Raybon's Rollout: Week 6
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
RB Le’Veon Bell + WR Antonio Brown
With the value available this week, there’s a lot of creative ways you can build lineups. One pairing will go overlooked because of an (incorrectly) perceived negative correlation between running back and wide receiver is the Bell-Brown stack. Kansas City ranks 24th in run defense DVOA, 14th in pass defense DVOA, and 22nd in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers. Bell has played 93% of the snaps and handled 29.0 touches per game since Week 2, both tops in the league.
Brown, meanwhile, has been the most targeted wide receiver in the league, with an average of 12.8 per game. Because Brown was quiet in Bell’s best game (Week 3 at Baltimore) while Bell was quiet or semi-quiet in Brown’s best games (Week 1 at Cleveland, Week 3 at Chicago, Week 5 vs. Jacksonville), the perception will likely be that both of these guys can’t get humming at the same time—despite them being the most highly used players in the league at their respective positions. I already mentioned the Chiefs’ poor ranking in run defense that should help Bell, who’s a squeaky wheel this week, but it doesn’t hurt this stack that Brown will run many of his routes against cornerback Terrance Mitchell, whose 414 yards allowed in coverage are 60 more than any other player in the league, per Pro Football Focus.
QB Philip Rivers + WR Keenan Allen + WR Michael Crabtree
The more targets a receiver gets from his quarterback, the more naturally correlated the two will be. To that end, Allen’s 10.4 targets per game rank fourth in the league, and he’s been the most consistently targeted receiver in the league with a coefficient of variation of just 11%. Somewhat quietly, Allen is ranked fourth in the league in receiving yards (401), tied for fifth in red zone targets (7), and tied for fifth in targets inside the 10-yard line (4). Aside from a four-pick disaster in Week 3 against the Chiefs, Rivers has been solid as well, turning in two games of 330 or more passing yards and two others of three TDs. Against a Raiders defense that has sunken to 30th in pass defense DVOA and ranks 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, Rivers and Allen have one of the most appetizing matchups on the slate.
Leveraging the correlation of opposing passing games with Crabtree is a high-leverage move on two fronts. For one, the masses will likely be off Crabtree because the Raiders will be perceived to have a muted passing attack with either E.J. Manuel or a back-broken Derek Carr, but the bottom line is that if Rivers, Allen, and company put up points, the Raiders will be forced to throw. Then there’s the fact that the team’s No. 2 wideout, Amari Cooper, has seen his salary drop to record-low levels after an abysmal stretch of 23 yards on 15 targets over his past three games—and will thus attract “contrarian” ownership. But it’s Crabtree who has been Oakland’s most heavily targeted wideout for each of the past two seasons, and he quietly has 6 catches and 80 yards or more in three of four games this season, in addition to 4 TDs. Crabtree reminds me a lot of Davante Adams – there’s a sexier receiver play on his own team, but he’s a solid all-around player with a knack for getting into the end zone, and at the end of the day provides strong production at a modest price and modest ownership in DFS more often than not.
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Kareem Hunt: 67% on FanDuel, 63% on DraftKings
(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)
With 609 rushing yards through five games, Hunt has opened up a silly 143-yard lead on the next closest rusher. Now he gets a matchup at home with the Steelers, who have allowed over 215 yards to running backs in two of their last three games, and whose deficiencies in run defense line up perfectly with Kansas City’s strengths. While the Steelers defense ranks a solid eighth in adjusted line yards (3.68), it ranks 27th at stopping runs in power situations (third/fourth and short), 26th in stopping runners at the second level (5-10 yards downfield), and 32nd at stopping runners in the open field (11+ yards downfield), per Football Outsiders.
The Chiefs rank first in the league in all three of those categories on offense — in addition to a fifth-place ranking in adjusted line yards (4.50). Hunt’s floor so far this season has been 116 scrimmage yards, and though he cedes some of the third-down work to Charcandrick West, he still averages 22.6 touches per game, including 3.2 receptions.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Gregg Williams’ tendency to play his safeties deep
One of the most notable things about the Browns defense this season is how deep they play their safeties—usually 25 yards off the line of scrimmage. To put it into perspective, Cleveland.com thought it noteworthy enough to publish a whole article about how safety Jabrill Peppers played in the box more than usual last week, and that equated to just six snaps – including plays wiped out by penalty. While this has accomplished the intended effect of curtailing enemy deep throws—the Browns have faced only 14 passes that traveled at least 16 yards downfield, fewest in the league—it has left things open underneath, particularly in areas of the field where tight ends operate. So far this season, attacking the Browns defense with the opposing tight end in DFS has paid dividends at an 80% clip: Jesse James went 6-41-2 in Week 1, Ben Watson 8-91 in Week 2, Tyler Kroft 6-68-2 in Week 4, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins 6-29-1 in Week 5, with only Jack Doyle disappointing with a 2-16 line in Week 3. If it wasn’t obvious, the Browns are second-to-last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and dead last when adjusted for strength of schedule.
Ryan Griffin has played on 88% of the offensive snaps since returning from a concussion in Week 3 and turned in a productive fantasy line just three games ago with a 5-61-1 line against New England. Griffin also had two 8-catch games last season and should be in for his most productive afternoon to date this week.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Stefon Diggs’ groin injury and Green Bay’s banged-up secondary
As Evan Silva notes, Diggs’ production suffered after an early-season groin issue last season, as he exceeded 60 yards only three times from Week 3 on. While Kyle Rudolph ended up being the main beneficiary of Diggs playing at less than 100% last week, forward-thinkers would be wise to look at Thielen against the Packers. Thielen has been quietly consistent this season, hauling in at least 5 receptions in every game. That’s likely to continue against a Packers defense that has been targeted by wide receivers 64% of the time, tied for second-most in the NFL.
The Packers simply don’t have enough at cornerback right now—the only cornerback Pro Football Focus rates above 85th overall is Morgan Burnett (ninth), a safety playing slot corner who is nursing a hamstring injury and won’t be 100% even if he does play. Green Bay will likely also be without their most promising cornerback, rookie second-rounder Kevin King, who is yet to clear the concussion protocol. I wouldn’t worry about Case Keenum if he has to start; Keenum has completed 64.5% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempts with 4 TDs and no picks in place of Bradford this season.