DFS Alerts
Hornets rule out LaMelo Ball for final preseason game and he will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of his ankle sprain.
Hornets rule out LaMelo Ball for final preseason game and he will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of his ankle sprain.
As reported by: Charlotte Hornets PR
Sites Conflict Where Value Bats Can Be Found Today
Players paying up for Cole and/or Verlander today are going to need value bats, but projections for either site are in disagreement upon which lineups that value can be found. FanDuel players may be happy (or frustrated) to know that the top projected value bats are some of the same top projected overall bats in the Dodger lineup. Max Muncy (110 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this season) and Will Smith (119 wRC+, .201 ISO) are both top 10 projected overall bats and top three projected FanDuel values within $200 of $3K. While the top half of the Dodger lineup offers top overall bats, the bottom half offers top 10 projected values in Justin Turner (129 wRC+, .178 ISO), Chris Taylor (101 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (92 wRC+, .203 ISO), all costing less than $3K. Taylor ($3.1K) is the only Dodger bat projecting among the top 10 values on DraftKings. The Dodgers punished Mike Clevinger this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF) and batters from either side of the plate were between a .306 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year.
Costing the minimum, Robbie Grossman (157 wRC+, .123 ISO) is the second best projected FanDuel value and even costing $3.8K, Ronald Acuna (102 wRC+, .131 ISO) also projects as a top 10 FD value. Grossman is also the only Brave to project as a top 10 DraftKings value ($2.6K). It is the most hitter friendly environment on the board in Atlanta, while RHBs had a .332 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against Ranger Suarez this year.
The New York Yankees also feature multiple top 10 projected FanDuel values within $100 of $3K in Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (95 wRC+, .145 ISO) against Cal Qauntrill (RHBs .314 wOBA, .318 xwOBA). Harrison Bader (90 wRC+, .117 ISO) is the only top 10 projected Yankee value on DraftKings at $2.8K.
Three different teams feature multiple top projected DraftKings values, starting with a min-priced Matt Vierling (110 wRC+, .131 ISO) as the top projected DK value and Edmundo Sosa (101 wRC+, .207 ISO) the third best projected DK value (same price). RHBs had just a .261 wOBA and .272 xwOBA against Max Fried this year, but as noted above, this is the best hitting environment on the board today.
Costing $2.5K on DraftKings, Carlos Santana (89 wRC+, .188 ISO) is the second best projected DraftKings value, while Jarred Kelenic (69 wRC+, .211 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 as well. LHBs had just a .201 wOBA and .235 xwOBA against Justin Verlander this year, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who has been prone to the occasional home run in the past.
The Houston projected lineup features a trio of top 10 projected FanDuel values against Logan Gilbert’s reverse split (RHBs .334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). Yuli Gurriel (74 wRC+, .091 ISO), Trey Mancini (111 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Chas McCormick (88 wRC+, .137 ISO) all cost less than $3K.
Top Offense on the Board Has Man-Handled Today's Opposing Pitcher
The Dodgers top the board at 4.57 implied runs on an either team divisional round board and even that may be a little light for the way they’ve man-handled Mike Clevinger this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF). The Braves (4.41) aren’t far behind with the Yankees (4.15) the only other team exceeding a four run team total. Five of the top 10 bats on the board, the top five in the projected lineup, are Dodgers. Mike Clevinger had a mind-blowing 13.5 K% (5.5 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts (two of them against the Dodgers) and if you think this is some magic sample size cherry picking, he did not exceed four strikeouts in a single one of those starts. He also generated just 31.8% of his contact on the ground with 13 home runs and 24 barrels (13.4%) over that span with a 5.67 ERA/6.50 FIP/5.87 xFIP combo. For the season, batters from either side of the plate are between a .306 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA against Clevinger. Mookie Betts (133 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this year), Freddie Freeman (167 wRC+, .194 ISO), Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .143 ISO), Will Smith (119 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Max Muncy (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) all project as top bats tonight.
It’s probably no surprise that Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board tonight. Cal Quantrill had just a 16.6 K% this season, while batters from either side were between a .295 and .324 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Judge is joined among the top 10 projected bats tonight by Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+, .235 ISO), one of just two projected LHBs in the Yankee lineup tonight.
The Houston Astros are the only other offense featuring multiple top 10 projected bats. Logan Gilbert actually had some success against the Astros this season (25 IP – 7 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 22 K – 100 BF), but does have a large reverse split (RHBs .334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA – LHBs .256 wOBA, .288 xwOBA). Yordan Alvarez (186 wRC+, .328 ISO) is the second best projected bat on the board, while Jose Altuve (148 wRC+, .202 ISO) lands just inside the top 10.
Are Bottom Half of the Board Pitchers Usable?
Clearly, where the bottom half of the board starts, at least in terms of cost, Logan Gilbert struck out at least nine in four of his last six starts, but also no more than five in eight of his last 11. He struck out just 22.7% of batters on the year with a strong walk rate (6.4%), but appeared to be a bit lucky with just 7.1% Barrels/BBE, despite just a 35.6 GB%, 91 mph EV and 45.6% hard hit rate. A 44.6 Z-O-Swing% suggests he wasn’t fooling many batters. With one of the more marginal defenses remaining the post season (2 Runs Prevented), the gap between Gilbert’s 3.20 ERA estimators ranging from a 3.46 FIP to a 4.11 xERA could easily be explained by that hard hit rate that showed up more in a 24.2 LD% than in barrels or home runs (9.2 HR/FB). While the Astros had a solid, but not completely intimidating 107 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs RHP, they also had a 123 wRC+ and 18.8 K% at home. Gilbert, who threw his four-seamer more than 50% of the time this year, had four Quality Starts against Houston (25 IP – 7 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 22 K – 100 BF, despite having a strong reverse split (.334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). He is your fifth best projected pitcher on either site and value on DraftKings, but the second from the bottom in terms of value on FanDuel.
Third least expensive on either site, it wasn’t strikeouts (16.6%, 10.1 K-BB%) and the contact profile was perfectly average (42.1 GB%, 7.5% Barrrels/BBE), so what was responsible for Cal Quantrill’s 3.38 ERA that was well below estimators ranging from a 4.12 FIP to a 4.50 SIERA? It was a little bit of everything, from eight unearned runs to a 9.6 HR/FB, though his .278 BABIP was actually slightly higher than what the Cleveland defense (14 Runs Prevented) allowed (.254). One interesting aspect here could be his cutter (36.1%, -0.2 RV/100, 23.8 Whiff%, .289 wOBA, .316 xwOBA). The Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP, 119 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB at home) didn’t face a ton of them in the second half, but on a per pitch basis were the fifth worst offense against the pitch (-1.18 wFC/C). He is your sixth best projected arm on either site and value on FanDuel, but second from the bottom in terms of value on DraftKings.
Second from the bottom of the board, Ranger Suarez did not exceed five strikeouts over his last eight starts, only even hitting that number twice. While the strikeout rate was just 19.5% (10.7 K-BB%), he significantly upped his value with a 55.4 GB% and 34.9% hard hit rate. The result is a 3.65 ERA that’s closest to his 3.78 xERA with additional estimators ranging as high as a 4.71 DRA. The Braves will strike out some (23.3% vs LHP), but otherwise pounded southpaws (118 wRC+) and had a 16.2 HR/FB at home this year. Suarez also had a decent sized split (RHBs .332 wOBA, .314 xwOBA) that could prove problematic against this predominantly right-handed lineup. He did face Atlanta five times this season. The first two weren’t so good (11 IP – 9 ER – 2 HR – 7 BB – 11 K – 47 BF), but the last three were much better (17 IP – 4 R – 1 ER – 6 BB – 12 K – 68 BF), including two September Quality Starts. The Phillies also have the worst defense (-31 Runs Prevented) of any post-season team, although they looked much improved in St Louis. Suarez projects as the second worst pitcher on either site and value on FanDuel, but the third best value on DraftKings.
The cheapest pitcher on either site, Mike Clevinger had a mind-blowing 13.5 K% (5.5 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts and if you think this is some magic sample size cherry picking, he did not exceed four strikeouts in a single one of those starts. He also generated just 31.8% of his contact on the ground with 13 home runs and 24 barrels (13.4%) over that span with a 5.67 ERA/6.50 FIP/5.87 xFIP combo. In fact, a 4.32 DRA is his only season estimator below a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have a great defense (25 Runs Prevented) that they showed off against the Mets, but there’s only so much they can do. Clevinger had only two pitches grade average or better by Statcast, his sinker (13.6%, -2.6 RV/100) and four-seamer (37.3%, -0.2 RV/100). The Dodgers (122 wRC+, 21.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP) were the best offense in baseball against fastballs in the second half (0.89 wFB/C) and it wasn’t even close. They also had their way with Clevinger in three starts this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF). Clevinger is the worst projected pitcher on either site and value on DraftKings, but the fourth best projected value on FanDuel, although you’d need a cast iron stomach to consider him on a single pitcher site (or either site for that matter).
Top Projected Pitcher Faces Toughest Team to K
The four game divisional round slate kicks off this afternoon and includes four $10K pitchers (though just one on DraftKings), which we’ll cover here first. Most expensively and the only pitcher reaching $10K on bothi sites, Justin Verlander finished his season with a 27.8 K% and elite 4.4 BB% and 10 more infield flies (38) than barrels (28). His 1.75 ERA broke estimators (2.49 FIP to 3.23 xFIP) with a .240 BABIP and 80.5 LOB% that weren’t even the best marks of his career. Heck, the strand rate was actually his worst since he left Detroit, though still several points above his career average (77.4%). The Astros have one of the best defenses in baseball too (25 Runs Prevented). Verlander didn’t allow a single barrel in any of his last six starts. The arsenal was simple: four-seam, curveball, slider. All grade as very strong pitches, while Mariners (106 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP) were middle of the league against all three pitches post-break. Verlander is your second best projected today and either the third (FanDuel) or fourth (DraftKings) projected value.
No more than $300 less than Verlander on either site, Gerrit Cole allowed 12 home runs and 17 barrels (14.8%) over his last eight starts. He certainly had some contact profiles that the elite strikeout rate (32.4%, 26.1 K-BB%) helped mask. On the season, he allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE with a 3.47 FIP and 3.31 xERA just about confirming his 3.50 ERA, even if contact neutral estimators were about three-quarters of a run lower. That makes this an incredibly interesting matchup because the Guardians (104 wRC+) don’t strike out against RHP (17.3%), but hit for very little power as well (8.3 HR/FB). Cole faced them twice this year, both earlier in the season, throwing 6.2 shutout innings with nine strikeouts in the first outing, but allowing just two solo home runs over six innings, striking out six in the second. The Guardians were also the fifth worst offense against fastballs post-break (-0.5 wFB/C), which should play largely in Cole’s favor (four-seam 51.9%, -0.5 RV/100, 33.8 Whiff%, .313 wOBA, .300 xwOBA). Not that he actually uses the defense much, but the Yankees were one of the better units in the league this year (16 Runs Prevented) and even better than that now with Harrison Bader in the fold. Cole is the top projected pitcher on the board and value today (tied on FanDuel).
Third most expensive on FanDuel, but $1.9K less on DraftKings, although he only went beyond five innings in two of his last six starts, Max Fried did not allow more than two earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. The strikeouts can be a bit hit or miss in any given outing, but were above average on the year (23.2%) with an elite walk rate (4.4%), while dominating contact (51.2 GB%, 86.2 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.1% 95+ mph EV). His 2.48 ERA is closest to a 2.70 FIP with a 2.85 xERA not much higher with additional estimators ranging as high as a 3.31 SIERA. All five of Fried’s pitches (10%+) grade strongly by Statcast measures (RV), though the one the Phillies struggled with most since the break (-0.37 wCB/C) was the curveball (21.6%, -1.8 RV/100, 40.2 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .200). Though the Phillies smashed LHP overall (115 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 11.9 HR/FB), Fried faced them four times and all were Quality Starts except the last one (23 IP – 8 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 25 K – 97 BF). Fried is the third best projected arm on the board and tied for the top projected value on DraftKings (second on FanDuel).
Costing $10.1 K on FanDuel, but $8.7K on DraftKings, Julio Urias does just about everything well except generate ground balls (39.7%). He strikes out batters at an above average rate (24.1%), walks very few (6.0%) and limits the hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 30.4% 95+ mph EV). The Dodgers rarely let him hit the 95 pitch mark, but he still only failed to complete six innings 10 times. That being said, and the Dodgers have a good defense (8 Runs Prevented, .255 BABIP), but a 2.16 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 2.81 xERA to a 3.81 xFIP. In fact, the xERA is his only estimator below three and a half. No matter how great the contact profile, a .229 BABIP and 86.6 LOB% are not sustainable long term and nine of his 51 runs were unearned. Urias pitched well against San Diego (103 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs LHP in four starts (24 IP – 4 ER – 3 HR – 10 BB – 18 K – 93 BF), although they did account for nearly one-quarter of his 41 walks. Urias is the fourth best projected arm on the board, but a bottom half of the board value.
KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is active Monday.
KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is active Monday.
LV TE Foster Moreau inactive Monday.
LV TE Foster Moreau inactive Monday.
New Orleans Pelicans sign Kelan Martin and Javonte Smart, and waive John Butler and John Petty Jr.
New Orleans Pelicans sign Kelan Martin and Javonte Smart, and waive John Butler and John Petty Jr.
As reported by: Andrew Lopez Other tagged players: Javonte Smart CIN WR Tee Higgins, TE Hayden Hurst and TE Devin Asiasi are all active.
CIN WR Tee Higgins, TE Hayden Hurst and TE Devin Asiasi are all active.
As reported by: Paul Dehner Jr. Other tagged players: Hayden Hurst, Devin Asiasi
PHI RB Boston Scott and K Jake Elliott are both inactive.
PHI RB Boston Scott and K Jake Elliott are both inactive.
As reported by: Tim McManus Other tagged players: Jake Elliott DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (groin) and RB Tony Pollard (illness) are active.
DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (groin) and RB Tony Pollard (illness) are active.
Other tagged players: Tony Pollard