What We Learned in the First Half of the NBA DFS Season
Hello Grinders. We’ve made it to NBA All-Star Weekend. For some of you, this is a time to refresh from the daily grind. Perhaps this is the first time you’ve emerged from your basement in months and are finally seeing sunlight for the first time since October. For others of you, this may be the most time you’ve ever spent with your significant other or your children and you forgot how to interact with them. Luckily for all you hardcore DFSers, there are NBA All-Star slates as well as NHL, NASCAR and Golf to dabble in to get your DFS fix in.
This break is also a great time to take a breath and reflect on what we’ve learned from the first half of the NBA season. With that, below are 10 of my favorite takeaways that I’ve learned at this mid-point.
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1. The Cleveland Cavaliers are really bad. Or really good. Or nobody really knows.
On paper, the Cavaliers are in nice shape with a 34-22 record, good for third in the Eastern Conference standings. Not too shabby considering this was a team that started 5-7 and looked awful in the first month of the season. While the record is good, the defense has not been good. The Cavaliers are allowing 110.0 points per game, 4th most in the NBA. They also rank in the bottom third of the league for every position in DvP, making them prime targets for DFS purposes.
But right before the trade deadline, they overhauled their entire team. Per Statmuse’s tweet here, Isaiah Thomas had the worst defensive rating by any player in the last 25 years and was arguably a clubhouse distraction. He was shipped out. Then one by one, Channing Frye, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder and Iman Shumpert found their way out. In came Larry Nance, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, George Hill and more importantly, a sense that the Cavaliers were once again contenders. They rode a four-game winning streak into the All-Star Break and we all got a feeling that this team suddenly got its swagger back. So are they really good now and Eastern Conference favorites, or are they still poor defensively and will fail to the defensive juggernaut known as the Boston Celtics come playoff time? Time will tell.
2. James Harden Can Co-Exist With Chris Paul.
Remember all that silly talk earlier this season that James Harden wouldn’t be able to co-exist with Chris Paul? Well, I think Harden has put to rest those false claims. While Harden isn’t posting triple-doubles on a nightly basis anymore as his rebounding rates have dropped (his 5.1 rebounds per game are his lowest total since the 2013-14 season), Harden still leads the NBA in points per game (31.3), is second in the NBA in assists per game (9.0) and ninth in steals per game (1.8). Heading into the All-Star Break, Harden averaged 62.6 DraftKings points in his last two games, both of which were games that saw Chris Paul play at least 31 minutes. So yes, he’s still good and still fantasy relevant.
3. And Remember That Russell Westbrook Guy? He’s Still Good But Still Human.
Despite the additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, Westbrook is still posting gaudy numbers worthy of our consideration for every slate. He’s eighth in the NBA in points per game (25.4), leads the NBA in assists per game (10.4) and is fifth in steals per game (1.9). Yes, his usage rate is down from a crazy 40.8% to 33.9% this season, but he’s still third in the NBA in that category and leads the league with 17 triple-doubles. LeBron is the next closest player with a distant 10 triple-doubles. But despite his talent, we got a reminder that he’s still human when he surprisingly sat out two games this month with an injury. I didn’t think that was possible given his Adamantium skeleton, but I was wrong.
4. Give A Man Minutes And He Will Turn Them Into Fantasy Gold.
I can’t begin to tell you how fascinating an NBA slate becomes when one or two players get ruled out, and then some random chalk player explodes. We all know that minutes are key in DFS, but we’ve been regularly reminded of this mantra all season. Just to name a few, we’ve seen amazing performances recently by Terry Rozier, Joffrey Lauvergne, T.J. McConnell, Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson (ah, the ol’ Stanley Johnson chalk night, I remember that night fondly). Heck, we just had half the Atlanta Hawks starters get ruled out making Tyler Dorsey fantasy relevant. I hate playing the chalk sometimes, but it’s hard to ignore that the mantra still rings true, and will continue to ring true as we head into this final stretch of the season.
5. We Can’t Trust The Sacramento Kings, Can We?
On most nights when the Kings play a home game and are the late night hammer, I almost have to cross them off my list of targets because I just have no idea what’s going to happen with that team. Is Zach Randolph playing or not? Why is Vince Carter starting again? Those are questions I have to keep asking myself, and I honestly don’t want to ask myself those questions. If I lose a slate because Zach Randolph went off, I think I can live with that. The Kings have become the most frustrating team in DFS this season in my opinion because we have no idea who is going to rest and how that will impact rotations or usage. I can’t decide whether the Kings or the Scott Skiles-led Orlando Magic frustrate me more. I guess it’s a tie.
6. This Is The Deepest Rookie Class We’ve Seen In A While.
I can’t being to tell you how impressed I’ve been with this year’s rookie class. I did not expect so many to be DFS relevant at this point, but on any given night, we’ll find ourselves gravitating towards players like Dennis Smith Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Ben Simmons, Kyle Kuzma, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox or Lonzo Ball (when he’s not busy getting hurt or having babies). Even players like Josh Jackson, Bam Adebayo and Josh Hart have started to shine recently. I haven’t even mentioned #1 pick Markelle Fultz, who I hope will one day join this list when he’s ready. This draft in retrospect was incredibly deep and talented.
7. And How About Those Sophomores?
I probably wrote off several players from last year’s draft too soon, as many are proving me wrong in this 2017-18 season. I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect Jamal Murray to be this good so fast, but once Mike Malone committed to him as the team’s starting point guard instead of yo-yo’ing his playing time with Emmanuel Mudiay, something clicked for him. I also owe Domantas Sabonis an apology. Last year he had a 15.8% usage rate on the Oklahoma City Thunder and felt like a draft bust. There were times he would just stand in the corner waiting for Westbrook to pass him the ball so he could shoot three-pointers. This season, his usage rate is up to 22%, good for second on the Indiana Pacers, and he’s become a lock-and-load play when Myles Turner is out. I’ll be curious to see how guys like Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Kris Dunn continue to improve over time.
8. The Games Continue To Develop, And We Continue To Have Fun.
Hats off to the DFS sites for continuing to innovate. We’ve seen the introduction of the Pick’Em format, the one-game format, and even Euroleague Basketball as DraftKings continues to expand internationally. We’ve seen some sites push their main slate lock to a later time to allow us to gather more information and lineup news. DRAFT and Yahoo continue to promote the late swap option for those of us fearful of stadium roof leaks (darn you, Smoothie King!). I’m looking forward to seeing how the sites continue to evolve.
9. Matchups Matter, So Keep Attacking Them.
By now, we’ve seen some teams are just awful at guarding certain positions. The Nets, Pacers, and Hawks are bottom-three teams against centers, and it’s become a habit of mine to just play centers against them regardless of the matchup. Similarly, the Suns are poor defensively across the board and continue to run at a quick pace, making them fantasy friendly every night.
Early in the season, it’s easier to be contrarian against Vegas as we’re working off old data from last season and making assumptions about new players, coaching tendencies, etc. That’s harder to do now that we’re nearly 70% of the way into the 2017-18 season. Lucky for us, variance will also continue to be a part of sports, meaning despite the wealth of data at our fingertips, there will always be surprises ahead for the remaining 30% of NBA games.
10. People Can Change For The Better. And By People, I Mean Andre Drummond.
Remember when Andre Drummond couldn’t even make 50% of his free throws consistently? After five straight seasons of being a 42% or lower free throw shooter, Drummond is now up to 62.5% for this season. It may seem like a small thing, but his ability to go from ~40% to 62.5% gives Drummond a few extra fantasy points from those makes, and it allows him to stay on the court instead of having to run and hide from his opponents when they begin to Hack-A-Drummond. Drummond is having his finest year yet, averaging 15.1 points and a league-best 15.7 rebounds per game. Let’s give him credit, he has improved and changed for the better. It may seem silly to think of Drummond as a $10K player, but honestly, he’s now worthy of being a $10K player.
Thanks for reading, and I hope you have a good All-Star Break. Feel free to also leave me a comment below on your takeaways from the first have of the season.