RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 15

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-12-16 14:42:56

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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JMToWin’s NFL Edge

49ers at Falcons

Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 32.75, 49ers 18.75

KEY MATCHUPS:

Falcons Run D – 28th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O – 3rd DVOA / 4th Yards per carry

Falcons Pass D – 23rd DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per pass attempt
49ers Pass O – 29th DVOA / 30th Yards per pass attempt

49ers Run D – 31st DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 6th DVOA / 18th Yards per carry

49ers Pass D – 29th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 2nd DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt

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The 49ers, of course, play at the NFL’s fastest pace, while the Falcons rank in the middle of the pack. The Falcons project for about 68 plays – which would be about six above their average (though, of course, that could be slowed down if the Falcons take a big lead and run out the clock in the fourth quarter), while the 49ers project for around 64 plays, which is a couple above their average.

The big concern this week for the Falcons (the only concern, I should say) is that they could take a monster lead in this game and rest their starters the rest of the way. Matt Ryan has not thrown more than 35 pass attempts in two months, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week, as the Falcons should be able to manhandle the “don’t care” 49ers. With that said, Ryan should do plenty of damage on the 30 to 35 throws he has – approaching 300 yards and dropping in at least a couple touchdown passes. Given the high likelihood that this game gets out of hand, there are a fair few quarterbacks on the slate who boast the same ceiling as Ryan, but probably no one has his Week 15 floor.

Ryan’s weapons are another story, as Julio Jones seems unlikely to play again this week, in a game the Falcons can win without him. Mohamed Sanu is still up in the air as well.

Last week, Ryan distributed six targets to running backs, four targets to tight ends, two targets to Justin Hardy, and six targets apiece to Taylor Gabriel and Aldrick Robinson. It is worth noting that Gabriel’s role did not change at all; he saw six targets for the second straight week (after seeing five the previous three weeks), and he saw one carry (after seeing zero, one, zero, and two over the previous four weeks). If you felt Gabriel was too boom-or-bust for you to roster a couple weeks ago at a lower price, you can feel comfortable feeling the same way still. I like Gabriel as a guy with big-play upside against a defense that bleeds big plays, but I’ll probably stay away if it seems he’ll be chalky, as he still carries a very low floor.

If Mohamed Sanu plays, he’ll likely grab seven or eight targets himself, making him a viable option. If Sanu sits, I expect another six or seven looks for Aldrick Robinson, making him a solid point-per-dollar floor play as well.

Finally, on the off chance Sanu and Julio both play, realize that Gabriel’s role still will not change. If you like Gabriel right now but wish he weren’t going to be popular, you should like him a whole lot more if those guys take the field, as his role will remain the same, but his ownership will plummet.

It has been nearly two months since Devonta Freeman hit 20 touches in a game, as the Falcons seem thoroughly content to hold him back and keep him fresh. Even when Tevin Coleman was out, the Falcons were giving Coleman’s usual looks to Terron Ward, rather than giving them to Devonta. Last week, I nearly made the mistake of rostering Devonta, with the thinking being that the Falcons would lean more heavily on the running backs as a whole with Julio out. I expect Devonta to be somewhat chalky this week, but I’ll reiterate what we brought up last week in regards to the 49ers’ run defense, which has tightened up a bit lately. This is what I said last week:

In Week 10, the 49ers allowed only 55 yards to David Johnson on 19 carries. In Week 11, they allowed 124 yards on 19 carries to LeGarrette Blount – though if you take away his 44-yard run in clock-killing mode, the 49ers held him to a more respectable 18 for 80. They then held Jay Ajayi to 45 yards on 18 carries (and that was with a long run of 18 yards – so Ajayi’s other 17 carries went for 27 yards), and while Jordan Howard cracked 100 yards last week (117 total), it took him 32 carries to get there.

Of course, Bilal Powell ripped through them for 145 yards last week, but let’s keep in mind that it took 29 carries to get there. Devonta Freeman will likely see 16 or 17 carries, and Tevin Coleman may see around 10. It’s still a solid matchup, and either guy could post a big game if they add touchdowns, but don’t expect either guy to post a monster week for you on yardage alone.

The 49ers are, at this point, reduced to two players we can talk about:

Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde.

Theoretically, this is a solid spot for Kaep, but I am concerned about the play-calling on the 49ers at the moment. I’ve never taken this stance before with a team (well…except the Curtis Painter Colts – but that one was so obvious it was painful), but it truly seems like Chip Kelly is tanking. He’s been calling run plays in obvious passing situations. He completely took his foot off the gas with a moderate lead last week. I don’t want to rely on a quarterback on a team that seems uninterested in winning. If I change my stance on Kaep later in the week, I’ll let you know at the top of the article when I update on Saturday night or Sunday morning, but for now I plan to stay away.

Carlos Hyde, on the other hand, benefits from the way the 49ers are playing at the moment, as they continue to feed him the ball regardless of the situation or score. He has 18 or more touches in each of the 49ers’ last four games, and I expect him in a similar range this week. While that’s not quite enough usage for him to be labeled a can’t-miss play, the matchup is great against a Falcons defense that has been tormented by running backs throughout the season, and that should be able to switch to a prevent-style defense later in the game…as the 49ers continue to run the ball.

Players I like in cash games: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Aldrick Robinson (if Julio Jones is out)

Players I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, and Colin Kaepernick (in large-field GPPs only)

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

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FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Quarterback

It’s still early in the week and I could certainly change my mind, but I’m planning on going right back to the Colin Kaepernick well this week. He was benched in Chicago because he couldn’t hold on to the ball in the snow two weeks ago and then the Niners got out to a big lead last week and abandoned the passing game. As 14-point underdogs against the Falcons, they will have to air it out. I love the upside that he adds on the ground and it’s not like Atlanta has an intimidating pass defense.