Risers and Fallers: Volume 13
I’m excited to be back for another week of Risers & Fallers! Each week, I’ll break down a handful of players using advanced metrics, insights from my scouting background, and my DFS projection system THE BAT (available in the RotoGrinders Marketplace), which consistently beat Vegas lines last year.
I’ll examine guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on. If you guys have any suggestions for who you’d like to see in future articles, feel free to let me know.
Rising… Very Legitimately
Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Hoskins has been the talk of baseball, and so I couldn’t get away with writing an article titled “Risers and Fallers” without addressing him. He recently became the quickest player in MLB history to hit nine home runs… and then ten… and then eleven. So is he for real?
Hoskins wasn’t considered an elite prospect coming into the year and doesn’t have the pedigree of fellow 2017 breakout stars like Aaron Judge or Cody Bellinger. He was a fifth-round draft pick in 2014 and didn’t crack the Phillies preseason top-5 prospect list for Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, or MLB.com. (Baseball Prospectus didn’t even have him top 10.) Despite a lack of love from scouts, all Hoskins has done in the minors is rake. When you account for what he’s done and the context he’s done it in and then translate that performance to a major league context, THE BAT was in love with Hoskins well before he rounded the bases in the majors for the first time. Prior to his call-up, THE BAT considered Hoskins the best hitter in the minor leagues, and it wasn’t even close. A week before his call-up, I discussed Hoskins as the next big thing on the FantasyPros Baseball Podcast with Bobby Sylvester, and the day of his call-up, I declared him a top-75 hitter in baseball on GrindersLive. Fast-forward eleven home runs, and THE BAT now views Hoskins as the 32nd best hitter in baseball, sandwiched between Marcell Ozuna and Aaron Judge.
So does that mean it’s all sunshine and rainbows for Hoskins? Well, probably not. One of my good industry friends Paul Sporer caught some hate on Twitter for suggesting that Hoskins may not be as good as he’s hitting right now (a downright shocking take that a prospect off to a scorching start won’t actually keep it up, I know. The scandal of it!). While I (and THE BAT) think Hoskins’s case may be a little different than most (he already projects better than Bellinger and Judge in a neutral context, and better than Paul’s comp of Thames did at his peak), it’s completely reasonable in general to hold some skepticism towards this kind of performance.
For one thing, scouts have never graded Hoskins with the kind of Judge-like raw power you might expect given his home run pace, merely calling it above average-to-good. 60-grade power, not true plus-plus 70- or 80-grade stuff. And if you look at his HitTracker home run chart, you can see that this is the case. He’s yet to hit a single ball more than 415 feet. Aaron Judge, by comparison, has hit 17 of his 37 home runs at least 415 feet, several over 450, and one nearly 500. And while Judge hits his home runs to all fields, Hoskins has pulled all but one of his major league dingers.
This isn’t to say that Hoskins isn’t a very good power hitter, just that he doesn’t have the raw tools of an uber-prospect like Judge. What he does have working for him that a guy like Judge doesn’t is elite plate discipline. It’s rare that somebody who hits as many home runs as Hoskins strikes out at a below-average clip, which he’s done so far in the majors and throughout most of his minor-league career. This also comes with a sky-high walk rate, both of which will go a long way towards helping Hoskins avoid growing pains as major league pitchers inevitably adjust to him. He doesn’t have the raw power of a guy like Joey Gallo, but it’s also unlikely to take him four major league stints across parts of three seasons before we start taking him seriously. As pitchers adjust, his plate discipline should prevent him from just flailing away helplessly. This, of course, all plays into why THE BAT is such a believer despite the non-elite raw power. Even with the inevitable drop-off in power production to one degree or another, Hoskins has other skills to provide value.
Hoskins skeptics may also point out the extreme home run park he played in (+25% or so) when he hit 38 home runs last year at Double-A Reading. THE BAT, though, accounts for this and likes Hoskins anyway. Plus, Triple-A Lehigh Valley suppresses home runs by about 10%, and Hoskins still hit for great power there this year. And, of course, Hoskins will be aided at the major league level by one of the most extreme home run parks in all of baseball, Citizens Bank Park. Yes, Hoskins gets less credit for hitting so well in a hitters’ park, but he doesn’t get zero credit. His minor league numbers were not driven solely or even mostly by parks. He still projects out well once you account for the parks, plus he’ll get similarly good context in half of his games in the majors. And for a guy who isn’t crushing the ball, having shorter fences will definitely make a difference.
Hoskins’s home run chart also suggests he’s the type of guy to receive a lot of benefit from the extra 10 feet or so of distance the new baseballs being used in the major leagues this year impart. For Judge, there’s no difference between 450 and 460 feet (both are home runs everywhere). But for Hoskins, the difference between 390 and 400 could be the difference between a warning track flyball and a home run. Minor league balls don’t have the same properties as the new major league balls do, so this will actually be an upgrade for Hoskins. Sure, as with all minor leaguers he’ll project for less power in the majors, have a harder time squaring up major league pitching, etc. But the extra distance from the ball paired with the shorter fences from the park would seem to be the ideal fit for a guy with his power profile.
All told, while we should temper expectations just a bit, Hoskins looks like a legitimately great major league hitter in a great situation. Don’t go overboard with forcing him into your lineups when he goes on the road to pitchers’ park (being matchup-agnostic for guys on hot streaks is always terrible anyway), but overall there is a lot to like about Hoskins and his situation. Good (if not quite great) power. Elite plate discipline. And environmental context that fits his power profile well. He won’t keep up this pace, and pitchers will make adjustments, but he seems well-equipped to handle those adjustments and keep right on being productive.
Rising… Also Legitimately
Luke Weaver, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Fresh off Luke Weaver chalk night and on the heels of what’s bound to be another, it seems appropriate to discuss his rest-of-season prospects. Weaver was a trendy pick down the stretch of the 2016 season, but he’s made just three starts in 2017, due in large part to the unpredictable nature of the St. Louis Cardinals and manager Mike Matheny. Sure, they’ve had a full rotation most of the year, but Weaver is their most talented pitcher apart from Carlos Martinez. THE BAT views Weaver as a top 45-ish pitcher in all of baseball in a neutral context. That would make him a solid number-two starter, and yet he’s scrounging for starts. Young guys just get the shaft sometimes.
But with Adam Wainwright on the DL and shut down through at least the end of the week, Weaver may have an opportunity to establish himself in the eyes of Matheny. Given his excellent outing against the Padres and another great matchup on Tuesday against the Brewers, my hope is that even if Wainwright returns soon, Weaver could stick around in the rotation. Bumping a guy like Lance Lynn or Michael Wacha to the bullpen would certainly make sense and improve the team, but it’s tough to know if they’d consider an approach like that.
As far as Weaver himself, he doesn’t have top-shelf stuff, but he has good stuff. He has multiple pitches, plus control, plus command, and the support of THE BAT. I mentioned that THE BAT likes him as a top-45 pitcher in a neutral context, but the Cardinals don’t play in a neutral context. They play in the National League in a pitchers’ park with an above-average starting catcher in Yadier Molina, which makes Weaver even better than top-45.
Many played Weaver last time out as a price and matchup play, but THE BAT viewed him as one of the top plays of the night regardless of price, and it’s likely to do the same on Tuesday given the strikeout upside of the Brewers. What will be telling is how many people play him should he draw another start later in the week in San Francisco or next week against Pittsburgh. It’s possible Wainwright is back by then and Weaver gets demoted, but if he sticks around and remains so inexpensive, he could be an excellent sneaky option in less-than-desirable matchups (or in decent matchups once his price rises). He absolutely has the talent to succeed in those kinds of spots, and that’s something many DFS players might not realize.