DFS Alerts
Reds provide some value options in plus match up
Jeremy Hellickson is getting the nod for the Phillies today facing the Reds in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in a game that features one of the higher totals of the day. There are some appealing options on the Reds, led by Joey Votto who is the priciest of the bunch. There is a ton of value to be had in the Reds lineup, however, as Zack Cosart leads off at a super friendly price tag and is followed in the batting order by Eugenio Suarez who is also very affordable. In fact, outside of Votto everyone in the top six of the lineup is cheap and in a good spot including Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. Devin Mesoraco is batting sixth coming off of an injury-plagued season, but he’s healthy at this point and still possesses considerable power upside from a catcher in his price range.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco
Giants are a team worth targeting on today's MLB slate
Wily Peralta, for some odd reason, is getting the opening day start for the hapless Milwaukee Brewers in the friendly confines of Miller Park. This makes hitters on the San Francisco Giants players to target and with their lineup released we can focus in a bit more. Peralta does not discriminate against which side of the plate will crush him as he allowed a .345+ wOBA to lefties and righties last season. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Denard Span, and Hunter Pence all had .360+ wOBA’s against RHP last season (per RotoGrinder’s MLB Grind Down) and are in the top five of today’s lineup. Each is in play either individually or as part of a Giants stack. You can also look towards Joe Panik (batting 2nd) and Matt Duffy (batting 6th) if you want more pieces of the Giants lineup.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Denard Span Clayton Kershaw is the clear-cut cash game play on Opening Day
Yesterday was just a bit of teaser of what is coming today, so welcome to the real MLB opening day! Opening Day in the MLB is a bit odd because we will be seeing virtually half of the teams pitching their “ace” and the ownership of pitchers will likely be about as spread out as we will see all season. There are ten pitchers priced over $9,000 on FD, so it is almost unavoidable to spend up on a pitcher especially in cash games. With that being said, why not spend all the way up to the top for arguably the best pitcher in the game right now in Clayton Kershaw? Last season he boasted a league-high 33.8% strikeout rate, and luckily for him he faces one of the worst hitting teams in the league in the Padres. The Padres’ current roster has a wOBA of .285 which makes for the lowest in the league, and last year they really struggled to hit lefties. Versus left-handers they struck out at a rate of 23.3% which is good for fourth highest in the MLB. They also have an ISO of .128 vs. southpaws which is well below the league average. In a pitcher-friendly park like Petco where there are 14% less runs allowed than average, the prospect of rostering Kershaw continues to be more and more attractive. The Dodgers are heavy favorites in this one which is very important on a site like FD that offers 12 points for a W. The Padres have by far the lowest projected team total at 2.32 runs and Kershaw is far and away the top option on this slate.
Houston Astros at New York Yankees game postponed due to inclement weather
The game will be made up tomorrow at 1:05 p.m. ET. Don’t roster any Yankees or Astros including scheduled starters Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel as they will not accumulate fantasy points today.
As reported by: New York Yankees official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda are the Mets bats to target against Edinson Volquez
Michael Conforto and Neil Walker are perfectly suitable targets also, but Granderson and Duda stand a bit above the rest. Volquez’s split stats were fairly similar last year (.302 wOBA vs. LHs, .308 wOBA vs. RHs), but diving deeper shows that he allows more hard contact to left-handers. Lefties made hard contact on 32.5% of balls in play against Volquez last year (12.4% soft contact), and those numbers were slightly worse when he was pitching at home (36.0 hard%, 11.1 soft%). Volquez allowed a 28.2 hard% and 19.9 soft% to RHs last season. Both Granderson and Duda hit RHs well and each possesses above average power, so targeting them against arguably the weakest pitcher on the slate is a recommended strategy.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda
No surprises in the Royals opening night lineup; Hosmer, Moustakas and Morales in favorable spots
We won’t be targeting Matt Harvey with bats very often this year, but the opening day short-slate more or less forces us into doing so. Harvey endured most of his struggles when he was facing left-handed hitters on the road, so that’s the direction we’ll look in today. In 2015, Harvey owned a 4.29 FIP/4.56 xFIP when facing LHs on the road, and actually owned a 3.62 BB/9 ratio which is significantly worse than his overall average. His BABIP and LOB% in that split (vs. LH on the road) are pretty much in line with his averages outside of that split, which would insinuate that his struggles aren’t necessarily a fluke. Hosmer is the top target on the Royals side (.396 wOBA, .222 ISO vs. RHs at home), but Kendrys Morales (.384 wOBA, .254 ISO vs. RHs at home) and Mike Moustakas (.387 wOBA, .209 ISO) are also squarely in play.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Kendrys Morales, Matt Harvey Weather conditions in Cleveland on Monday expected to be frigid
The Indians coldest recorded opening day was back in 1907 at 36 degrees, but tomorrow could potentially end up breaking that record. Not only is it expected to be cold, but strong winds to the northwest are also expected. Wind direction can change rather quickly, but there’s no doubt that we’ll be dealing with conditions that are not favorable to hitters. With David Price and Corey Kluber facing off here, look for this game to be very low scoring. Both pitchers are viable targets but the bats are probably best left alone.
As reported by: Scott Sabol Other tagged players: David Price Kevin Pillar leading off for the Jays on Sunday
He’ll get the first crack at the leadoff spot for Toronto, which is great news for his DFS value. Not only do leadoff hitters tend to perform the best in terms of DFS output, but he may have the strongest trio of hitters behind him in the 2-3-4 spots. Given Pillar’s ability to steal bases, he has an extremely high ceiling anytime he’s atop the Blue Jays order. Today’s match-up with Chris Archer obviously isn’t ideal (Archer owned a 1.53 FIP/2.33 xFIP at home vs. RHs in 2015), but if Pillar can hold onto this lineup spot going forward, he’s going to have himself some very productive games in the near future.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page New-look Rays lineup in a (relatively) favorable spot on Sunday
With a bevy of aces on the mound over the next two days, it’s going to be tough to find exploitable match-ups on the offensive side. Our best shot at that from a value standpoint appears to come from the Rays lineup, which features a very different look from last season. Logan Forsythe will move up to the top of the order with Logan Morrison slotting in behind him and Corey Dickerson hitting in the clean-up spot. While Dickerson’s numbers against RHs were inflated some due to Coors Field, he still owned a .241 ISO against RHP on the road. Morrison went on a bit of a power surge last season, blasting 17 HRs against RHP in just 315 ABs, but his 14.9% HR/FB rate indicates that some regression is heading his way. The thing that makes some of the Rays bats so appealing is their price tags, as Dickerson is the only Rays starter with a salary over $3K on FanDuel. Brad Miller is another salary-induced play at minimum price on FanDuel; he’s hitting sixth and finished the 2015 campaign with a .348 wOBA/.187 ISO against RHP. His 33.1% hard-hit rate suggests he may be in for an even better year in 2016, especially considering that he started to heat up towards the end of last year.
Other tagged players: Logan Morrison, Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller Francisco Liriano looks to take advantage of St. Louis' struggles vs. LHP on Sunday
The Cardinals owned the 3rd worst OPS (.662), 3rd worst K% (23.6), 4th worst wOBA (.291) and 7th worst ISO (.125) against left-handed pitching in 2015. Those numbers in themselves should make DFS players flock to Liriano today, and the poor weather conditions for hitters (temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s) only helps his cause. While Liriano is fairly volatile, he’s a clear-cut cash game option today on a short-slate that features a handful of the top offenses in baseball.
PIT-STL dealing with chilly temperatures on Sunday
This is definitely not ideal for offensive production. Higher temperature equals lower air density, which allows a baseball to travel further. Between 2000-2014, teams playing in 90-plus degrees hit HRs 26% more often than those playing in temperatures of 60-69 degrees and 38% more frequently than those playing in temps between 50-59. There is also data that shows teams score more total runs as temperature increases, so weather will remain a huge factor early in the season when conditions vary more across the country. The Tampa-Toronto game will be played in a dome, while the KC-NYM match-up is expected to have game-time temperatures in the mid-70s.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page John Jaso leading off, David Freese batting third for Pittsburgh on Sunday
Freese is in an unexpectedly favorable lineup spot against Adam Wainwright, but he’s got a few other factors working against him. Not only does this game have the lowest total of the day, but game-time temperatures will be in the mid-to-low 40s which is bad news for offense in general. While Adam Wainwright didn’t pitch much in the regular season last year, he held right-handed hitters to a .243 wOBA and allowed just 7 HRs in 128 IP to righties in 2014. Freese actually had better splits against right-handed pitching last year, but some of that was due to his .341 BABIP against RHP (compared to .225 vs. LHs) – he’s been a better fantasy producer over the course of his career against lefties. As for Jaso, he’ll have the platoon advantage against Wainwright and his catcher eligibility on DFS sites makes him an extremely appealing option out of the leadoff spot. Jaso was the owner of a .358 wOBA and .180 ISO against RHP in 2015, which are actually a bit lower than we’d expect for someone with a 38.1% hard-hit rate against righties. At $2500 on FanDuel, Jaso is playable in any format on Sunday.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page