RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 13

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-12-04 15:49:41

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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Editor’s Note: NFL Networks’ Ian Rapoport is reporting that Marvin Jones is a “long-shot to play,” but according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Lions will test Jones’s leg during pre-game warmups before making a determination.

JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Lions at Saints

Vegas-Implied Total: Saints 29.5, Lions 24.0

KEY MATCHUPS:

Saints Run D – 15th DVOA / 9th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O – 31st DVOA / 25th Yards per carry

Saints Pass D – 25th DVOA / 28th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Lions Pass O – 10th DVOA / 13th Yards per pass attempt

Lions Run D – 28th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 6th DVOA / 9th Yards per carry

Lions Pass D – 32nd DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 5th DVOA / 5th Yards per pass attempt

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While most people know, off of the top of their head, that the Saints are one of the NFL’s faster-paced teams, many forget or downright fail to realize that the Lions intentionally slow down the pace – ranking 30th in the NFL in pace of play on the season. Only five teams in the NFL allow fewer plays per game than the Lions, while the Saints rank second in the NFL in plays per game. This week, the Saints should see fewer plays than normal, as they average 69.5 plays per game but project for around 66 plays this week, while the Lions project for around 60 plays.

That’s the bad news for the Saints. And it’s the end of the bad news for the Saints.

This week, the Saints have the highest Vegas-implied total on the weekend, and there is very little reason to expect that they will fail to reach this projection. Earlier in the season, teams could run the ball on the Saints to shorten the game, but not only have the Saints drastically improved on the ground as the season has gone along, but the Lions are awful at running the ball. This should lead to the Lions playing their typically pass-leaning game (Detroit ranks seventh in the NFL in passing play percentage), and it should lead to the sort of shootout this game, at first glance, seems it would be. The Saints’ home games this year have had combined totals of 69, 77, 79, 45 (vs Seattle), 48 (vs Denver), and 70. If you are a sports bettor (I am not, myself, though I certainly would be in this spot this weekend if I were in Vegas), I would pound the over on this game. If you are a DFS player (I assume you are, as you are reading this article…), I would feel comfortable loading up. On our Absolutely Epic Early-Week Podcast this week, my bold call was that at least six non-quarterbacks in this game would top 20 fantasy points (DraftKings scoring).

Brees should throw the ball a good 40 times in this game, and we know that the Saints will throw the ball when they get close to the goal line. Brees ranks third in the NFL in pass attempts in the red zone, and he ranks second in pass attempts inside the 10-yard-line. Seattle is the only team against which Brees has failed to top 300 yards at home this season, and he has topped 400 yards twice, with at least three passing touchdowns in every home game that came against a team other than Seattle.

Breaking down Brees’ pass catchers is a bit tougher, as the entire Saints offense has combined for only five double-digit target games on the year (three for Michael Thomas, and one apiece for Willie Snead and Coby Fleener). This is in spite of the Saints having the second most pass attempts in the NFL – which indicates just how comfortable this offense is spreading the ball around.

I do expect the Saints to focus this week on getting Brandin Cooks involved early and often after his Week 12 goose egg (not only zero catches, but zero targets as well) – though he did have only one game in his previous four with more than six targets. Cooks is a massive-reward play this week, but he does come with some risk.

Michael Thomas is the clear number one option on this offense. He should be followed by Darius Slay this week (Slay has Pro Football Focus’ number five cornerback grade), but this is not enough to scare me off Thomas.

The best matchup belongs to Willie Snead in the slot, against Quandre Diggs, who ranks 86th among all NFL corners according to PFF. Ultimately, though, I would not worry too much about matchups in this spot; the Lions’ pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA on both the left and right side of the field, they rank 28th over the middle, they rank 24th at defending deep passes, and they rank 31st at defending short passes. They also rank 28th against the tight end, though Coby Fleener played only 18 snaps last week, making him a dart throw more than anything, and Josh Hill has only three games all year with more than two targets. Hill played on 58 snaps last week, as he is the superior blocker, but he’s not an elite playmaker, making him a tough sell in DFS.

The Saints’ backfield is in an equally good spot…and is equally difficult to figure out. Over the last four weeks, Tim Hightower has seen touch totals of 17, 20, 10, and 24 (while averaging under four yards per carry in three of those games), while Mark Ingram has seen touch totals during that same stretch of 15, 10, 13, and 17 (while averaging over four yards per carry in all four…and averaging over 10 yards per carry in two of those games). Ingram is the far better player, but with no end in sight to the workload split, you’re basically banking on a long touchdown run from Ingram, or on low-efficiency volume from Hightower.

From a “normal football” perspective, the Lions’ run game is off limits, though the Lions’ backfield is not normal. Theo Riddick has seen nine or more carries in seven of his last eight games, and he has seen five or more targets in seven of his last eight games as well. Perhaps even more importantly, Riddick has caught 77% of these targets, which makes these looks pretty guaranteed touches each game. Riddick also has a solid five targets inside the 10-yard-line (though he does have only one carry inside the five-yard-line), making him a decent bet for a receiving touchdown against a Saints defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against running backs out of the backfield.

Matthew Stafford projects to throw around 38 passes this week, and this is a great bounce-back spot for him after facing Minnesota (twice), Jacksonville, Houston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia in six of his last seven games. Throw in Washington as the other opponent, and Stafford has faced a top-18 DVOA pass defense in seven straight weeks. While “seven straight weeks under 280 passing yards” is disappointing even with that schedule, this matchup provides every opportunity for things to shift the other way.

New Orleans ranks 21st in DVOA against the tight end, they rank 29th in DVOA against the deep ball, and they rank 22nd in DVOA against short pass attempts. The Saints are particularly susceptible on the left side of the field (where Marvin Jones lines up over 50% of the time) – ranking 31st in DVOA at defending that third of the field. Last week’s 11 targets for Jones were a bit fluky, as Eric Ebron saw only one target (after seeing five, eight, and 10 over the Lions’ previous three games), but this is a good matchup for Jones – with the caveat that his targets are still uncertain.

This is also a great spot for Golden Tate, whose targets have dipped a bit the last couple weeks with Riddick and Ebron fully healthy, but he still has tremendous upside in this spot.

Finally, realize that Anquan Boldin (yes, that Anquan Boldin) is in play as well, with nine targets in back-to-back games, and with most of his routes these days basically falling into the “tight end” category. Boldin and Marvin are tied for the team lead in targets inside the 10-yard-line with six apiece, and Boldin should have no trouble racking up some yards in this game as well.

Players I like in cash games: Drew Brees, Tim Hightower, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, Theo Riddick Eric Ebron

Players I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: Willie Snead, Coby Fleener, Josh Hill, Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

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Quarterback