Raybon's Rollout: Week 8
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Andy Dalton + RB Joe Mixon + WR A.J. Green + Bengals DST
For as bad as the Buccaneers and Patriots defenses have been at times, the Colts allowing 518 total yards of offense to a Blake Bortles-led, Leonard Fournette-less Jaguars offense might be the worst defensive performance we’ve seen yet this season. The Colts rank an abysmal 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to offenses as a whole, and aren’t ranked above 25th against any position—including kicking and defense. This is the definition of a smash spot.
If you’re a RotoGrinders Premium member, you know from JM Tohline’s excellent weekly column that the Colts have been getting lit up against the pass despite cornerback Rashaan Melvin giving them quality snaps. Well, Melvin is out this week with a concussion. In fact, I could have just as easily put this write-up in the “injury situation to exploit” section, because the Colts also lost rookie safety Malik Hooker to a torn ACL. For those counting at home, that’s the two players in the Colts secondary graded highest by Pro Football Focus that will not be on the field this Sunday for a pass defense that was already one of the worst in the league. Dalton has had one other matchup of similar softness this season, and he crushed it with 286 yards and four touchdowns in Cleveland. The only issue here is it’s tough to figure out who Dalton will throw to—except it’s not. A.J. Green owns a 50 percent share of his team’s air yards since Bill Lazor took over as the offensive coordinator, most in the NFL, per AirYards.com.
This stack is essentially two stacks combined into one: a Dalton-Green stack and a Mixon-Bengals DST stack. If Dalton-to-Green goes as planned, Mixon shouldn’t have any complaints about his workload this week. In the three games prior to last week’s 29–14 defeat in Pittsburgh, Mixon averaged 19.0 touches per game, which a lot to do with the Bengals being in positive game script in all three of those games. And if the Bengals are able to have success offensively, it’s going to force the Colts offense to keep up, which is sure to lead to mistakes with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. The Colts are double-digit underdogs and are ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs, while Brissett has taken a league-leading 25 sacks, fumbled five times, and has as many interceptions as touchdown passes (three).
RB Devonta Freeman + WR Mohamed Sanu
On paper at least, Freeman’s down fantasy games the last two weeks can be explained away: two weeks ago, he went up against a Miami defense ranked third in run defense DVOA, which caused the team to go away from the run, and last week the Falcons were in negative game script in a 23–7 loss up at Foxboro. The Jets defense has proven they aren’t the absolute pushover many expected coming into the season, but Freeman should find easier sledding against them than he has in the past two weeks, as they’re ranked 22nd in run defense DVOA and 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Jets also rank 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 28th versus offenses as a whole, which is where the Sanu play comes in. With positive recency bias surrounding Julio Jones, Sanu may go overlooked, but just as Freeman leads the team in red zone carries with 15, Sanu leads them in red zone targets with six—despite missing one game and a good chunk of another. Sanu is second on the team with a solid 20 percent target share, but that figure jumps to 25 percent if you remove the game Sanu missed and the one he left early due to injury. The Jets, meanwhile, are lacking for depth at nickel cornerback, which was already a weak link for them and will benefit Sanu since he lines up inside 62 percent of the time. Starting slot cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion) has been ruled out, backup Xavier Coleman (shoulder) is on injured reserve, and potential fill-in Daryl Roberts sounds like he has no idea how to play in the slot, rattling off confidence-inspiring quotes this week such as “I don’t really know about inside much” and “I’m not much of an inside corner. I play outside.”
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Le’Veon Bell: 62% on FanDuel; LeSean McCoy 56% on DraftKings
(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)
Since Week 2, Le’Veon Bell averages 31.7 touches per game, which is 6.8 more touches per game than any other back in the league over that span. Even as the most expensive player on the FanDuel main slate, Bell’s volume still makes him the safest play on the board against a Lions defense that is ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs and will be without interior run-stuffer Haloti Ngata (biceps).
With no Bell on the DraftKings main slate, McCoy takes the honors. Much of McCoy’s uneven performance to-date can be blamed on a tough schedule, as he’s already faced three defense ranked in the top six in run defense DVOA: the Panthers, Broncos, and Bengals. The Raiders rank 20th, and McCoy should get ample opportunity to produce against them; his 23.7 touches per game rank fifth in the league and he’s handled fewer than 20 touches in a game just once.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Jay Gruden increasing Josh Doctson’s snap rate
Not to be outdone by the man who got more money to replace him in Cleveland, Terrelle Pryor has been doing his best Kenny Britt impersonation in Washington, failing to top three catches since Week 1 with numerous drops along the way. Pryor played 82 percent of the snaps from Weeks 1–6 while Doctson played 26 percent, but last week, Jay Gruden seemingly had enough, elevating Doctson to an 84 percent player and cutting Pryor’s snaps down to 47 percent, afterwards saying the team will go with the hot hand — essentially a gentle way of saying “don’t blame me for starting the better receiver.” As the new starting X receiver, Doctson’s salary may be the lowest it will be all season and beyond against a Cowboys pass defense ranked 20th in DVOA and 24th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to number-one receivers. Docton’s elevated snap rate and the good matchup are two big reasons why he appears in the LineupHQ player pools of both STLCards and JMToWin this week (available to Premium members).
Injury Situation to Exploit
Brent Grimes’ shoulder injury and Robert McClain’s concussion
Vernon Hargreaves has been bad this season, being targeted 6.8 times per game and allowing a 116.3 passer rating and 404 yards in coverage, which is fifth-most in the league despite the fact he’s already had a bye, per Pro Football Focus. Defensive boss Mike Smith seemingly found a fix over the last two weeks, benching him for McClain in base sets and inserting him as the slot corner instead, where he had success last week. This week, however, Grimes and McClain have been ruled out, forcing Hargreaves back into a prominent alone alongside a cast of replacement-level players including sometimes-safeties Justin Evans and Josh Robinson, and undrafted free agents Javien Elliott and Deji Olatoye. Only Robinson has a PFF coverage grade north of 40 (a still-bad 62.1).
Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin should give these corners fits, not only because of their lack of skill, but because of their lack of size. Both Benjamin and Funchess stand 6-foot-5 and weigh over 230 pounds, but no Bucs defensive back stands higher than 6-foot-2 or weighs more than 205 pounds. To make matters worse, Tampa Bay’s pass rush has been nonexistent this season, with a league-low seven sacks and 3.2 percent adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. The Bucs rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.