Three MLB Stacks to Target: Friday, June 21st
Stacking has become a common strategy used in tournaments on FanDuel. The concept is simple – roster multiple players from teams with the best MLB odds to score the most runs.
This article will take a closer look at the three teams on FanDuel’s main slate with the highest implied run totals.
Texas Rangers (6.3 implied run total)
Aside from the Rangers having the highest implied run total of the slate (6.3) they are likely to be the highest owned stack of the night simply because their bats are affordable. The Rangers matchup is a favorable one as they’ll host Reynaldo Lopez at hitter-friendly GlobeLife Park in Arlington. An already hitting friendly environment is expected to be even more giving on Friday night as temps are expected to be in the mid-90s and the dewpoint is expected to sit in the low 70’s. Via Kevin Roth’s Weather Edge tool on RotoGrinders, similar conditions have resulted in total runs increasing by 13.4% over a 107 game sample.
Despite a handful of strong performances this season, Lopez has been terrible for the White Sox owning a 5.10 SIERA and already giving up 19 HRs over 81.1 innings pitched. For his career, Lopez has really struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .326 wOBA and owning a 5.80 xFIP, 17.5 K%, and 11.1 BB%. The Rangers projected lineup has seven left-handed hitters in it, Rougned Odor being the only lefty hitter without a wOBA north of .340 against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Additionally, Shin-soo Choo, Danny Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Ronald Guzman have shown a ton of power with each player posting ISO’s of .215 or higher against RHP the last two seasons.
Minnesota Twins (6.0 implied run total)
When stacking we’re looking for power and boy do the Minnesota Twins have a ton of it. Eight of nine hitters in the Twins projected lineup have posted ISO’s of .201 or higher against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons with Jake Cave being the only hitter lower (.188). To be fair, Luis Arraez has a sample of a measly 24 plate appearances and doesn’t project for much power at all, but the point remains that Minnesota has a lot of power scattered throughout their lineup – especially Max Kepler (.301), Jason Castro (.297), Eddie Rosario (.260), Jorge Polanco (.250), Nelson Cruz (.241), and Miguel Sano (.241).
Minnesota will look to tee off against Jakob Junis who has some HR tendencies in his own right with a career 15.3% HR-to-flyball rate and a 17.2% HR-to-flyball rate this season. Junis has been more giving to left-handed hitters but still allows plenty of power to right-handed hitters, with righties posting a .194 ISO against Junis over the last two seasons. Perhaps the biggest knock against a Twins stack is that they’re playing at pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium but conditions are expected to be favorable for hitters on Friday night. Friday’s forecast calls for the “hitters trifecta” with temps in the high 80’s, the dewpoint in the high 70’s, and double-digit winds blowing out. According to WeatherEdge, in 56 games with similar conditions HRs have increased by 7.2% and total runs by 14.1%.
Boston Red Sox (5.6 implied run total)
The Boston Red Sox have one of the most potent offenses in baseball and draw a favorable home matchup against Trent Thorton and the Blue Jays bullpen on Friday night. Thornton has been largely mediocre for Toronto this season but has especially struggled against left-handed hitters giving up a .365 wOBA and .242 ISO. Thornton’s wide platoon splits are great news for Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Sandy Leon but Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez remain Boston’s top bats to target. Both Mookie and J.D. own wOBA’s north of .410 and ISO’s north of .245 against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons which make them two of the top overall hitters to target nightly.