RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 14

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-12-09 14:28:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Saints at Buccaneers

Vegas-Implied Total: Buccaneers 26.75, Saints 24.25

KEY MATCHUPS:

Buccaneers Run D – 23rd DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 6th DVOA / 9th Yards per carry

Buccaneers Pass D – 9th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 5th DVOA / 6th Yards per pass attempt

Saints Run D – 16th DVOA / 10th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O – 30th DVOA / 29th Yards per carry

Saints Pass D – 26th DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass O – 8th DVOA / 15th Yards per pass attempt

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The Saints and Bucs both rank in the top half of the NFL in pace of play, and each team ranks in the top three in the NFL in plays per game. The Bucs project to hit their average of around 68 or 69 plays in this one, while the Saints project to be a couple ticks below their average – around 66 or 67 plays. (Either way, each team should run more plays than most other teams will run this week.)

While we have several games this week with temperatures in the 30s (or lower), this game will also be played in 74 degree temps. Outside of this being a division game, there is very little to dislike in this spot this week – in the game with the highest Over/Under on the weekend.

We’ll start with the Saints, where ownership should be fairly low after “(player-popup)Drew Brees”:/players/drew-brees-11605’ meltdown last week in the Superdome. I will say that I have some slight concerns about Brees’ health (nothing has been said by the Saints or Saints’ beat writers, so this is simply conjecture, but Brees took far more checkdowns last week than we typically see him take, which is not exactly a sign of a healthy quarterback; this being the Saints – who hide injury information more than any team this side of the Bears – it’s not unreasonable to think Brees is dealing with an undisclosed ailment; having said all that…). Although the Bucs rank ninth in DVOA against the pass, their yards allowed per pass attempt (30th) tells a different story. Furthermore, the Saints should throw the ball around 40 times, so on volume alone, Brees is a solid play. Given that Brees is on the road (where most avoid him) and had a horrible game last week at high ownership – and is furthermore the highest-priced quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel – this is one of those rare situations in which you can get Brees in the highest Over/Under of the week at low ownership. He’s unnecessary in cash, but he makes for a strong tourney play.

Brees’ pass catchers are a bit tougher to unravel, as Michael Thomas is looking mighty unlikely this week (after back-to-back missed practices), which will leave the Saints with Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and Brandon Coleman. We’ll start from the top of that list in breaking things down.

Cooks is a tough sell for me, being that this game is being played outside the comfy confines of the Superdome. A look at his game logs over the last couple years away from the Superdome tells a stark story regarding the difference in his floor/ceiling at home and away.

Snead is also a tough sell from an “upside” perspective (though, as noted last week when we had interest in Dontrelle Inman, the Bucs rank 23rd in DVOA over the middle, compared to 2nd on the left side of the field and 12th on the right side of the field).

The guy who should see the biggest bump this week if Thomas misses is Coleman, who was supposed to be last year what Thomas has been this year. Coleman saw 70 snaps in Week 3 when Willie Snead missed, and he drew eight targets, which he reeled in for a 7-78-0 line. This might feel like a risky play, but if Thomas misses, it’s really not all that risky. Josh Hill is out, which makes it tougher for the Saints to roll with two tight ends, and this should mean Coleman will see a large number of play on the field, in a plus matchup, with Drew Brees at quarterback.

Finally, we should see a spike in snaps for Coby Fleener this week, as the Saints will be forced to rely on him more heavily than they have wanted to lately. Although the Bucs rank sixth in DVOA against the position, they have allowed moderate production all year to tight ends, and Fleener could see a decent chunk of targets.

The Saints’ backfield is more difficult to figure out, as Mark Ingram missed practice on Thursday, but he suited up last week after hardly practicing all week. He should be expected to take the field again, in spite of clearly not being 100%. This takes Ingram off the table for me, and it should theoretically provide a big bump to teacher’s pet Tim Hightower, but Hightower saw fewer touches last week than Travaris Cadet. I nearly rolled with Hightower last week, with the assumption Ingram would see limited work; when Ingram left the field early in obvious pain, I was regretting that I had not used Hightower…then Hightower proceeded to touch the ball only three times. This backfield is an absolute guessing game at the moment, and I will be staying away.

The Bucs get to take on the matchup fantasy owners have been targeting all year: a Saints defense that has allowed players at every position to perform at above-average levels. The interesting thing about targeting the Saints’ defense, however, is that they are so poor against so many positions, they don’t really funnel action toward any one spot. This actually creates a situation in which individual-player upside is not as high as we would optimally like (or…at least, not as predictably high). Nevertheless, there is plenty to like on this side of the ball.

The Bucs’ backfield is not part of that “plenty to like” at the moment, as Doug Martin has drawn the ire of the coaching staff, and reports out of Bucs Land indicate that the Bucs will be splitting the load this week between Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers. Against a New Orleans run defense that has improved quite a bit throughout the year, neither guy in a timeshare is much worth our time.

We do, however, love the passing game, primarily because we know where the looks are going to go. With Vincent Jackson long gone, Cecil Shorts done for the year, and Adam Humphries now in concussion protocol, there are three healthy/trusted bodies in this pass game: Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and Russell Shepard. Although Shepard had a couple touchdowns earlier this year for attractive fantasy goodness, he is a special teams ace being pressed into wide receiver duties; he has topped four targets only once all year, and he does not offer a ton of upside in this spot.

Evans, however, is in that classic Evans spot, where he’ll be the focal point of the entire defense, but Jameis Winston should relentlessly target him anyway. I will not be surprised if we see 15 or more targets for Evans this week, making him one of the top, raw-points wide receiver options on the slate.

With Jameis likely to throw 37 or 38 times, this also leaves a lot of looks for Brate, who – as noted previously – has looked genuinely good this year, and who should see seven or more looks of his own. Brate also has 13 red zone targets and six looks inside the 10-yard-line (only Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce have more such looks among tight ends), making him an attractive option all the way around.

Favorite cash game plays: Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, Brandon Coleman (if Michael Thomas is out), Coby Fleener

Favorite tourney plays: All of the above, plus: Drew Brees, Jameis Winston

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

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FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Quarterback