Super Bowl 59 Novelty Props
I’ve been fortunate to write all kinds of content for RotoGrinders, but this annual piece might be my favorite. It’s equal parts silliness and serious research.
Here’s your guide to Super Bowl 59 novelty props.
Super Bowl 59 Novelty Props
The Coin Toss
Like I say every year, try to find odds as close to even money as possible. It’s literally a coin flip. BetMGM is offering both sides at -102, which looks like the best price right now.
Quick stats
- Tails leads 30-28 all time.
- Heads hit last year, but Tails has hit 7 of the last 11 times.
- It’s a 2-2 tie in Patrick Mahomes’ 4 Super Bowl appearances (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024).
Over the past 15 years, the flip has alternated just twice. All other stretches have included 2+ years of the same result. It’s been a streaky coin. Tails has had 3 different streaks of 4 straight winners, with the last one being 2014-17. Heads won 5 straight years from 2009-13.
THE PICK: Heads. With it hitting last season and 3 of the past 4 years, we seem to be on a Heads streak. I’ll ride the wave.
Gatorade Color
Purple has hit 2 straight seasons, with the Chiefs going that route to shower Andy Reid. Purple is unsurprisingly the favorite this year (+175 on DraftKings). BetMGM has Yellow/Green as a close 2nd (+250). DraftKings went with Orange as it’s 2nd option (+250). Red and Blue round out the top 5 at both books. Clear/Water and None are 8-1 or longer.
Quick stats
- Philadelphia used Yellow/Green when they won in 2018.
- While Kansas City has gone Purple the past 2 years, they used Orange in 2020.
- Blue was used in 3 of the past 6 seasons (the non-Chiefs years).
- There wasn’t a Gatorade shower in 2013 and 2017 (None is +2500 on BetMGM).
Philadelphia used Yellow/Green following their NFC Championship win this year and had it on the sidelines for their 2023 Super Bowl loss.
THE PICK: Purple. If Kansas City completes the three-peat, it’s hard to imagine them changing colors. Yellow/Green is certainly a viable candidate if you like the Eagles to win. I don’t see much value in the other options.
Jersey of 1st TD Scorer
FanDuel has Over 15.5 (-120) / Under 15.5 (-110)
Quick stats
- Philadelphia has scored the 1st TD in 15 of 20 games.
- Saquon Barkley was the 1st TD scorer 6 times.
- Kansas City has scored the 1st TD in 11 of 19 games.
- Kareem Hunt was the 1st TD scorer 5 times.
- The teams are a combined 5-0 scoring the 1st TD in the postseason.
Here are the top candidates on each side (with Caesars 1st TD odds):
- Jersey number over 15.5 (odds to be 1st TD scorer) – Saquon Barkley (+425), Kareem Hunt (+900), Travis Kelce (+900), Dallas Goedert (+1800), Noah Gray (+2700)
- Jersey number under 15.5 (odds to be 1st TD scorer) – Jalen Hurts (+650), Xavier Worthy (+1100), A.J. Brown (+1100), DeVonta Smith (+1600), Marquise Brown (+1700), Isiah Pacheco (+1700), Patrick Mahomes (+1800), JuJu Smith-Schuster (+3000), DeAndre Hopkins (+3300)
This is a tricky one. Three of the top four options in terms of odds are in the over 15.5 jersey number bucket, including Barkley, who’s the favorite by a decent margin. Then you get basically every other reasonable candidate in the under 15.5 bucket. Hurts is a solid option for Tush Push reasons, and he could steal an opportunity from Barkley if Philly gets tackled near the goal line.
THE PICK: Over 15.5. Getting Barkley and Hunt seems like the best route. It makes sense that this group is -120 even with fewer candidates. All three TEs are in the mix in the red zone, so the Kelce/Goedert/Gray trio is a strong backup contingent. I’m fully prepared to get devastated by a Brotherly Shove.
Position of MVP
Quarterbacks dominate this award, just like regular season MVP. However, Barkley is shaking up the market this year. He actually has better individual odds than Hurts, which makes this market extremely interesting. FanDuel has Quarterback all the way down at -180. DraftKings is at -250, which is still low for normal standards. Quarterback was -650 on DraftKings in 2023, and it hit (Mahomes).
Quick stats
- A quarterback has won 33 times.
- A running back has won 7 times, but it hasn’t happened in the 21st century (Terrell Davis in 1997).
- A tight end has never won.
Two defensive players have won in the past 11 years (Malcolm Smith in 2013 and Von Miller in 2015), but the books are specific with defensive positions. FanDuel has odds for defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back. DraftKings splits defensive back into cornerback and safety. The specificity makes those longshots even longer.
THE PICK: Running Back (+260). It’s interesting that FanDuel has the shortest odds for QB and the longest odds for RB. Definitely bet it there if you want either of those positions. Barkley has had a historic playoff run, and earning Super Bowl MVP could make up for not winning regular season MVP (which seems unlikely).
Will there be an Octopus?
This was my big winner from the last time these two teams faced off in the title game. Hurts recorded the first octopus in Super Bowl history, scoring from 2 yards out and then plunging in for the 2-point conversion to tie the game in the 4th quarter. We hit it at +1400, and the odds moved down under 10-to-1 last year. There wasn’t an octopus in 2024, as neither team had a 2-point attempt.
For those unfamiliar, an octopus is scoring a touchdown and 2-point conversion consecutively.
Quick stats
- There have been 197 octopuses since the institution of the 2-point conversion (1994).
- There were 12 octopuses this season.
- Barkley recorded an octopus in Week 3 against New Orleans.
Hurts has two octopuses in his career, but he hasn’t done it since the 2023 Super Bowl. Mahomes has one, back in Week 9 of 2022. Philadelphia was on the receiving end of an octopus in Week 11, with old friend Zach Ertz catching a short TD then securing the 2-pointer from Jayden Daniels.
THE PICK: Yes (+1300 on ESPN BET). It only feels right to go back to Hurts and the Eagles this year. We now have the added equity of Barkley, who’s -200 to score a TD at some books. If the Eagles have a 2-point attempt, it’s highly likely that Hurts or Barkley are involved.
For The Swifties
The Taylor Swift-themed props are back this season. Last year, we hit “I Knew You Were Trouble” (Christian McCaffrey 150+ total yards) and “Mine” (Kelce 87+ receiving yards).
Here are a handful of my favorites from this year’s batch on DraftKings …
- Fifteen: Patrick Mahomes to Have 15+ Rush Yards & 215+ Pass Yards (-175) – This one feels like a layup. Mahomes runs more often in the playoffs. Philly has the offensive firepower to force the Chiefs into passing situations.
- Mine: Kelce 87+ receiving yards and a TD (+450) – Running it back! They attached a touchdown this year, but the odds went from +190 to +450. I’ll gladly back one of the most reliable postseason players ever.
- Anti-Hero: Jalen Hurts to Throw 3+ Pass TDs & Score 1+ Rush TD (+1600) – I get this reference! Hurts only had 1 passing TD last week, but the Eagles got back on track through the air. Just need some of those rushing TDs to turn into passing scores.
- the 1: Xavier Worthy to Score 1+ Receiving TD & 1+ Rushing TD (+3000) – Worthy has been Kansas City’s most productive receiver for much of the season. He’s routinely involved in the red zone when the Chiefs break out their gadget plays. He’s a good bet for a few carries and some red zone targets.
More importantly, what are the odds that Taylor will announce Reputation TV on Super Bowl Sunday?!
Image Credit: Getty Images