Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 9th
Welcome to Tuesday, Grinders. Today’s breakdown will focus on some outside the box plays with value and big game potential for the big qualifiers that are running. I am not too concerned about any rain, except maybe at Wrigley, but it is still too early to tell. We are coming to the end of the qualifying period, so get out there and win a seat.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 | 0.33 | 0.376 | 0.98 | Gibson – R | 7.94 | 0.267 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.446 | 0.316 | 0.359 | 0.97 | Webster – R | 7.88 | 0.309 |
| Brian McCann | 1.233 | 0.305 | 0.385 | 0.97 | Alvarez – R | 5.4 | 0.325 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.359 | 0.333 | 0.347 | 1.04 | Peralta – R | 5.27 | 0.267 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.539 | 0.319 | 0.327 | 1.01 | Nolasco – R | 3.85 | 0.318 |
| Andre Ethier | 1.036 | 0.306 | 0.318 | 1.01 | Kennedy – R | 5.16 | 0.287 |
| Michael Brantley | 1.138 | 0.301 | 0.321 | 1.03 | Johnson – R | 4.89 | 0.301 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.911 | 0.291 | 0.376 | 1.02 | Shields – R | 3.23 | 0.316 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 0.617 | 0.385 | 0.35 | 1.08 | Quintana – R | 3.69 | 0.361 |
| Brandon Moss | 0.611 | 0.29 | 0.334 | 0.89 | Cole – R | 3.94 | 0.243 |
- It is pretty incredible how cheap Evan Longoria is on many different sites right now. The great part about Longoria is that you know he is going to hit the ball and bat in the middle of a lineup that can score runs. I do not know much about Kyle Gibson, but I do know he has not looked good in his brief appearances this year, so the Rays could have a nice day.
- Webster was terrible in his first few starts, but pitched better in his last start. I am still not convinced he is any good as that start came against a slumping Padres team. Here we have the red hot Kyle Seager and the Mariners lineup which just got finished putting up an 11 spot on Lester and the pen last night. Seager crushes right handed pitching and is on an absolute tear right now, homering 3 times in this 8 game hitting streak and scoring a run in every game.
- Brian McCann really put up a stinker last night against Slowey, but the fact is he has still been crazy good over the last 2 weeks. One game is not going to deter me from using him and I like the matchup he has against the right handed Alvarez tonight who he got 2 hits off of last time they played on the 4th.
- Jay Bruce is becoming a typical GPP play, and if you are going for one of the qualifiers tonight he could be a sneaky outfield play. He always has a chance at a double dong night and as he has been super cold, his salary has dropped a bit. Peralta has had a tough time keeping left handersi n the park, surrendering 7 of his 10 homers allowed against them and giving up an .829 OPS, so if Bruce was going to get it going, this is a good shot.
- Didi Gregorius could be another out of the box GPP play. He gets to face a right hander who he has done all of his damage off of this year, and better yet it is Nolasco who has just switched teams, and is now pitching in Chase for the Dodgers. Even if you do not believe in small sample BVP, Didi’s 5 for 7 mark against Nolasco cannot hurt. Gregorius is also eligible at the shortstop position which is very weak so finding value here is paramount. He is near minimum salary everywhere, and you do not even need him to homer to make his value.
- When Andre Ethier starts heating up, he becomes very hard to stop, and it is good to roll with him until he cools off. With Matt Kemp on the DL (again), Ethier’s job in LA is secure for at least a couple of weeks now, and he can continue his hitting streak. Ethier has the best marks of any Dodger against Kennedy going 8 for 25 with 2 homers, and gets to hit in hitter friendly Chase Field again where he posted 3 hits last night. He is still a bargain, so continue to roll with him.
- I am really not sure what to believe about Josh Johnson at this point, but today’s game cannot be too good for him. He has a 9.26 ERA on the road this year, and has been completely owned away from the Rogers Centre. He is struggling to get everyone out giving up a .815 total OPS and is giving up the long ball at a huge rate. Michael Brantley is killing right handed pitching, and is a giant risk/reward option tonight for a GPP play. In 3 of the last 5 games, he has a 4 hit game, a 2 homer game, and a 2 hit 2 walk game.
- It is great to have large sample sizes like we have with Shields against the Yankees lineup. One BVP I am believing in is Robinson Cano against Shields. He is 31-79 with 4 homers, which is amounting to a .392 avearge and 1.111 OPS. If you want a safe pick who can abuse the short porch in right, go with Robbie.
- Jhonny Peralta salary has dropped just enough to make him a great bargain again as he starts his hitting ways back up. He is hitting .361 against left handed pitching on the year, and although Quintana has been solid, the Tigers love hitting at Comerica Park, especially Peralta where he has a .935 OPS. The rain scared me off the Tigers yesterday, but it looks like liftoff tonight.
- To win a GPP you need to hit on that one player who no one will have that has a monster game. I am looking at Brandon Moss here, for no other reason than he is really cheap and gives you 2 homer potential. Moss feasts on right handers, and even though he is in PNC, Cole is still pretty green and could hang a couple for Moss to rip.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro De Aza | 0.374 | 0.313 | 0.31 | 0.97 | Verlander – R | 3.54 | 0.243 |
| Eric Hosmer | 1.027 | 0.309 | 0.333 | 1.02 | Sabathia – L | 4.06 | 0.337 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.431 | 0.32 | 0.295 | 0.88 | Wainwright – R | 2.36 | 0.279 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.16 | 0.287 | 0.329 | 0.92 | Gee – R | 4.45 | 0.248 |
| Mark Reynolds | 0.279 | 0.285 | 0.311 | 0.99 | Johnson – R | 4.89 | 0.217 |
| Zack Cozart | 0.19 | 0.257 | 0.273 | 1.07 | Peralta – R | 5.27 | 0.238 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.438 | 0.277 | 0.274 | 1.08 | Verlander – R | 3.54 | 0.213 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.581 | 0.278 | 0.262 | 0.99 | Blanton – R | 5.14 | 0.258 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1.036 | 0.272 | 0.302 | 1.07 | Wood – L | 2.69 | 0.159 |
| David Freese | 0.499 | 0.331 | 0.323 | 0.88 | Norris – R | 3.22 | 0.282 |
- Here are the guys who I think do not have the ability to have that breakout game, and Alejandro De Aza is here on this list. He has hit most of his homers off right handed pitching, but his OPS is still lower as his average has dipped below .250 against the right handers. He is also cold as ice right now only posting a .374 OPS in his last 7 days.
- Eric Hosmer has finally come around and is hitting like people thought he would, however he gets to go up against Sabathia today, and I am not a big fan of the matchup. Sabathia has not been good, but his career numbers indicate that he pitches well at home and hurts left handed pitching. Hosmer’s salary has risen drastically and I am not a big fan of his today.
- If you were considering Jose Altuve today, just stop and go somewhere else. He is ice cold and is facing Wainwright who is one of the top pitchers in the game. Wainright goes to the 7th or 8th inning nearly every game, and can completely shut down a team. The Astros bats will not be owned tonight, and should not be owned tonight.
- Hunter Pence got his first hit in a very long time last night, in fact it had been 6 days without a hit. Pence is just terrible right now, going along with his Giants buddies who cannot hit. Dillon Gee has been surprisingly effective for a while now, and has held Pence to 0 hits in 12 at bats in their career, so this looks like a really bad time to use Pence.
- When Mark Reynolds is not hitting home runs, he is completely useless. He has only 1 home run since June 16th, and has struck out 28 times since then. Although Josh Johnson is giving up homers, I would rather take Johnson to strike out Reynolds 5 times in a row than for Reynolds to hit a homer, that is how bad Reynolds is seeing the ball.
- Zack Cozart is also completely lost at the plate. He hits high in the order sometimes, but has been horrible in the last 7 days. When he does make contact, it is just a single as well. Wily Peralta was good last time out and has put together a couple of solid starts in his last 3, so I am wary of the Reds right handers tonight.
- This White Sox lineup is just completely embarrassing at this point, and Dayan Viciedo is not helping things much. He used to rake against left handers, but if he keeps this season up he is going to be raking leaves for old ladies in the neighborhood pretty soon. Today is not a good opportunity for him to turn it around as he is facing Verlander who he is 0 for 9 off of in his career.
- This one should be fun. On one hand, you have Blanton who cannot stop giving up homers, and on the other hand, you have Starlin Castro who cannot hit them anymore. I am going to site with Blanton on this one as Castro has hit 1 home run since April, and is currently hitting at a .093 ISO which is terrible. Castro has just been garbage this year and I see no light at the end of the tunnel even against Blanton.
- Josh Hamilton has a nice hitting streak going! Hamilton is making a decent play nowadays against right handers, but against left handers he is still the putrid hitter like usual this year. I really hate him today against Wood who has only given up 1 homer to a lefty all season and is holding them to a .388 OPS. Hamilton is hitting almost as bad with a .159 average and a .415 OPS so the numbers are not there.
- Some people might be high on the Cardinals lineup tonight, but I am not. Bud Norris has actually been a solid pitcher, going deep into games and holding the other teams to 4 or less in 9 straight starts. Norris has not allowed a home run to a right hander this year and is only allowing a .584 OPS against them, and most of the Cardinals power bats are righties. Freese is really struggling recently, and only has a 4 for 15 mark against Norris in their career so think twice before plugging those Cardinal bats in.