Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, June 17th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals
Opposing pitcher: Tommy Milone
FanDuel price tag: $3,000
FanDuel position: OF
With Justin Upton expected back, and the Angels taking on Edwin Jackson and a bad Toronto bullpen, a lot of outfield spots are going to be taken up by Angels players. But let’s not overlook Soler’s power at a great $3,000 price tag.
Opposing pitcher Tommy Milone has made great strides with his strikeouts in 2019, upping his K% to 25% after a 19.5% in 2018 and 17.2% in 2017. That being said, the strikeouts this season have come way more against lefties (31.7%) than righties (20.6%), and he gives up a TON of hard hit flyballs to those righties (51% flyballs and 38% hard contact, to be exact.
So while there is some strike out risk here thanks to Soler’s own free swinging ways, there is also a great spot for him to take Milone deep. Since the start of 2018, Soler has posted a .372 wOBA and .250 ISO against LHP thanks to almost 47% hard contact. And the best part is, the ownership on Soler will be massively deflated thanks to his positional eligibility.
2) Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Opposing pitcher: Luis Castillo
FanDuel price tag: $4,400
FanDuel position: SS
This is one of those calls that isn’t sneaky by its definition but is sneaky relative to the slate. Opposing pitcher Luis Castillo is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, what with his 29.2% K% and absurd 61.4% GB% against righties this season.
So if we are looking for a hitter to combat high strikeouts and high groundballs, we obviously want a low strikeout batter who leans flyballs. Bregman is directly in that mold, as he only has a 10.4% K% this season against RHP while hitting 40.5% flyballs and 23% line drives. That has led to a .416 wOBA and .273 ISO in the split this season in 231 plate appearances.
On top of that, this is also a pretty decent park upgrade for Bregman heading into Great American Ball Park. The RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool shows how great of a park this is for right-handed home runs. So while the masses will probably play Francisco Lindor at $4,100 in Arlington, this is a great time to swallow the extra $300 as a way to be a little different with Bregman against a great pitcher.
3) Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
Opposing pitcher: Jhoulys Chacin
FanDuel price tag: $3,200
FanDuel position: OF
I hate to call a guy who just hit FIVE home runs over the weekend sneaky, but the Padres aren’t playing in Coors Field anymore. Their home ballpark (Petco Park) actually has the reputation for being a massive pitchers park. And while it certainly is way more of a pitchers park than a hitters park, it isn’t nearly as bad as most think for right-handed power.
Renfroe certainly has that, as PlateIQ reflects a .331 ISO against RHP this season thanks to a silly 50.5% hard contact and 43.7% flyballs. Opposing pitcher Jhoulys Chacin has completely lost his groundball ability to righties this season. His groundball rate was up at 45.2% in the split in 2018, but it currently only sits at 29.8% this year. The one thing he can do still is strike out righties at a decent clip (22.2%), so there is strikeout risk here just like I mentioned up above with Soler.
But if Renfroe is able to put the ball in play, hard hit flyballs are almost a certainty. And again, there are only so many outfielders one can play on FD (four thanks to that Util spot!), so ownership here is going to be even lower than on Soler. The majority of DFS players are sharp enough nowadays to see that Renfroe played in Coors Field over the weekend, so I don’t anticipate any recency bias spiking his ownership tonight unnecessarily.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy