Risers and Fallers: Volume 6
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on. If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
STILL RISING… BUT I’M STILL NOT BUYING
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox
I wrote up JBJ last week, but I think he’s worth talking about again as his hot streak continues and people are wondering how I could possibly tell you not to play him. My issues with Jackie isn’t how good he’s been, but how he’s been good. Let’s ignore for a moment that he hits in the bottom third of the order and just focus on what he does in the opportunities he gets. Yes, he’s cut his strikeout down a bit and is hitting for a bit more power this year, but most of his value has come from hits on balls in play. He ranks eighth in baseball with a .394 BABIP, which might sound good—eighth in baseball!—but it actually goes to show just how little we actually know about Bradley.
I did a study for Baseball Prospectus a few years ago that shows how much variance there is in BABIP. I found that it takes roughly two and a half years’ worth of data before we’d be able to use a hitter’s actual BABIP to predict his future BABIP better than simply assuming he will have a league average BABIP (and that’s if we consider the data from two and half years ago to have just as much meaning as the data from this year, which clearly isn’t true). Two and a half years before we’re able to do better than shrugging our shoulders and saying, “Eh, I guess this guy is okay.” That will be hard for some people to come to terms with, and there are some of you who will read this and write it off as not possibly be right, Carty’s an idiot, but it is 100% true.
If we were to look at JBJ’s .394 BABIP in 168 plate appearances and consider that it takes roughly 1500 plate appearances before that .394 BABIP would hold as much predictive value as a league average .295 BABIP, our best guess as to JBJ’s underlying BABIP talent would be comprised of 10% JBJ and 90% league average. Calculate it out, and you get .305. And that’s ignoring how good his park is for boosting BABIP as well as his terrible .246 and .284 marks in 2013 and 2014. Now THE BAT uses some tricks that wind up projecting him higher than that, but assuming that he’s anywhere close to level that he’s performed at to this point in 2016 is just downright wrong. In the first half last year, one of the BABIP leaders was another Red Sox outfielder, Brock Holt. He hit .377 (in a bigger sample than Jackie) but fell back to .322 in the second half and .261 this year.
Many will point to Bradley’s .433 wOBA and try to call him a great hitter now, but those who do that will be wrong, because they’re ignoring how that wOBA was arrived at—namely, by way of a type of performance that we can believe very little about given the sample size.
Oh, and by the way, do you know who the BABIP leader this year is at .451? Mark Reynolds, and I don’t hear anyone trying to call him the best hitter in baseball like I’ve heard for Bradley. Bradley just seems more believable, even though objectively he shouldn’t be.
RISING… BUT I’M NOT BUYING
Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland A’s
It should be little surprise that I’m not buying into Valencia and his mini-hot streak if I’m not buying into JBJ and his big one. Valencia has cooled off a bit the past three games, but there’s nothing in his profile to indicate he’s suddenly turned a corner or become a power monster after his six home runs in five days. His numbers are all up a tick this year, primarily his flyball rate, which has jumped from 30% to 40%. But his HR/FB rate (22% down to 19%) and his hard contact rate (35% up to 41%) are well within the bounds of variance. His plate discipline profile is the same, and basically Valencia is what he’s always been: a guy who can hit for some power without killing you with strikeouts, particularly against left-handed pitching.
PROSPECT SPOTLIGHT
Colin Moran, 3B, Houston Astros
The Astros called up prospect Colin Moran this week, who is definitely a name prospect, but opinions on him seem to be mixed. He hasn’t overwhelmed statistically in the minors, and I’ve heard from some who don’t think he’ll ever be an everyday player. His game is much more about plate discipline and gap power than it is about home runs, and the upside there is limited. While that package isn’t impressive, that kind of potential steadiness can be appealing when he’s hit sixth for one of the best offenses in baseball, as he has the last two games they’ve faced right-handers. He’s the bare minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings (the latter of which he’s the better play for) and could be a worthwhile punt on days the Astros have good matchups.
RISING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Rickie Weeks, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
I have to say, I didn’t think Rickie Weeks would ever re-emerge as a viable fantasy option, but he’s actually an interesting punt in the right matchups. He doesn’t play often, especially with the D-backs becoming increasingly willing to play Chris Hermann in the outfield, but when he does play, he hits in a great spot in the order, calls a great park home, and is dirt cheap. He’s started a total of five games this year, but he’s hit cleanup three times, second once, and fifth once. His price has fallen back to the minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and a minimum priced cleanup hitter in Chase Field is worth well more than that. Especially when that hitter is one of the league’s leaders in hard hit rate at 45%. The sample is small, of course, but Weeks can provide cheap power, speed, and value on the occasional days he plays.
Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, San Diego Padres
Wallace is another name that I figured was all but washed up, but he’s in the midst of a great year and has apparently gained the trust of the Padres, who have hit him cleanup against 14 of the last 15 right-handers they’ve faced. He’s never hit for much average, but he has some power, and the RBI and run opportunities are nice, even in a weak Padres lineup. Plus, he has a huge true platoon split, making him a pretty solid player against right-handed pitching. You’ll want to pick and choose your spots with him, but when he’s priced in the mid-$2000s as he has been on DraftKings of late, he’s a solid punt on days he gets out of Petco to face a weak righty (particularly when he has third base eligibility). He’ll face the Diamondbacks in Chase Field this week with Shelby Miller slated for one of the games; that looks like a prime spot to me.
FALLING… AND I WON’T BE FOOLED BY THE LOW PRICE AGAIN
Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros
I was tempted by the low price ($7,000 on DraftKings) and good matchup (Rangers with lots of lefties and dead spots, like Drew Stubbs leading off) for Keuchel on Sunday, but NEVER AGAIN. Keuchel is clearly broken and just isn’t worth taking the risk on as anything other than a GPP flier until he gets himself right. His velocity is still down, he’s still walking more players than ever, and he’s still getting obliterated.
Statistically you can point to the .339 BABIP and expect it to come down—which would bring Keuchel closer to his very serviceable 3.82 xFIP—but I’m not sure it’s all bad luck. I’ve noticed something with Keuchel’s location charts that Jason Collette also brought up recently on a FanGraphs podcast. Basically, Keuchel used to work the corners of the plate extremely well, running pitches away from hitters. This year, though, he’s throwing the bulk of his pitches right down the heart of the plate, particularly to lefties, which wipes out a lot of the platoon advantage he should have against them. It’s no wonder batters are getting so many hits off him. Especially when working with a great pitch-framing catcher in Jason Castro that can get you calls on the edges of the plate, for Keuchel to be missing so egregiously and so frequently is just a shame.
He’ll get the Angels in pitcher-friendly Anaheim this week. He will surely project well and be tempting for the price, but until he proves he can make adjustments, I’m going to have to stay away.
FALLING… AND UNDERPRICED ONCE AGAIN
Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
Odor spent some time up in the mid-to-high $4,000s on both FanDuel and DraftKings a couple weeks ago, and then it looked like his value would fall with the return of Shin-Soo Choo to the leadoff spot. Choo promptly got injured, though, and may require another DL stint. If he does, Odor’s price has fallen back to $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel. That’s a bit much on FD, but on DK that leaves plenty of room for value. Odor is an above-average hitter with a large platoon split that does a little bit of everything: power, speed, contact. At the top of a good lineup, at a shallow position, he’ll be in play most days he’s at home in Texas against mediocre or weak righties. That will be the case several times this week, as Nick Tropeano, Jhoulys Chacin, and Juan Nicasio come to town. Odor will likely have to serve a suspension at some point, but while he appeals I’m going to keep rolling him out there.