NHL Grind Down: Monday, March 13th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-14 01:57:45

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers

Columbus Blue Jackets					Philadelphia Flyers
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Steve Mason
			Record					Record
			43-18-6					31-28-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.16	2.33	21.60%	82.60%	Team Stats	2.49	2.91	20.50%	79.80%

Blue Jackets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.3 CF% / 55.1 GF% / 51.2 xGF%
Flyers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.4 CF% / 38 GF% / 46.7 xGF%

Coming off a home-and-home with the Sabres, the Blue Jackets will play their third game in four nights. The offense clearly liked playing Buffalo, but tonight’s matchup will be a little bit more difficult. We should see a high-event hockey game here, as the Jackets offense generates plenty of shot attempts at 5v5 while the Flyers allow a good deal of shot attempts – they have the third worst rate of CA/60 of the teams playing tonight. The Flyers have been pretty good at reducing the quality of shots allowed, though, as their high-danger shot attempt rate is low compared to their overall Corsi allowed. So, look for a volume driven game from the Blue Jackets offense. Of course, Columbus is one of the better teams at generating quality scoring chances, so something will have to give. Brandon Saad has been released from the hockey purgatory that is John Tortorella’s doghouse and is back on the top line, while recent value darling Oliver Bjorkstrand has joined former Flyers Sam Gagner and Scott Hartnell on the third line. Much like with the Rangers, the “fun” with rostering Columbus forwards is figuring out which line will be the one to succeed. The Flyers don’t use Claude Giroux as a shutdown center anymore at home (or they haven’t recently anyway) but who is considered the top line for Columbus? The Brandon Saad, Alex Wennberg, Nick Foligno trio is well-rounded but Cam Atkinson lurks. The good news is there is no true shutdown line or defensive pair for the Flyers, so we don’t really need to fret too much. Sean Couturier is a strong two-way center but he’s currently occupying a third line role so his risk is offset some. He’ll likely see some time against one of the top two lines. The Gagner, Hartnell, Bjorkstrand line gets interesting in tournaments, especially with Bjorkstrand’s recent ascension on the power play (at Gagner’s expense) though time on ice is low and unfavorable. Look for the Flyers to start Steve Mason, who has been playing well of late. He has a very poor 5v5 save percentage on high-danger shots, so if Columbus can generate them, they have a high success rate. Mason does well against low-danger shots, though, which appears to be known in Philly based on their system structure and results of late. Going back to Gagner and Hartnell, they are among the leaders on Columbus in high-danger shot attempts/60 at 5v5 (with Brandon Saad). Columbus has a high-end power play that should be able to exploit Philadelphia’s slightly below average penalty kill (80%).

Much of the above can be applied to Philadelphia’s matchup. The Blue Jackets are a little inverse defensively compared to the Flyers, though: they have done a better job limiting shot attempts allowed but still see plenty of high-danger chances get through. In fact, Columbus has the third highest high-danger Corsi-Allowed/60 rate at 5v5 of the 16 teams playing tonight. Sergei Bobrovsky has been cleaning up the mess quite well of late, however. (Side note, it feels like the Jackets are a safety school for players that left the Rangers and Flyers.) Bobrovsky finally posted a normal statline in his last start, allowing three goals on 32 shots versus the Sabres. That seems like a best case scenario for the Flyers, who have one of the lowest team xGF/60 at 5v5. Again we see Sean Couturier as a name that stands out as he leads the Flyers in HDCF/60 at 5v5. Also again, his line assignment leads something to be desired as Valtteri Filppula arrival has pushed Couturier to the third line. Columbus has done pretty well on the penalty kill this year (83.2%) so while Philadelphia has a dangerous power play, there isn’t a mismatch to take advantage of. This is an upside matchup for the Flyers, but in order to truly capitalize, they will need to be better at generating quality scoring chances. This is something they’ve struggled at. Their CF/60 is strong, but Sergei Bobrovsky has been outstanding against low-danger shot attempts.

Blue Jackets Elite Plays:Brandon Saad, Sam Gagner (GPP), Scott Hartnell (GPP)
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays:Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand

Flyers Elite Plays:Sean Couturier (GPP)
Flyers Secondary Plays:Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

Tampa Bay Lightning					New York Rangers
			Andrei Vasilevskiy					Magnus Hellberg
			Record					Record
			32-26-9					44-23-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.72	2.70	22.30%	80.60%	Team Stats	3.18	2.60	18.70%	81.00%

Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 54.4 CF% / 56.5 GF% / 51.4 xGF% (ytd)
Rangers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.5 CF% / 51.4 GF% / 50 xGF% (ytd)

When the Lightning last met the Rangers, the game was in Tampa Bay and the Lightning had a healthy stable of forwards (sans Steven Stamkos). Less than a week later, the rematch in New York could look pretty different. The biggest injury relates to Tyler Johnson, who is considered out as of this writing. That splits up the Triplets and pushes Brayden Point in to a first line center role. It’s not an ideal role for him but it does open up his door further as a value play due to the talent he’s surrounded by. With Point to the top line, the second line added Yanni Gourde with Jonathan Drouin and Alex Killorn. Look for the Rangers to deploy Derek Stepan against Nikita Kucherov. Stepan is a solid two-way center and winger Chris Kreider is a very strong driver of play. A mitigating factor here is that the Rangers will also likely have Ryan McDonagh and Marc Staal against the Nikita Kucherov line. McDonagh is strong but Staal is not, and the Rangers as a whole are prone to giving up shots in bunches. New York played in Detroit last night and with Henrik Lundqvist hurt, the Rangers will need to turn back to Antti Raanta for a second straight night (he wasn’t overly busy in Detroit) or roll with inexperienced Magnus Hellberg. Given that New York struggles to contain high-danger shot attempts at 5v5, questionable goaltending adds to Tampa Bay’s favorable outlook. This is especially true for the likes of Drouin and Killorn. If Raanta starts, things are a little less blurry as he’s been mostly solid this year. His 5v5 high-danger save rate is near the top of the pack. Stacking may be risky in certain formats here because each of the top two lines have weak spots, but it’s a viable GPP strategy given the quality of opponent in New York. Victor Hedman continues to beast on the blueline and this isn’t an unfavorable matchup for him by any means. New York’s so-so penalty kill opens the door for power play correlation points out of the Lightning.

The Rangers welcomed Rick Nash back over the weekend and the forward group is back to boasting three potent 5v5 scoring lines. The power play is also showing signs of life, including an impressive effort against a normally stout Carolina penalty kill a few nights ago. On paper tonight’s matchup is unfavorable as the Lightning have one of the lowest rates of Corsi-Allowed/60 at 5v5. Shot volume could be an issue, but given the injuries up front the Lightning may have trouble relieving pressure off the defense. Andrei Vasilevskiy comes in to this game in good form, having posted an all situation save percentage greater than .940 in four straight games. If we assume that Derek Stepan’s line matches up against Nikita Kucherov, there could be some nice looks available for Mika Zibanejad, Rick Nash, and Pavel Buchnevich and Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller, and Michael Grabner. While the goaltending situation isn’t ideal and Tampa Bay’s defense can be stingy, the Rangers have the arsenal to create mismatches. The Zibanejad line can be very dangerous and Buchnevich’s low cost of entry on most sites really open up roster construction. We’ve seen Andrei Vasilevskiy struggle and post some meltdown games this year, and the Lightning have allowed 30+ shots on goal in five straight games.

Lightning Elite Plays:Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin
Lightning Secondary Plays:Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde

Rangers Elite Plays:Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich
Rangers Secondary Plays:Chris Kreider, Rick Nash, Michael Grabner, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

Carolina Hurricanes					New York Islanders
			Cam Ward					Thomas Greiss
			Record					Record
			27-27-11					32-24-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.46	2.83	17.70%	84.00%	Team Stats	2.92	2.92	15.80%	80.20%

Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.8 CF% / 40.8 GF% / 50.6 xGF%
Islanders 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50 CF% / 49.1 GF% / 47.7 xGF%

Carolina continues to be a frustrating team to roster in DFS. As we see with the growing rift between their xGF% and their actual GF%, they should be scoring plenty more than they are. This will, in theory, correct, so they remain worthwhile plays in DFS – especially when the matchup and prices are right. Tonight’s matchup is one that can help Carolina’s goal scoring woes but it is by no means a slam-dunk. The Islanders return from a nine game road trip tonight. Carolina looks to have reunited Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, and Teuvo Teravainen. When playing together, this line can be quite dynamic. Each player, especially Staal, has been strong generating shots, quality scoring chances, and/or driving play. The Islanders, to their credit, have done a better job recently limiting high-danger shot attempts against, but this isn’t a shy-away matchup. At the very least, Carolina should pepper Thomas Greiss with shots. A little bit of puck luck turning back to their favor could make this a nice night, but that can’t be assumed. When these two teams met up in Brooklyn in early February, this variation of the Staal line saw time against both the John Tavares and Brock Nelson lines. Nelson’s line is the more favorable matchup as there will be plenty of shots allowed there, especially if Dennis Seidenberg and Calvin de Haan are the defensive pair du jour. The Islanders could choose to put the Tavares line out against Jeff Skinner this matchup has solid probability tonight.

New York will see a very favorable matchup tonight. Carolina’s goaltending is a mess and the defense has been getting pushed around. Look for John Tavares, Anders Lee, and Josh Bailey to get plenty of looks and, as usual, they are a fantastic line stack. This trio has been lethal in generating high-danger shot attempts at 5v5 and the Hurricanes give up plenty. New York’s second and third lines are far less potent, but in a favorable matchup, there are some possibilities here. Nikolay Kulemin is up the second line with Brock Nelson and Josh Ho-Sang while Andrew Ladd joins Ryan Strome on the third line. The second line has some upside while there should be enough options on tonight’s slate to avoid having to roster Andrew Ladd.

Hurricanes Elite Plays:Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho
Hurricanes Secondary Plays:Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen

Islanders Elite Plays:John Tavares, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey
Islanders Secondary Plays:Brock Nelson, Josh Ho-Sang, Nikolay Kulemin, Andrew Ladd

Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators

Winnipeg Jets					Nashville Predators
			Connor Hellebuyck					Pekka Rinne
			Record					Record
			30-33-6					33-24-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.93	3.16	17.00%	76.60%	Team Stats	2.91	2.76	20.40%	80.20%

Jets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.7 CF% / 50.6 GF% / 49.7 xGF%
Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.5 CF% / 48.9 GF% / 52.3 xGF%

The Jets will fly in to Nashville to take on a stout Predator defense. Winnipeg’s top six is playing well at the moment and has some serious firepower, but this is an unfavorable matchup. Pekka Rinne being in goal is the only real bright spot tonight, but Nashville’s defense is elite. They are very strong at limiting high-danger shot attempts and scoring chances at 5v5, and shot volume will be an issue for the Jets. With a deep defensive group, the Predators can counter both top Winnipeg lines. These two teams have met twice this year but both games were in November, so it’s too long ago to really draw conclusions from. Roman Josi will likely draw out against the Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers line so the second line may be the way to go for the Jets. Nashville is relatively consistent in putting Ryan Johansen and the top line out against opposing top lines as well, and Johansen has done a strong job limiting high-danger shots against. This is a low floor matchup that will only tap into its low ceiling if Pekka Rinne does his best Pekka Rinne impression.

Nashville is catching Winnipeg at a good time as the Jets have seen some defensive deterioration of late. The 5v5 CA/60 number is inching up for the Jets while the scoring chances and high-danger shots allowed trend in a way that favors the Preds here. While the Predators don’t have elite 5v5 numbers, their high-danger shot attempts-for are at a respectable level. Given the Jets’ issues there and the fact that Connor Hellebuyck has a poor save percentage on such shots, this is a nice matchup for Nashville. Assuming Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson see a good deal of action against Blake Wheeler and his line, the outlook is diminished some but it’s still a favorable setup overall. Take a look at Calle Jarnkrok, James Neal, and Colin Wilson on the second scoring line, however, in tournaments. Neal joins the top line on the power play, and Winnipeg’s lack of discipline (most time short-handed in the league) and weak penalty kill (76.9%) are well documented at this point. Johansen, Forsberg, and Arvidsson staying together on the power play is a big boost to their floor.

Jets Elite Plays: None
Jets Secondary Plays:Patrik Laine, Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba

Predators Elite Plays:Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi, James Neal
Predators Secondary Plays:Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis

Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames

Pittsburgh Penguins					Calgary Flames
			Matt Murray					Brian Elliott
			Record					Record
			43-16-8					38-26-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.48	2.75	22.60%	80.50%	Team Stats	2.71	2.65	20.00%	80.80%

Penguins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.9 CF% / 61.5 GF% / 52.9 xGF%
Flames 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.2 CF% / 56.4 GF% / 49.8 xGF%

The Penguins will play their third game in four nights as they wrap up their swing through Western Canada, which is lovely this time of year. The depth of the top six alone makes Pittsburgh an interesting case study. The Flames typically deploy Mark Giordano on defense and the Mikael Backlund line against opposing top lines. But who do they focus on here? Obviously Sidney Crosby is Sidney Crosby, but Evgeni Malkin has been doing work of late and is now joined by Phil Kessel on the second line. For most teams this is usually a shy-away matchup. However, Sidney Crosby is, again, Sidney Crosby (didn’t you hear?) and he and his line did the heavy lifting in Vancouver. I think it’s fair to assume a Crosby vs Giordano/Backlund matchup, which makes all parties sketchy tonight. Add in Brian Elliott’s recent gamelog and paying up for Crosby becomes risky and his mid-tiered wingers Jake Guentzel and Conor Sheary lose some of that value appeal. Malkin and Kessel’s 5v5 matchup is mostly neutral under this assumption, but again, Elliott is in the zone right now and there are travel concerns with the Penguins. The Flames have become pretty adept at stifling opposing offenses, especially in the way of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. While Pittsburgh has one of the most potent offenses in the league, there’s little room for error given their elevated prices.

This will be a real test for the Flames. They get a boost being on home ice and facing a Penguins club that is under less than ideal circumstances, but Pittsburgh a top notch team that can overcome these kinds of concerns. Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, and Michael Frolik have been among the league’s elite in driving play, but they will likely matchup against Sidney Crosby tonight. This severely limits their appeal because Sidney Crosby can dominate, to put it simply. This has the feel of a nice setup for Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan (plus Michael Ferland). Gaudreau has historically had nice home/road splits (to the tune of 1.03 home versus .72 away in his career) but that hasn’t been the case this year. Pittsburgh’s scoring chances and high-danger shots allowed at 5v5 are ripe for the picking, so Gaudreau and Monahan are squarely in play. They may go a bit under the radar, especially with Matt Murray coming off a shutout. Murray has been good this year, to be sure, but the Penguins are a much better home team and the defense remains a piecemeal injury squad. Including his shutout, Murray’s allowed 12 goals over his past five games. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is pedestrian at 80.4% efficiency, so low floor T.J. Brodie becomes an interesting stack play with Monahan and Gaudreau.

Penguins Elite Plays:Evgeni Malkin
Penguins Secondary Plays:Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, Conor Sheary, Nick Bonino, Justin Schultz

Flames Elite Plays:Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau
Flames Secondary Plays:Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie (GPP)

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