NHL Grind Down: Thursday, April 5th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-05 22:11:42 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets

Pittsburgh Penguins					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Matt Murray					Sergei Bobrovsky
			Record					Record
								45-29-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.26	3.05			Team Stats	2.88	2.71	17.04	77.18

Penguins Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 61.21 CF/60 (7) | 55.99 CA/60 (24) | 2.55 xGF/60 (4) | 2.32 xGA/60 (13)

We have a potential playoff preview on tap tonight between these Metro Division foes. There is some bad blood between these two teams. The Penguins have clinched a playoff spot while the Jackets are still duking out seeding with the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers. For all intents and purposes the Jackets will be in the playoffs.

There’s not a whole lot left to say about the Pittsburgh offense that hasn’t been said before. They are a behemoth. A consistent juggernaut. They have had a couple of rare quiet games lately, but there’s not a whole lot of reason to be concerned. In the last month they have the second best per-hour rate of scoring chances and the best rate high-danger shot attempts created at 5v5. They have finishing ability to match the infrastructure of the system, too.

Columbus enters this game in fine form of their own. Though they shockingly struggled against the Detroit Red Wings in their last game, Columbus’s defense has performed very well over the past few weeks. They are keeping shot attempts and scoring chances limited while controlling play with a 53.57% CF% at 5v5, fifth best in the league in the last month.

We know the usual cast of characters here. The most complete line consists of Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist, and Carl Hagelin. This is the only line that has power play correlation with Hornqvist and Malkin working on the top unit. Sidney Crosby has been white hot and scoring baseball inspired goals left and right. No style points in DFS though. He’s working with Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, so while his linemates aren’t Hornqvist or Phil Kessel, he’s not working with scrubs either. Kessel, meanwhile, is working on a island on the third line with Derick Brassard out. Neither Riley Sheahan nor Conor Sheary have done much this year. Kessel has been swapping spots in-game with Hornqvist of late.

With John Tortorella unlikely to hard match his lines, each group should see some time against the Columbus top line. It’s not a slam dunk matchup, but we know we can rely on Pittsburgh and these two teams generally turn it up a notch when they meet.

Penguins Special Teams Outlook
The Penguins have one of the top power plays in the league. From a DFS standpoint it’s kind of frustrating because only Malkin and Hornqvist/Kessel skate together at 5v5. Also, Justin Schultz and Kris Letang split time. It makes stacking players with power play correlation tricky. In any event the main obstacle for Pittsburgh tonight is the fact the Blue Jackets don’t go shorthanded often.

Penguins Goaltending Outlook
Matt Murray hasn’t been playing particularly sharp since coming back from injury, and there’s not a whole lot to like about him tonight. The win bonus is almost always in play thanks to Pittsburgh’s offense, but Murray’s play could certainly be better. It probably would be if Pittsburgh could tighten up on the HDCA/60 at 5v5, but Murray should still be better. Columbus is in good form at the moment and they have a dangerous offense, so Murray isn’t a high level play tonight.

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook