The Reid Option: Week 6
Mike Postle. Mike Postle. Mike Postle.
These days, that name is being spoken with the same weight as “Kaiser Soze”. If you’re one of the many DFS players who also happens to follow poker, you’re likely now aware of who Mike Postle is and of the cheating scandal at Stones Gambling Hall that’s swept over the poker world during the past week.
If you’re not, you can watch a quick Doug Polk video or a long Joey Ingram video or read this article on The Ringer or even watch Scott Van Pelt talk about it on ESPfreakinN. Or if you couldn’t give two squirts about any of this, feel free to skip this entire intro since it has nothing to do with DFS or this week’s slate. I promise I won’t be offended – I support you living your best life, my friends.
The reason that I’ve been so riveted by this cheating scandal is that I have a unique perspective on it – because I played on this very stream against Postle several times this year. And of course, he owned me in pretty much every hand that I got involved with him in. So, I thought a fun thing to do would be to break down a couple of these hands here, with a little commentary about what I was thinking at the time – followed by what was actually going on in retrospect now that we’re reasonably sure that he actually knew everyone’s cards in real time.
HAND 1: Occurs at 2:38:00 of the 1st stream I played
PREFLOP: (Blinds are $1/$2/$3/$6 – $1 on the button and $6 in the straddle)
A weak player ($750) raises to $20 under the gun
Hero ($735) is next to act and 3-bets to $65 with Ad Jc
Postle ($2400) cold-calls $65 in the SB with 3h 3c
Weak player folds
Usually I just fold AJ offsuit here, but the UTG raiser is a weak player and I want to isolate him. I’d 3-bet him earlier in the session, and in that hand he’d reluctantly called with AJ suited and then folded to a bet on the flop when he missed. He had said he didn’t even want to call preflop but 2 other players had also called. This let me know that he was uncomfortable playing 3-bet pots without premium hands, and that he’d play straightforwardly and weakly post-flop. I had also shown KK in that hand, so my 3-bets should have credibility.
Usually cold-calling a 3-bet with a small pair out of position is a severe leak, but Postle can get away with it because he knows that I have AJ and he can outplay me if I don’t hit a pair, and get away cheaply if I do. He’s fixing to swindle Sammy out of some money.
FLOP ($160): 8c 5c 2d
Postle checks
Hero bets $100
Postle check-calls $100
I bet since this flop should favor my early position 3-betting range. What I mean is that my hand could be AA, KK, and QQ based on my action, while Postle rarely has those since he just flat-called my 3-bet out of position instead of 4-betting himself. He will tend to have a number of pocket pairs in his range, however – hands like 99, 77, 66, etc. So I decide I’m going to set up a 3-barrel all-in bluff, starting with a flop bet of $100.
Postle decides to just call since he knows my hand, and take the pot away from me on the turn if I miss since there will only be one more card to come.
TURN ($360): 8h
Postle leads for $160
Hero calls $160
This is the worst card in the deck for me since I should never have any 8s in my early position 3-betting range, so even if I have a big pocket pair like AA I should be afraid that Postle has an 8. This ruins my plan to 3-barrel bluff, and then it gets even worse when Postle bets out instead of checking.
I decide to call his bet though, because I think Postle could be betting a lot of other hands, trying to represent the 8. Specifically, he could be betting straight draws like 67, 64, and 43 (he’s very loose preflop), as well as any flush draw – all hands I’m still ahead of.
In actuality, he’s just betting his 33 since he knows he’s ahead.
RIVER ($680): 4s
Postle checks
Hero checks
Postle checks, and I decide to check back. It feels like a thin spot for a bluff, since while I could have a big pair and now think it’s good, I’ve also played my hand like I have a missed club flush draw, and he might call me down with a pair. And because I hold the J of clubs, it’s more likely that I would hold a big flush draw than he does. Plus, I’ve seen Postle make great calls in these situations before, and I’m afraid he’d own me like that here (and of course, he would have).
Postle decides to check because he misjudges me – he thinks it’s more likely that I bluff with my AJ than I call a river bet by him, which isn’t necessarily true. Even so, he wins a nice $680 pot with 33 since he knows I have ace-high, in a spot where most players would have either folded preflop or on the flop.
HAND 2: Occurs at 2:06:00 of the 2nd stream I played
PREFLOP: Blinds are $1/$2/$3
DJ ($340) raises to $15 in middle position with Jd 9d
Hero ($1100) calls $15 in middle position with Qd 10d
Postle ($3400) calls $15 on the button with 10h 6h
Jahav ($1600) calls $15 in the Small Blind with Jh 9c
Chris Moneymaker ($2300) calls $15 in the Big Blind with 8c 7d
FLOP ($75): 6s 10s 4d
Jahav, Moneymaker, and DJ check
Hero bets $35
Postle raises to $100
Moneymaker check-calls $100
Hero calls $100
I flop top pair and after 3 checks, I decide to bet about half-pot. Postle raises and Moneymaker cold-calls his raise. Postle is a good and aggressive post-flop player, so he doesn’t necessarily have me beat here, even though my hand is relatively marginal. He could have flush draws, straight draws, and combo draws like A4 or 54 of spades. When Moneymaker check-calls, often he’s got a draw too, which does make it a bit less likely that Postle has a draw because of card removal.
In actuality, Postle has flopped top 2-pair vs my top pair and Moneymaker’s double-gutter straight draw, and he’s taking us on a scenic trip to Valuetown.
TURN ($375): Kh
Moneymaker and Hero check
Postle bets $230
Moneymaker and Hero call $230
Postle bets again, and Moneymaker calls again. I think I should be folding here since now it’s obvious that Moneymaker has a draw – if he had a big hand like 2-pair or a set, he’d definitely be raising the turn if not the flop. And the most likely draw is a spade flush draw – and if he’s got that, it’s less likely that Postle has one too. Which means that Postle likely has a made hand and is betting for value, which means that I should fold.
Of course, Postle is just so loose and bluffs so much that I can’t bring myself to fold. Well that … and I’m also a payoff wizard by nature.
RIVER ($1065): 4h
Moneymaker and Hero check
Postle bets $270
Moneymaker folds
Hero calls $270
A losing call by your boy, who justified it because he was getting 5.7 to 1 on his call – meaning that I only had to be good about 17%+ of the time to make this a profitable call.
If Postle didn’t know the cards, this would actually be a pretty thin value-bet by him. When the 4 pairs on the river, it significantly decreases the value of his 2-pair. Really the only had that could call him that he beats is 10x (which happens to be exactly what I have) – and usually that hand will fold to a bet anyway (except if it’s me). But if he didn’t know my hand, he’d have to be worried about other hands I might play in this way, like Kx of spades (which flopped a flush draw, hit top pair on the turn, and rivered a better 2-pair), or even JJ that counterfeited him on the river.
As it is, he knows that Moneymaker missed his draw and that I have Q-10. So he bets very small on the river to target my exact hand, and of course I call because I can’t help myself. Postle ends up winning a $1600 pot, over $600 of which was lifted directly from my pockets.
HAND 3: Occurs at 2:03:00 of the 3rd stream I played
PREFLOP: Blinds are $1/$2/$3
2 players limp
DBL-R ($2900) raises to $10 with 8c 3c
Hero ($2000) calls $10 with 7s 7d
Postle ($3400) calls $10 with Ac 8d
Dave C ($3300) 3-bets to $25 on the button with Kc Kh
Homeless ($700) calls $25 with Qc Jh
Rich, Hero, and Postle all call $25
The 2 limpers fold
Bizarrely played by multiple players (specifically DBL-R and Dave C), and we end up going 5-ways to the flop.
FLOP ($134): As Jd 10d
Action checks around
We all check to Dave C, the preflop 3-bettor. He checks behind, which means he’s unlikely to have top pair or better on this board texture; surely he’d bet AK or sets of Jacks or Tens – the kinds of hands he’d be 3-betting preflop. Because Dave C isn’t a creative 3-bettor (ie he doesn’t 3-bet bluff) this means that he almost always has a big pair that didn’t smash this flop – namely KK or QQ (and indeed, he does have KK).
TURN ($134): 3s
Homeless leads for $50
DBL-R folds
Hero raises to $165
Everyone – including Postle – folds back to Homeless, who calls $165
In a 5-way pot on this board, I’m almost always just done with my hand. However, when Homeless bets out, I see an opportunity – and I go for it.
He makes a small bet of $50 into $134, which tells me that he’s not confident that his hand is good. Homeless is a recreational player, and if he had a hand like a straight, a set, or 2-pair, he’d definitely be betting big here to “protect” his hand on this draw-heavy board, since that’s how most recreational players think.
So when he makes a small bet, I know he doesn’t have a big hand. More likely, he has a hand like a weak ace (something like A-5 suited) or, an ace with a diamond flush draw. A hand like AQ also makes sense, where he has top pair and a gutter-ball.
And I realize that this is a great spot to bluff this dude, since he doesn’t have a hand that he wants to go to the felt with. So I’m going to raise here on the turn, which should knock out everyone behind me since they’re likely weak (this is what happens – Postle folds A8 which is the best hand, and Dave C folds KK which is the best hand once Postle folds). And if someone behind me has been sandbagging and calls or raises, I’m done with the hand.
I do expect Homeless to call my turn raise a fair amount of the time (and he does here), but if the river is a brick I can bluff him all-in and I think he’s going to fold almost always.
RIVER ($464): 5s
Homeless checks
Hero goes all-in for Homeless’s $500
Homeless folds
The river is a blank, and I execute the final part of my bluff which gets through. Great hand for your boy – not only do I pull off a creative bluff against Homeless, I become one of the few men to ever get Mike Postle to fold the best hand!
How was this possible? Well, it turns out that Postle likely wasn’t cheating in this session – he’s not sitting in Seat 2 (his favorite seat, where the cameras have the toughest angle to pick up on what’s he’s doing below the table), and he doesn’t have his phone in his lap. Lucky me.
Overall in the three sessions I played on the Stones Live Stream with Postle, I played for 14 hours and 15 minutes. I won $883 in total while losing more than $1000 in pots I played vs Postle (obviously there were more than what I posted here). I feel fortunate to have played that many hands against a player who knew my cards and not have been cleaned out. I’m sure people will ask – so I’ll just tell you now that I haven’t yet made a decision on any legal options.
I do believe that the ramifications of this scandal will be long-lasting. Poker streams (including the very popular Live at The Bike) will have a lot more security and be more scrutinized by viewers. It’s unlikely phones will ever be allowed on any live streams anywhere again. And I’m guessing that people will be far more suspicious of cheating in the future, even in spots where it’s unwarranted. I also wouldn’t be surprised if other cheats are eventually caught – if one guy is cheating, we’d be foolish to assume that no one else is. The reality is that Postle was greedy, and very obvious once people started looking closely. If he had been more disciplined in how he ran this scam, he could have gotten away with it for much longer – maybe forever. Surely there could be someone out there cheating in a much smarter way than Postle did.
I’ve even heard people say that they’re hesitant to play live poker anymore, which I think is a little overboard. First off, it was the fact that the game was on a live stream was the key to Postle being able to see the cards (the stream was broadcast on a 30-minute delay but Postle was somehow able to see the cards in real time). At a regular table, this would never be possible. Sure there might be other ways to cheat by working in partners etc, but usually A) people are bad at that sort of thing, and B) it’s not nearly the death blow that having a super-user who knows the cards is.
And here’s the thing: This isn’t a poker issue – it’s a human nature issue. The reality is that wherever there’s money to be made, there will be some percentage of people who are going to try to game the system to get their hands on that money. We see it all the time in business, in the stock market, in loans and the housing market, in crypto, in poker … and in DFS. The best we can do is to always keep our eyes out for it, and remember that you can trust a person – but you can’t trust people.
(As always, all odds are accurate at the time of writing and may change throughout the week. The Reid Option focuses exclusively on the Main Slate.)
QUARTERBACK
We have a couple of explosive game environments this week and from those, several hot quarterback plays. The obvious HOU/KC tilt gives us Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, two players who are likely to be overly-pricey for cash game construction but have the upside to lead GPP-winning lineups. Mahomes is of particular interest to me, since it’s possible he sees slightly decreased ownership after throwing just one touchdown pass over the past two weeks, but with no accompanying price drop. Even so, Mahomes is a God amongst false idols; he’s crushed the 300-yard bonus in every game this season and this week is likely to get Tyreek Hill – his top big-play weapon – back in action, all while the Chiefs have again been blessed with the week’s highest implied team total at 30 points.
Because the two aforementioned QBs will be very popular, the public might gloss over a third strong QB option in the upper price tier: Lamar Jackson. L-Jax has been a bit cold of late, but a date with the Bengals is all one needs to get their mojo back; their craptastic defense is allowing the third-most yards per play (6.5) and has the league’s fifth-lowest adjusted sack rate at 5.1%. Game theory-wise, L-Jax makes for a slick GPP pivot if you’re paying up.
In the ATL/ARI game, Matt Ryan and Kyler Murray are also big-time plays, and Murray in particular feels like he’s on the verge of an eruption game. While Murray’s fantasy production has been merely decent thus far this season, he’s definitely due for some positive regression: His 2.0% touchdown rate is nearly 1/3rd of the league average. He’s also been running much more of late, averaging 7.3 rush attempts and 63 rush YPG over his past three contests, and last Sunday it was clear that the team was scheming him plays on the ground with several designed QB runs. It won’t be surprising to see that positive regression hit this week against a Falcons defense that could charitably be described as abominable; they’ve allowed the opposition to score on 51% of their drives – a figure worsted by only the Miami Dolphins – and their non-existent pass rush has produced a league-low 3.8% adjusted sack rate. I have the feeling that Kid Kyler could have his first elite fantasy game this week, and accordingly I’ll be overweight on him in GPPs.
If RB value doesn’t open up as the week progresses, paying down at the position in cash games may be the move. If so, reincarnated 70s porn star Gardner Minshew is a value across the industry, checking in at just $5000 on DraftKings and a nice $6900 on FanDuel. Despite rarely threatening for the 300-yard bonus, Minshew has been very efficient: His 7.8 yard per attempt is a top-10 figure in the league, and he’s only thrown one pick in five games. It doesn’t feel like there’s a lot of ceiling here, but there’s plenty of floor considering the price.
RUNNING BACK
This may be the first week that I eschew paying up for a stud in cash games, but on a main slate bereft of Christian McCaffrey, optimal cash game construction may lend itself to doing just that. There figures to be plenty of value in the mid-tier, starting with Leonard Fournette. Fat CMC’s price tag remains far too low considering his usage (especially on DK); he’s played 91.1% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps and has been given 90.6% of the team’s backfield opportunities – while his 23 total touches per game is the third-highest rate is the NFL.
Le’Veon Bell makes a similar usage case, although the Jets’ league-low 17.5-point implied team total makes him more of a bird flying backwards (i.e. interesting) than an Antonio Brown season-long prop bet under (i.e. a stone cold lock). However, it’s hard to ignore that Bell never comes off the field (94% snap rate) and that he ranks 2nd in the league in both RB touches per game (24.5) and RB targets per game (8.0). I think he’s a decent cash play on DK and a legit GPP option since he has huge upside should touchdown luck happen to fall his way.
I’m also keeping a close eye on Todd Gurley, who I considered a great play until his missed practice on Wednesday cast doubt over his availability for Sunday. Bizarrely, Gurley’s price on DraftKings has dropped $500 below its previous season low, despite Gurley having back-to-back multi-touchdown games where he also saw a total of 16 targets – all while playing on 82.5% of the team’s offensive snaps. And it’s not as though the Rams have a 27-point implied team total as 3.5-point home favorites (oh wait, it is). The only reasonable explanation for this is that the DK pricing guy has been puffing on something notorious – in which case I’d like some of that, along with some Gurley. Obviously, if Gurley were to miss the game, Malcolm Brown would become a lock in all formats – as would Chase Edmonds if David Johnson can’t hang on Sunday.
I usually shy away from Mark Ingram in DFS since he doesn’t provide much in the passing game, but this is probably a week where I’ll make an exception. The Ravens are 11-point home favorites against a Cincinnati defense that’s so awful not even the NRA would support them. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the NFL, a comically pathetic achievement considering they play in a league with the Dolphins, Redskins, Giants, and Cardinals. Ingram currently leads the league in both rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (13) and inside the 5-yard line (7), and he could easily be headed toward a multi-touchdown effort this weekend.
WIDE RECEIVER
I’m still trying to whittle down my WR pool for this week, and so far it’s been difficult. There’s a lot of talent at the top end, particularly with Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins, both of whom are playing in games with bulbous over/unders. You won’t find Julio’s name at the top of any of the airyards.com leaderboards, but it just has the feeling of an eruption spot against a defense that allows the opposition to score on 46.3% of their drives (3rd-highest). Hopkins has also been dormant for a good portion of the season, but he’s still 7th in the NFL in Weighted Opportunity Rating and with the Chiefs projected to score a gaggle of points, the Texans are likely to have to throw a lot to hang. That could mean big things for Nuk, and expecting his biggest output of the season would not be a fishy take.
I do think the one high-priced dude who could go under-owned in GPPs is Michael Thomas, despite his nuclear explosion last week. But this week he’s on the road in Jacksonville, Jalen Ramsey appears likely to play, and he’s significantly priced up while playing in a game with a lower over/under (44.5 points). However, MT still leads the universe in Weighted Opportunity Rating by a large margin, as well as receptions and receiving yards. If ownership projections come out and he’s down on the list, he’s a great pivot off of Julio and Nuk.
We’ll also be keeping a close eye on big play incarnate Tyreek Hill, who’s aiming to come back this week and is affordable across the industry after missing four games. Hill is likely to be a focal point of the Chiefs attack if he suits up, especially with the fraudulent Sammy Watkins looking iffy at best to play this weekend.
The high-priced tier isn’t the only spot where you’re going to find the snoochie boochies on this slate – the mid-tier has plenty of potent swag going on, and that swag starts with Tyler Boyd. Let’s first talk about this Baltimore defense, which ain’t quite your daddy’s Ravens D. Through five games, the Ravens have allowed the 2nd-most yards per play overall (6.7), including the 3rd-most yardage to wide receivers specifically (1,004). Step in Tyler Boyd, who’s tied for 6th in team target share (26%) and is tied for 3rd with Keenan Allen in total targets (53). Add that to Cinci’s situation as huge underdogs in this game and are thus likely to have to throw plenty, and Boyd is as big of a lock for double-digit targets as any wide receiver on the slate.
I’ve also become more and more enamored with D.J. Chark as the weeks have gone on, to the point that I’ve started singing “Deee Jayyyy Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo” every time he catches a deep pass, which to my wife’s dismay is quite often. And his great start to the season isn’t just touchdown-driven; his 38% team air yards share is 7th in the league and he’s facing a New Orleans defense that has allowed the 5th-most air yards of any defense. He’s cheap enough for cash but profiles better as a big-play GPP option. The same goes for Terry McLaurin, who checks in at just $6400 on FanDuel. He actually leads the NFL in team air yard share at 51%, and the Miami pass defense is weaker than Mike Postle’s self-defense. He might be a bit off the radar after missing some time, but he’s getting a ton of downfield opportunities and is in a great spot to convert them here.
When looking at some cheap punts, Jets receivers Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas are both in position to out-produce their prices with Sam Darnold back in action. Crowder was used like a dorm room bong in Week 1, garnering 17 targets from Darnold, and anything close to half of that this week would be well worth his $4k price tag on DraftKings. DT is quite a bit thinner, but he had 9 targets last week while playing 97.8% of the team’s snaps, per Eric McClung.
Lastly, I think this is the week I’m going to take some shots with Vikings receivers in GPPs; the term “funnel defense” has been over-used since 2016, but the Eagles have as close to a real one as we have in the game today. They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league (315) while giving up the 4th-most passing yards (1,356), and if they’re able to impose their will, they can force the Vikings into throwing the ball more than they want to. And while Adam Thielen’s gross volume hasn’t been great, he ranks 4th in the NFL in Weighted Opportunity Rating and is likely to smash if the Vikes have a bunch of pass attempts. On the flip side, Stefon Diggs has had a disappointing season so far but we all know he’s a talented cat who’s capable of big things if he’s given the chance. At a depressed price tag, it’s a bet I’m willing to make this week.
TIGHT END
Look, there’s always a case for many tight ends every week, especially in GPPs where touchdowns will often make the difference between a great play and a bad play. This week, Travis Kelce stands out as a guy who could be a big touchdown maker: The Chiefs have the highest implied team total of the week at 30 points (this correlates well with TE touchdown production), and he leads all NFL TEs in receiving yards (439), making it likely that he’ll benefit from some positive touchdown regression at some point. He’s also so much more expensive than any other tight end, which might serve to depress his ownership – just the kind of thing that should attract you to him.
Other dudes I’ll be looking at include Austin Hooper (flow-chart play against the Cardinals), who ranks 4th among all TEs in targets (42) and 7th in team target share (19%). Also, Gerald Everett has seen 19 targets over the past two weeks while playing 67.1% of the team’s offensive snaps, and could become even more of a focal target if Brandin Cooks ends up missing the game. With that kind of usage and a 27-point implied team total at his back, Everett can be used as a punt in both GPPs and cash games.
However, while I like all of those plays, there’s only one play I love this week, and it’s the man who leads all tight ends in Weighted Opportunity Rating after setting the all-time TE yardage record last year. This week … I’m sucked into Kittle with you:
Well I don’t know why I’d fade him tonight
I got the feelin’ that playing him’s right
I’m not scared in case I come off as square
And I’m wondering how I’ll get all the shares
Kelce too expensive, see
Zach Ertz, the same price
Here I am, sucked into Kittle with you
Yes I’m sucked into Kittle with you
And I’m wondering how it is I’ll get screwed
It’s so hard to keep the tilt off my face
Losing my roll yeah, I’m broker than Davis
Kelce too expensive, see
Zach Ertz, the same price
Here I am, sucked into Kittle with you
Well you started out just crushing
And I’m proud that you’re with Shanahan
Vs the Rams you will come ballin’
Slap you on the butt and say
TD’s
TD’s
Buying SF’s O with the ball
Cuz I can see it makes those playaction calls
It is cool that your ceiling can soar
‘Cause I don’t think that you have a low floor
Kelce too expensive, see
Zach Ertz, the same price
Here I am, sucked into Kittle with you
Here I am, sucked into Kittle with you
Well you started out just crushing
And I’m proud that you’re with Shanahan
Vs the Rams you will come ballin’
Slap you on the butt and say
TD’s
TD’s
Well I don’t know why I’d fade him tonight
I got the feelin’ that playing him’s right
I’m not scared in case I come off as square
And I’m wondering how I’ll get all the shares
Kelce too expensive, see
Zach Ertz, the same price
Here I am, sucked into Kittle with you
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Look, we know the Cowboys and Ravens are great plays – you don’t need me to bloviate about them. I’m sure you’d rather I spend my time writing up hand histories from a low-stakes poker game from months ago anyway. Right? No? Oh well, that’s your fault for coming here for daily fantasy advice anyway. So let’s move forward amicably.
I mean look, there aren’t that many great DST options this week, so let’s slog through ‘em, and just hope and pray come Sunday. I do think a lot of heads will be scared off by the Rams since the 49ers offense was a wildebeest on amphetamines the last time we saw them, but this week they’re down both of their starting tackles and are facing a Rams D that ranks 2nd in pressure rate (per Rich Hribar). I could also be talked into the Redskins, if only because they’re facing a Dolphins team that so inept they’re fit for a White House office position.
If we’re going cheap – which might end up being the move – I’m feeling like the Chiefs will be overlooked against a Texans O that nobody wants to mess with right now. But lemme tell you something obvious: Going into Arrowhead is a lot different than a home game vs the Falcons, and despite their explosive potential, the Texans are still allowing the league’s 5th-highest adjusted sack rate (9.8%) and the Chiefs are 5-point home favorites. Using them as a leverage play in GPPs against the game’s skill position players is just #sharp.
Finally, the social experiment that is the Jets defense at $1500 on DraftKings may be one that I’m willing to sign up for. It’s not that anything about this matchup is good, but DST point distribution can be very random and allocating as few resources into it is just a good idea in theory. Come Sunday, we’ll see if I have the stones to follow through.
Thanks for reading, everyone! Let’s go make some money in Week 6.