Three MLB Stacks to Target: Friday, August 30th
Stacking has become a common strategy used in tournaments on FanDuel. The concept is simple – roster multiple players from teams with the best MLB odds to score the most runs. This article will take a closer look at teams on FanDuel’s main slate with three of the highest implied run totals.
Colorado Rockies (7.9 implied run total)
Sometimes we get good parks to hit in – Coors – and sometimes we get bad pitchers to target. On Friday we get both, and I can’t remember a recent matchup as bad as Dario Agrazal and Antonio Senzatela. This game opened with a massive 14-run total, which immediately jumped to 14.5, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it crept up another half-run or run as we get closer to first pitch.
Specifically addressing Colorado’s matchup, Dario Agrazal is not good. Agrazal is simply incapable of missing bats with a slate worst 11.9% strikeout rate. Despite calling pitcher-friendly PNC Park his home, Agrazal has also struggled with the long ball, giving up 10 HRs in just 49 IP this season. Simplified, we have a pitcher that allows a ton of contact, gives up a ton of HRs and is pitching in Coors.
Rockies (and Pirates) hitters are going to be in high demand on this slate and are likely to be the highest owned stack of the night despite a relative lack of strong cheap pitching options. If you want to differentiate your lineup, look to get creative with your stacks – perhaps play Ian Desmond over the higher owned (and better play) Sam Hilliard – or to get a little weird at starting pitcher with some low owned options.
Pittsburgh Pirates (6.8 implied run total)
Opposite of Dario Agrazal is Antonio Senzatela who also happens to be a not very good pitcher. While not quite as bad, Senzatela’s 12.2% strikeout rate is also well below league average and the Rockies righty has an even worse K-BB% (1.6%!!).
The Pirates get a massive park shift with this game being played in Colorado as Coors is more favorable than PNC Park both in terms of power and extra-base hits. Pittsburgh has the hitters to take advantage of the elevation with Brian Reynolds (.204 ISO), Starling Marte (.194 ISO), Josh Bell (.244 ISO), Jose Osuna (.235 ISO) and also has the speed to take advantage of Coors’ big outfield.
Somewhat surprisingly, current ownership projections at RotoGrinders currently have Starling Marte (17%) as the only Pirates hitter projected to see double-digit ownership. Notably, Colin Moran (5%), Kevin Newman (5%), and Adam Frazier (4%) all have extremely low ownership projections and are a strong way to get low-owned exposure to the highest total of the night.
Minnesota Twins (6.9 implied run total)
Despite the ridiculous matchup in Coors, I may be more excited about the Twins squaring off against Edwin Jackson. To be fair, the Rockies are my “top stack of the night” in terms of raw projection, but the Twins are my “favorite stack of the night” once you factor in expected ownership.
I am fully expecting any team not named the Pittsburgh Pirates or Colorado Rockies to be relatively low-owned on Friday night, and that includes the Minnesota Twins in an unreal power matchup on the road against Edwin Jackson and the Detroit Tigers. Minnesota has been dealing with some injuries but at full strength, they rate as the top power stack of the night with seven hitters – Max Kepler (.235 ISO), Nelson Cruz (.260 ISO), Eddie Rosario (.225 ISO), Miguel Sano (.253 ISO), C.J. Cron (.209 ISO), Jason Castro (.213 ISO), and Jake Cave (.205 ISO) – owning ISO’s of .205 or higher against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Edwin Jackson has had more success with the Detroit Tigers than he did with the Blue Jays earlier this season but has still given up five HRs in his four starts which put his season totals at 17 HRs in 49.2 IP.
If you’re looking to pivot off Coors chalk, the Twins are easily my favorite team to target. While they may not project quite as well from a ‘runs scored’ perspective they trump both the Rockies and Pirates in terms of HR projections which arguably makes them the highest upside stack of the night.