Umpire Analysis: An Introduction to "PFR"
Hello Grinders, welcome to your one stop shop for umpire data for today! I’ve spent the past few weeks really digging into umpire data, looking at what is important, and have created an algorithm to easily spot umpires that can make a difference for you tonight.
Let’s talk about how I use umpire data for a second, as it can help guide you on tough decisions if you are stuck between a few pitchers or hitters. If I am stuck between two or three different pitchers on the night and one has a bad pitcher’s umpire, while the other has a good one, that certainly sounds like something that can help break a tie.
If you are trying to decide between a few different stacks, and you notice one team has a pitcher’s umpire behind the mound and the other has a hitter’s umpire, that also sounds pretty good as even when the starting pitcher leaves the game, the umpire is there all game to keep helping or hurting you.
What you will see referenced here today is a Pitcher Friendliness Rating or “PFR” that considers a variety of factors over the past two seasons to create an easy-to-read number for you to tell if the umpire if pitcher or hitter friendly, or if he is someone that is neutral. There are typically 30-35 umpires that deserve consideration when making lineups, and maybe 10-15 that can really alter your thinking if they are behind the plate. The higher the PFR, the better he is for a pitcher. PFR is a 0-100 scale to make it easily understandable.
So, let’s start looking at some umpires for tonight that can make a difference one way or the other for you!
Notable Pitcher Umpires
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Jake Odorizzi vs. Francisco Liriano
Umpire: Ron Kulpa – PFR 86.2
Analysis: Kulpa had a PFR of 84 last season and is sitting at 65.5 this year, providing a solid and consistent pitcher’s umpire for us. What really helps us out tonight is his low BB/9 each of the past two seasons, which could theoretically help Liriano avoid a walk or two.
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
Brian Johnson vs. Jeremy Hellickson
Umpire: Jim Reynolds – PFR 79.3
Analysis – Reynolds had a PFR Score of 73 last year and has a PFR of 63 this year, and he ranks 19th in PFR over the past two seasons. He has a 63.9% Strike rate this season, which ranks in the 72nd percentile in terms of pitcher friendliness. He has a below league average BB/9 this year while being slightly above league average last year, but he also had a top 75th percentile strike rate and K/9 last year.
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Sam Gaviglio vs. Ervin Santana
Umpire: Greg Gibson – PFR 68.9
Analysis: Gibson is right on the fringe of being a slight pitcher’s umpire, and is really boosted by his 87.3 PFR so far this season. He has an above average strike rate and K/9 this year while having a bottom 12% BB/9 while being about a neutral umpire last year.
Neutral Umpires
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: PFR – 64.3
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: PFR – 50.5
New York Yankees at L.A. Angels: PFR – 41.3
One quick note on the umpire in this game Gerry Davis, as he was an extreme hitter’s umpire last year while having the 15th highest PFR this year. Davis has a career lean of being a very slight hitter’s umpire, but the drastic splits between this year and last are notable with this year having him very favorable to pitchers.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers: PFR – 37.9
Notable Hitter Umpires
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Indians
Brandon McCarthy vs. Corey Kluber
Umpire: James Hoye – PFR 4.5
Analysis: Hoye had a PFR of 5.6 last year year and is sitting at 19.5 this season, combining to give him the fifth lowest PFR of any umpire over the past two seasons. He has the third highest BB/9 of any umpire this season and had the highest BB/9 of any umpire last year while also having the second lowest strike rate of any umpire in 2016 as well. The extreme ends of PFR are the most notable umpires, and while pitching is not ideal tonight, Hoye is likely to do Kluber no favors. I’ll also add in that Hoye has umpired two games for Kluber, resulting in 12 K’s and 5 BB’s in 12 IP.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Andrew Cashner vs. Francis Martes
Umpire: Manny Gonzalez – PFR 5.7
Analysis: Manny is one of the extreme hitter’s umpires you would want to account for, as he had the third lowest PFR last year and is also below league average this season. He has the second lowest K/9 of any umpire this season and had the fourth lowest strike rate of any umpire last year and a 75th percentile BB/9 last year as well. Fire up those Astros stacks tonight!
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Dylan Bundy vs. Miguel Gonzalez
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott – PFR 31
Analysis: Wolcott is right on the border of mentioning as a hitter’s umpire, but his well below league average strike rate this season and below league average K/9 each of the past two years are what is pushing him into an umpire worth noting.
Unknown Umpires
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets