healthy now. Geno Smith put up a very useful fantasy stat line, as did Jeremy Kerley.
  Chris Ivory came out from hibernation to receive 34 carries, which he turned into 110 yards. Bilal Powell touched the ball just three times for six yards. Not exactly the breakdown in touches that most people expected out of the Jets backfield going into this weekend.
• The Colts score 39 points, yet Wayne and Hilton combine for no touchdowns. I touched on this earlier, but this box score is a strange one. Darrius Heyward-Bey had 77 total yards on eight touches, including a nice 11-yard TD catch in the first quarter. It’s nice to see him have a productive day as Indianapolis will need him to step up with Reggie Wayne being done for the year. Stanley Havili roped in a 20-yard TD throw from Luck, and Coby Fleener (not as surprising) caught the other TD pass. T.Y. Hilton had several chances to make things happen, but couldn’t connect with Luck on any big plays despite 11 targets. The big thing to take away from this game: Trent Richardson is bad. He is making the Browns look smarter every week as he once again flounders away his opportunity to produce in a high-octane offense. Richardson carried the ball 14 times and picked up 2.6 YPC, and was invisible in the passing game yet again. He also fumbled in a key spot down the stretch, which certainly won’t help his case to get more work. T-Rich should probably be avoided, at least until he shows some glimmer of life.
• Andy Dalton. I don’t think anyone can say they saw a 372-yard/3-TD game coming for Dalton. An 82-yard strike to A.J. Green to start the game obviously padded his totals, but he still threw for almost 300 yards after that. Marvin Jones came down with an incredible 12-yard TD catch right before halftime, and the rookie Tyler Eifert reeled in a 32-yarder to give Dalton his third TD pass of the day.
  The Detroit defense is not very good (28th against the pass coming in) and Ford Field definitely doesn’t slow anyone down, but this kind of production is not what we’re accustomed to with Dalton.
• Zac Stacy looks like the real deal. He’s not a RB1 and probably not a strong RB2 either, but Stacy has become a very appealing option if you want to save some salary to spend big on another position. The Panthers are legit defensively, coming in as the 4th best unit against the run. Stacy had just 53 yards on 17 carries (including a very nice 21-yard run), but also contributed 34 yards and a TD on four receptions. He has moved himself ahead of the pack in terms of the Ram’s RB committee (or what once was a committee), and should continue to see 20 touches a game for the foreseeable future.
• Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick finished as the tenth best QB of the week, but that’s not the surprising part. The 49ers finally decided to let Kaepernick get more involved in the running game, where he is deadly. 11 carries should not be a surprising total from Kaep; it should be the norm. He at last recorded his first rushing TD of the year, a play the 49ers ran out of the pistol formation, a 20-yard carry which showed the upside fantasy owners love about Kaepernick. He failed to throw a TD pass for the third time this season, and couldn’t top 200 yards passing, but the rushing totals are encouraging and hopefully will continue.

What To Take Away

• Denver provides unparalleled fantasy safety. This isn’t breaking news, but I am amazed at how consistent the Broncos top skill players have been from week-to-week. You can complain about getting burned by Demaryius Thomas for a week or two all you want, but if you’re playing in double up’s or H2H’s, there is no safer team to target than the Broncos. There isn’t another offense in the league that can compete with this unit on a weekly basis, as we saw when Dallas went into Philly (an awful defensive unit, which the Broncos torched for 52 points) and only mustered 17 points. Of course, Peyton Manning is going to cost you more than any other player in the league to roster, but his floor is so low that he is as close to guaranteed points as there is. Each of the three WR’s see a healthy number of targets on a weekly basis, but they will vary as far as who catches the TD’s each week (there are plenty to go around, though). Knowshon Moreno has emerged ahead of the other Denver RB’s, and he’s consistently involved in the passing game as well.
• Spending big at Wide Receiver is worth it. It’s funny to see just how much the NFL has turned into a pass-heavy league. While watching the DAL/PHI game, Troy Aikman kept going on about how Tony Romo had just broken the NFL record for most passing yards over his first 100 career starts. This is Tony Romo we are talking about, setting all-time NFL records. This record will surely be broken in the next few years (Matthew Stafford is well ahead of pace to pass Romo), but it highlights how different the NFL is today. I’m not breaking news to anyone, but if you paid for the likes of Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green, you weren’t left disappointed. Wide receivers are risky in that if a defense really chooses to take it’s opponents top weapon out of play (like New England does), than it’s possible that guy doesn’t touch the ball much that game. With high-priced running backs, you have the safety of guaranteed touches, but with most sites moving to PPR, they simply aren’t as valuable. Of the high-priced RB’s this week, only Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch were worth buying.
• Jacksonville’s defense is unspeakably bad. Every offense looks like the Broncos against this unit. Not that their offense is much better, but this team just can’t stop anyone. Philip Rivers completed 22 of 26 passes, and the San Diego running game (not a particularly scary group) looked unstoppable on Sunday. However the Chargers decided they wanted to score (except on throws to Kennan Allen), the Jags just let it happen, and didn’t generate a single turnover all day. This unit should be picked on weekly; Frank Gore and the 49ers should have just as much success next week.
• Don’t always listen to coaches when they say a player will be the “number one target.” Why would they want to be honest with the press? So they can let their game-plan be known to the rest of the world? For instance, this week it was reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter had said Tony Gonzalez would be the Falcons number one target this week, and that he would see an ample number of targets. Those who were hoping for that scenario were severely disappointed. Gonzalez had just two catches on four targets, while Harry Douglas ran wild on the Tampa Bay defense. This isn’t the first time coaches have lied to us (remember when the Bills said they would run CJ Spiller until he threw up?), nor will it be the last. Take what coaches say during the week with a grain of salt; sometimes it will work out like they report, sometimes it won’t.

Top Performers By Position: Week 7

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This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Full Point PPR

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