Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, June 24th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Opposing pitcher: Jon Lester
FanDuel price tag: $4,500
FanDuel position: C/1B
We have ourselves a Wrigley Wind Game tonight (and by that I mean, wind is blowing straight out to center at 15+ MPH). But let me ask you this: who are more DFS owners going to play, Anthony Rizzo at $3,900 with the platoon edge against Julio Teheran or Freddie Freeman at $4,500 in a L/L against Jon Lester?
I think the answer to that question will overwhelmingly be Rizzo. And yes, I realize we can roster two first-basemen/catchers on FanDuel, but it’s not like we are strapped for appealing options. We have Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez facing Aaron Sanchez, Lucas Duda at almost the bare minimum with the platoon edge against a low strikeout pitcher in Adam Plutko, and J.T. Realmuto ($2,900) and Willson Contreras ($3,000) a few other completely viable options at this position.
To make a long story short, Freeman is not going to see nearly the ownership he should considering the hitting conditions in Wrigley tonight. As you can see in our PlateIQ tool, he has posted a .241 ISO in 330 plate appearances against LHP since the start of 2018. And Lester has been giving up plenty of hard contact to lefties this season, to the tune of 39.3%.
When searching for home runs tonight, DO NOT overlook Freeman just because of a high price tag and L/L matchup.
2) Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Opposing pitcher: Steven Matz
FanDuel price tag: $4,100
FanDuel position: C/1B
I didn’t put Hoskins up above in the list of great C/1B options because I wanted to discuss him on his own, but he is another way to be different from what will be overwhelming Anthony Rizzo chalk at this position. Hoskin’s price tag is smack dab in the middle of Rizzo and Freeman, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to have him be even lower owned than Freeman.
Opposing pitcher Steven Matz gets above average strikeouts against righties (24.2% dating back to the start of last season), as well average groundballs (45.9%). So what we are looking for to counteract those skills are flyball hitters that also make good contact.
Enter Rhys. In 79 plate appearances against LHP this season, he has posted a .271 ISO thanks to 47.7% flyballs and 47.7% hard contact. On top of that, he has been able to keep his strikeout rate at 19%.
At a loaded C/1B position for only a seven-game slate, I shouldn’t have to tell you that a guy like Rhys Hoskins has as much upside as anyone on the slate. And while the wind won’t be as strong (or impactful) as in Wrigley, we still have it blowing out to center according to our RG Weather page.
3) Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays
Opposing pitcher: CC Sabathia
FanDuel price tag: $3,400
FanDuel position: OF
Grichuk has finally see the price tag increase to more appropriate levels, which means ownership is going to decrease on him. That will be exacerbated by all of the other appealing outfield options tonight (I feel confident saying that Kyle Schwarber at $3,100 is going be the highest owned player on the slate).
One Grichuk’s main problems at the plate is too many strikeouts, but that is a risk we are willing to take when searching for home runs. So it stands to reason that we would like him more against low strikeout pitchers, and that is what Sabathia has been lately. Since the start of 2018, he has only been able to strike out 19.6% of righties.
In that same timeframe and split, Grichuk has posted a .218 ISO on 41.6% flyballs, 22.1% line drives, and 37.7% hard contact. Yankee Stadium is obviously better for home runs for lefties thanks to that short porch in right field. But as you can see from our Ballpark Factors, it is still well above average for right-handed batters as well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if CC serves one up a tater to Grichuk tonight.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy