NHL Grind Down: Monday, March 13th - Page Two
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Colorado Avalanche at Arizona Coyotes
| Colorado Avalanche | Arizona Coyotes | ||||||||
 | Calvin Pickard |  | Mike Smith | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 19-45-3 | 24-35-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 1.92 | 3.29 | 13.50% | 78.00% | Team Stats | 2.37 | 3.22 | 15.30% | 77.80% |
Avalanche 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.2 CF% / 35.5 GF% / 44.9 xGF%
Coyotes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 44.6 CF% / 46.5 GF% / 43.3 xGF%
The age old dilemma: a stoppable force versus a moveable object. Colorado’s offense really couldn’t get much worse at scoring if they tried (and they have – you saw Blake Comeau pass on a breakaway, no?). They are due for some positive regression and when the matchups are right, well, that’s about their only chance at avoiding infamy. The Coyotes, another basement dweller (nothing against basements), grade out as the worst defense playing tonight. They struggle at 5v5 and they struggle on the penalty kill. As if in a Dr. Seuss novel, they won’t play defense here nor there – they won’t play defense anywhere. The rub is that the Avalanche can rarely rise to the occasion. Nathan MacKinnon remains an elite talent in this league, but when Rene Bourque is your winger in 2017 there are structural issues beyond the player. We saw the Coyotes struggle to slow down the Devils top line (!) in their last game, so there is hope. At the very least, MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog will get their shot attempts. Beyond that is anyone’s guess, with Matt Duchene last seen on a milk carton at the trade deadline and Mikko Rantanen working through rookie inconsistency. Tyson Barrie has stepped up on the blueline, and with Erik Johnson back from injury, he should be able to push his offensive game forward. Anyone playing Arizona will see an ownership bump, but Colorado’s year-long struggles should keep them on the low side.
Tonight feels like a night where a majority of DFSers will play the Coyotes as their “against the grain” pick but that may not be the best decision. While Arizona’s top line of Radim Vrbata, Christian Dvorak, and Max Domi are certainly viable options, we need to understand that: A) Arizona is one of the worst offenses in the league, and B) despite their overall struggles, Colorado’s problems aren’t necessarily defensive. In fact, the Avalanche have very respectable levels of 5v5 scoring chances allowed and high-danger shot attempts allowed. They received a boost when Erik Johnson came back into the lineup, and he’s a solid defender. The top line will most likely see time against MacKinnon’s line, which shouldn’t mean a tough night. The second line of Jordan Martinook, Brendan Perlini, and Tobias Rieder did some damage in their last game, but this is an extremely low floor trio, so take heed. Calvin Pickard has been a mostly respectable goalie over the past few weeks, so unless Jeremy Smith draws the start, there is still plenty of risk in the ‘Yotes. It’s worth noting that the Avalanche have been short handed the second most times this year and they don’t kill penalties well, so those Coyotes that see decent power play time have the best shot at production.
Avalanche Elite Plays:Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie
Avalanche Secondary Plays:Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen
Coyotes Elite Plays: None
Coyotes Secondary Plays:Radim Vrbata, Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski, Brendan Perlini
St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings
| St. Louis Blues | Los Angeles Kings | ||||||||
 | Jake Allen |  | Jonathan Quick | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 35-27-5 | 33-28-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.81 | 22.30% | 83.60% | Team Stats | 2.48 | 2.47 | 19.50% | 84.90% |
Blues 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.2 CF% / 55 GF% / 50.04 xGF%
Kings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.1 CF% / 46.2 GF% / 52.73 xGF%
Our final game of the night brings us an offense that has severely underperformed, to put it mildly, going up against one of the better defenses in the league. That is to say, this is not a favorable matchup for the Blues. I’ve rechecked the numbers and calculator noises yes, the Blues have the worst 5v5 CF/60 of all the teams playing tonight over their past 25 games. That includes the Avalanche and the Coyotes. So we have a very quiet offense outside of Vladimir Tarasenko going against the team with the second lowest 5v5 CA/60 of the teams going tonight. Paul Stastny should return from the flu tonight, but that arguably diminishes the quality of the top line as Alex Steen would leave Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz. Then again, that’s mostly a lateral move as Steen is having a down year. While Jonathan Quick hasn’t been overly sharp since his return from injury, the Kings don’t make it easy for opposing offenses to challenge their netminder.
Don’t go looking for a late night hammer from the Kings side, as their matchup is on the difficult end of the spectrum as well. While the Blues don’t generate much offense, they also don’t allow much either. Jake Allen is the wild card, but he’s been playing better over the past two weeks or so. Anze Kopitar, Jarome Iginla, and Marian Gaborik have dialed back the clock over the past two games, but they will need to bank on a rough game from Allen to come through here. As usual, the Kings’ ace line figures to be Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, and Tanner Pearson, but even for them this isn’t a great matchup. Carter’s bankable volume could pay off given Allen’s struggles, but his quality versus quantity matrix will skew towards quantity. All in all it sets up to be a low scoring game for both teams.
Blues Elite Plays: None
Blues Secondary Plays:Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrik Berglund, Jaden Schwartz
Kings Elite Plays: None
Kings Secondary Plays:Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin, Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson
Boston Bruins at Vancouver Canucks
| Boston Bruins | Vancouver Canucks | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Ryan Miller | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 36-26-6 | 28-31-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.56 | 20.20% | 86.00% | Team Stats | 2.25 | 2.84 | 13.80% | 78.50% |
Bruins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.4 CF% / 46.9 GF% / 55.8 xGF%
Canucks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.1 CF% / 46.5 GF% / 46.6 xGF%
Beginning their very own swing through Western Canada, the Bruins will look to continue to capitalize on interim coach Bruce Cassidy’s overwhelming success (with a wink and a nod to the law of averages). Boston will kick off their trip with their best matchup of the corridor, the lowly Canucks. Ryan Miller played admirably against Pittsburgh his last timeout, stopping 45 of 47 Penguin shots. He’ll likely see a similar workload tonight. All of the Bruins top six are in play and the chalkiest third liner in hockey, Frank Vatrano, remains a top notch price versus production play. Drew Stafford has fit in amazingly well with the Bruins, adding another dimension to an already dangerous second line with David Krejci and dreamy David Pastrnak. With Vancouver there is little to worry about in the way of matchup assignments – they’re all good. Bo Horvat and the second line is Vancouver’s best bet at slowing the opposition, and he’ll likely deploy against the Krejci line. Don’t be deterred, however, as the Bruins are an elite CF% team and it takes the strongest of matchups to best them. To be kind, the Canucks are not such a matchup.
For the Canucks, well, there are only about five weeks left in the season. The birds are beginning to emerge from their winter hideaways and winds are generally beginning to whisper the sweet nothings of a warming spring. No but really, this isn’t a matchup in which getting cute with the Canucks is likely a worthwhile endeavor. Boston dominates the puck possession metrics and they are elite on both ends of the ice; this isn’t a matter of being strong on offense or defense – it’s both, and it’s not close. Tuukka Rask has had issues with shots that are anything but low-danger chances, but working in his favor and against Vancouver is the fact the Bruins defense does not give out high probability shots. To make matters worse, the Canucks have the third lowest high-danger shot attempts-for rate of the teams playing tonight. This is a team that can surprise people, but the numbers are overwhelmingly against them. There are other, better under the radar plays to look at tonight.
Bruins Elite Plays:Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Torey Krug, Frank Vatrano
Bruins Secondary Plays:David Krejci, Drew Stafford, David Backes, Zdeno Chara, Colin Miller
Canucks Elite Plays: None
Canucks Secondary Plays: None