DFS Alerts
NE QB Mac Jones (ankle), RB Damien Harris (hamstring), WR Jakobi Meyers (knee), TE Jonnu Smith (ankle), and WR Nelson Agholor (hamstring) all limited Wednesday.
NE QB Mac Jones (ankle), RB Damien Harris (hamstring), WR Jakobi Meyers (knee), TE Jonnu Smith (ankle), and WR Nelson Agholor (hamstring) all limited Wednesday.
Other tagged players: Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor
NYG RB Saquon Barkley (shoulder) and WR Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) limited in practice Wednesday. WRs Kadarius Toney (hamstring) and Kenny Golladay (knee) DNP.
NYG RB Saquon Barkley (shoulder) and WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) limited in practice Wednesday. WRs Kadarius Toney (hamstring) and Kenny Golladay (knee) DNP.
Other tagged players: Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley PIT WR Diontae Johnson (hip) limited in practice Wednesday. TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion) DNP.
PIT WR Diontae Johnson (hip) limited in practice Wednesday. TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion) DNP.
Other tagged players: Pat Freiermuth TB TE Cameron Brate (concussion) practiced in full Wednesday.
TB TE Cameron Brate (concussion) practiced in full Wednesday.
TB WR Chris Godwin (knee/hip) limited in practice Wednesday. WRs Russell Gage (ankle) and Julio Jones (knee) DNP.
TB WR Chris Godwin (knee/hip) limited in practice Wednesday. WRs Russell Gage (ankle) and Julio Jones (knee) DNP.
Other tagged players: Russell Gage, Julio Jones WAS WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring) and TE Logan Thomas (calf) ruled out for Week 6.
WAS WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring) and TE Logan Thomas (calf) ruled out for Week 6.
Other tagged players: Logan Thomas Top Projected Bat Against Reverse Split Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw was simply phenomenal when healthy this season. He allowed more than two runs in just four of 22 starts, but did have enough injury concerns to go fewer than six innings in 10 of 22 starts. While a 23.1 K-BB% was his worst mark since 2019, it’s still well above his career average (20.7%) in addition to a fantastic contact profile (47.1 GB%, 87.1 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.2% 95+ mph EV). A good defense (8 Runs Prevented, .255 BABIP allowed) were partially responsible for a 2.28 ERA that was below estimators ranging from a 2.51 xERA to a 3.13 DRA, but he also helped them out with a lot of weak contact. The Padres had a 103 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs LHP this year, only facing Kershaw twice (12 IP – 1 ER – 0 – 1 BB – 11 K – 44 BF), both prior to the break. Kershaw’s three pitch arsenal (slider, four-seam curveball) all graded much better than average via Statcast (Run Value), though the Padres were no worse than middle of the league against any of those pitches in the second half. Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but likely mostly due to workload/pitch count, projects as the worst pitcher on the board and obviously as the worst value on either site as well. He certainly has a chance to blow these projections out of the water though. The weather forecast also makes him quite a bit safer than either of the pitchers in Atlanta.
In fact, the Padres (2.92) have the lowest implied run total on the board by more than half a run. Despite the lefty on lefty situation and lowest team run total, Juan Soto (106 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP this season) projects as the top bat on the board, as LHBs (.283 wOBA, .281 xwOBA) actually performed superior to RHBs (.238 wOBA, .242 xwOBA) against Kershaw this year. Soto is the only Padres among the top 10 projected bats on either site though. We find several more Padres projected among the top 10 values on either site tonight, including Soto at $3.7K on FanDuel. Wil Myers (130 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Jake Cronenworth (108 wRC+, .155 ISO) also project as top FanDuel values for less than $3K. Myers also projects as the second best DraftKings value ($2.7K) with Trent Grisham (82 wRC+, .161 ISO) projecting as the best DK value for $400 less. The bottom of the lineup has somewhat been carrying the Padres through the post-season thus far and Austin Nola (109 wRC+, .115 ISO) projects as a top DK value for $2.5K too.
Dodger Stackers Have Some Decisions to Make
Though he only struck out four of 28 batters, Yu Darvish shut the Mets down over seven innings (six hits, one run) in the Wild Card series. He failed to go at least six innings twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second half strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. The San Diego defense is the best on the board today (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league). Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast. The Dodgers (122 wRC+, 21.6 K%, 10.0 BB%) don’t really have a problem pitch, but Darvish did have some success against them this year (25 IP – 7 ER – 4 HR – 5 BB – 31 K – 101 BF). The second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, third most on DraftKings, Darvish projects as the third best pitcher on the board, but less than a point below Kyle Wright on either site. He does, however, project as the third best or second worst value on either site.
The Dodgers (4.08) are essentially tied with the Braves for the top team run total on the board with five of the top 10 projected bats on the board in their projected lineup. Darvish had a bit of a reverse split this year (RHBs .294 wOBA, .312 xwOBA – LHBs .239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA). Mookie Betts (133 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this year) is the second best projected bat on the board and Freddie Freeman (167 wRC+, .194 ISO) is the third best projected bat. Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .143 ISO), Will Smith (119 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Max Muncy (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) also project among the top 10. The Dodgers also project as five of the top 10 values on FanDuel, including Muncy, Smith and then Justin Turner (129 wRC+, .178 ISO), Trayce Thompson (182 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (92 wRC+, .203 ISO). Smith ($3.2K) is the only one of the five costing more than $3K. On DraftKings, Turner, Thompson and Bellinger also project as top 10 values with Turner ($3.9K) the only one of the three not within $200 of $3K. Dodgers stackers have some decisions to make.
Cheapest DraftKings Arm Is Your Top Projected Value
Kyle Wright only completed six innings in one of his last five starts, but allowed two runs or less in each of his last four. A breakout season included a 23.6 K% (16.4 K-BB%), 55.6 GB% and just 6.8% Barrels/BBE. That said, his 3.19 ERA was a bit below esimators ranging from a 3.26 DRA to a 3.89 xERA. The strikeout rate was merely league average (21.5%) over his last 22 starts too. The Phillies had a 102 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP this year and struggled in three matchups against Wright this year (19 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 7 BB – 15 K – 73 BF). Wright’s most frequently thrown pitch was a curveball (34.1%, -1.1 RV/100, 33.5 Whiff%, .263 wOBA, .262 xwOBA), which it may behoove him to continue to utilize frequently against the Phillies (-0.37 wCB/C since the break). Wright is the least expensive pitcher on either site, but the second best projected one (by less than a point though), which makes him the top projected DraftKings value (second best projected FanDuel value). However, he, like Wheeler of course, has major weather concerns in a hitter friendly environment with a hitter friendly umpire.
The Phillies have the third highest (or second lowest) team run total on the board (3.46), half a run behind the Dodgers and Braves and half a run ahead of the Padres. Bryce Harper (148 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP this year), Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .334 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (129 wRC+, .207 ISO) all project as top 10 bats today, but this lineup is a bit stars and scrubs with Rhys Hoskins and Brandon Marsh the only other two batters in the lineup reaching a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. LHBs (.308 wOBA, .329 xwOBA) hit Wright a bit better than RHBs (.265 wOBA, .280 ISO) this year. Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO) are the top two projected FanDuel values on the board for $2.5K or less. Both are also top 10 projected DraftKings values, though the latter costs $3.6K.
Top Projected Pitcher Has Weather Concerns
Zack Wheeler struck out just four of the 22 Cardinals he faced in the Wild Card round with a single walk, a HBP and four hits over 6.2 shutout innings. He missed a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are the only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh) and they did improve the defense with some trade deadline acquisitions. The Braves have a 108 wRC+, but 25.1 K% vs RHP and also have a 16+ HR/FB both vs RHP and at home. Potentially a problem, Wheeler doesn’t have a pitch the Braves struggled against in the second half of the season. They were particularly proficient against sliders (0.32 wSL/C). Wheeler was strong in three starts against the Braves this year (20 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 1 BB – 25 K – 77 BF). Despite some weather concerns and an extremely hitter friendly umpire (neither of which are baked into projections), Wheeler projects as the top pitcher on the board and as the third most expensive one, the top projected FanDuel value. Wheeler is the second most expensive DraftKings pitcher and second best projected DK value.
Offensively, the Braves (4.04 implied runs) are essentially tied with the Dodgers for the top team run total, yet Ronald Acuna Jr. (118 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Atlanta bat, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .262 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Wheeler this season. However, the first eight batters in the Atlanta confirmed lineup all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP this year. The Atlanta lineup does not feature a top 10 projected FanDuel value, but Eddie Rosario (64 wRC+, .122 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (108 wRC+, .248 ISO) project as top 10 DraftKings values for less than $3K.
Detroit Pistons forward Marvin Bagley III will miss time to start the season due to a right knee injury but MRI appears to show he has avoided a serious injury.
Detroit Pistons forward Marvin Bagley III will miss time to start the season due to a right knee injury but MRI appears to show he has avoided a serious injury.
Houston Rockets waive Moe Harkless.
Houston Rockets waive Moe Harkless.
As reported by: Shams Charania LaMelo Ball diagnosed with a Grade 2 left ankle sprain and is expected to miss time at the start of the regular season.
LaMelo Ball diagnosed with a Grade 2 left ankle sprain and is expected to miss time at the start of the regular season.
As reported by: Shams Charania Miami Heat guard Marcus Garrett will be out at least four weeks with a right wrist fracture.
Miami Heat guard Marcus Garrett will be out at least four weeks with a right wrist fracture.
As reported by: Miami Heat