DFS Alerts
Deep Field GPP Play
I might be the only one on this play today, and if you’d rather not play Naylor, you can always play Naquin. While both of these guys have a decent shot of getting pinch hit for, I still like both of them. Naylor may not have been great this season, but looking at last season, he owns a 43.5% Hard Hit rate against RHP and Cole has really struggled against lefty power. Naylor is sitting at just 2.5k over on DK and even though he will likely be batting 8th, he still has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark today. Decent chance he gets you a zero here, but with all the great pitching on the slate today, there’s a good chance any of your batters do the same thing today.
My Favorite GPP Play
My favorite play probably on the entire slate today is Ramirez. He draws a tough matchup against Cole, but Cole isn’t the same pitcher he was last season. On the year, Cole is giving up a massive 57.7 FB rate and 41.7% hard hit rate to go with a .309 ISO vs lefties so far this season and it sets up as a great spot for Ramirez. Ramirez is an extreme fly ball hitter with some power from the left side of the plate and with his price tag today, I don’t expect him to draw a lot of ownership. He probably has as decent chance as anyone on this slate to hit a HR, so roster him in big field tournaments for a lot of upside.
Engage The Lefty Stack
Quantrill has historically shown wide splits to lefties where in his career, he’s allowed a .337 wOBA to lefties compared to a .272 wOBA to righties. The weird thing is those numbers flipped this year where he’s worse to righties than lefties this season. I don’t know if something changed like a pitch type or approach, but I still am going to side with the lefties given his historical numbers. The Pirates are not a good offense so I’m not going crazy here, but they did have a decent showing on Saturday with eight runs. If stacking the lefties and hoping Quantrill’s historical splits override his 2020 splits, then I’d go with a stack focused on Adam Frazier, Colin Moran, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco and Bryan Reynolds, with righty Ke’Bryan Hayes someone to also consider if you want his power upside.
Potential Value Arm
Wow, I never thought I’d even consider Pivetta on a slate but this is a DraftKings only inclusion where he’s $5,900 and the cheapest pitcher I’d consider. His season numbers are ugly but he threw 96 pitches last start so he’s stretched out, and showcased his strikeout ability against the Orioles by fanning eight batters over five innings. The Braves are an elite offense but it’s possible they rest their starters in this meaningless game, in which case I’d be open to Pivetta in GPPs in order to get access to a higher priced stack. So I’m including him here but it’s dependent on the type of lineup the Braves roll out.
Mets-Nationals postponed Friday due to weather
Friday night’s game between the Mets and Nationals has been postponed due to weather. The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader tomorrow. Make sure to get players from this game out of your lineups!
Salvador Perez has a .306 ISO vs RHP this year
Spencer Turnbull has just a 7.7 K-BB% with a 91.4 mph EV. A 50.4 GB% has held his Barrels/BBE to 7.0%, but even then, just two of his 10 Barrels have left the yard, resulting in a 3.83 ERA and 3.59 FIP with all remaining estimators at least half a run higher. The Royals have just a 91 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP, but with the wind blowing out to left tonight, conditions are favorable for right-handed power. The hottest hitter in baseball over the last 30 days is Salvador Perez (287 wRC+), who now has a 188 wRC+ and .306 ISO vs RHP this season. The cost has risen to $3.7K on FanDuel tonight, but Perez has homered three times in the past two games. While Turnbull doesn’t have much of a split, batters from either side of the plate are above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career.
Dylan Cease has more walks than strikeouts over his last five starts
Dylan Cease has ceased to pitch competently in 2020. Over his last five starts, he’s walked 20 with just 17 strikeouts, yet still has just a 4.09 ERA over that span (.220 BABIP, 9.5 HR/FB). He’s allowed just two HRs and Barrels during this run with a 49.2 GB%, but 89.8 mph EV. The 78.9 LOB% doesn’t hurt the results either. His numbers are a mess everywhere except for the scoreboard right now and it’s going to be tough for the White Sox to trust him this post-season. The Cubs haven’t been hitting anything recently though (31 wRC+, 3.4 HR/FB last 30 days), so maybe the magic continues tonight. Just three batters in the projected lineup are above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. One of those guys though, is Ian Happ, who also has a 140 wRC+ and .313 ISO vs RHP since 2019. He costs just $3K on FanDuel. Considering the fact that LHBs have a .387 wOBA (.367 xwOBA) against Cease since he arrived in the majors, Happ could be one of the top values on the board tonight.
Yu Darvish has struck out at least seven in eight straight starts
Yu Darvish has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over his last 19 innings, but has still struck out at least seven in eight straight starts, walking more than two just once this year. That gives him a board topping 27.6 K-BB% that even a 27.7 LD% can’t spoil. While a 2.23 FIP matches his 2.22 ERA, additional estimators range as high as a 3.37 DRA, which is still quite impressive. It may account quality of strength of opposing offenses, while also pitching in favorable Wrigley weather a few times. His first four starts were against the Brewers, Royals and Pirates, but he hasn’t faced a non-playoff contender since then. The White Sox have a dangerous offense (107 wRC+, 18.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but this spot is not without upside (White Sox 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP, 31.9 K% last seven days). Only four batters in the projected lineup are above a 99 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Another positive are Darvish’s splits. The White Sox are predominantly a right-handed lineup and batters from that side have just a .260 wOBA against Darvish since 2019. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $11.2K. He’s $400 more than Carlos Carrasco, who looks great in a fantastic matchup against the Pirates, but Darvish has the higher strikeout rate by 3.6 points in a more dangerous matchup (which could lower his ownership rate), but one with just as much upside.
The potential NL MVP has a 206 wRC+ over the last 30 days
The 30 year-old Chris Mazza has thrown just 25 of his 41.1 major league innings this season with just an 8.8 K-BB% and 32.5 LD%, but his 85.7 mph EV is best on the board. He’s allowed just two Barrels and as many HRs with a .373 BABIP and 65.5 LOB%. Very strangely, his contact profile inclusive 6.02 xERA is well above his 5.40 ERA, which exceeds all other estimators by a quarter of a run or more. One assumption we can make is that quality left-handed pitching doesn’t often float around the minor leagues until they’re 30. He’ll attempt to hold an Atlanta offense with a 129 wRC+ and 18.6 HR/FB vs RHP in check tonight. He probably won’t be able to do so. In his short career, batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Mazza (RHBs .383/.413). The potential NL MVP costs $4.4K on FanDuel tonight, but may just be the top bat on the board. Freddie Freeman has a 171 wRC+ and .303 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and a 206 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He’s up to a 92.5 mph EV on the season with 14.1% Barrels/BBE.
Fine Is Good Enough
I’m assuming that we see at least slightly lower than normal ceilings for the top pitchers tonight with all of them having already clinched playoff spots. I still certainly prefer guys like Darvish and Carrasco for raw points, but if we only see 90-pitch, 6-inning type starts from the aces, then I’m just as happy getting decent pitchers in strong matchups. That starts with Jose Urquidy against the Rangers. His strikeout rate is down this season, but it’s a very small sample and he’s still been able to rack up back-to-back-to-back quality starts and his swinging strikes make me believe his K% will trend back up towards at least average.
If You're Paying Up
I do not think it is entirely necessary to pay up for an SP1 in all contests tonight. I’m going to have a couple extra cheaper pitchers tagged on DK, and depending on what you want to do with your bats, I’d be fine to use two cheaper pitchers. But if you have the salary to spend, I’ll side with Yu Darvish ahead of Carlos Carrasco, though both are quite viable. Carrasco looked better last start, but Darvish has been the more consistently dominant ace this season, and while the White Sox have plenty of power, this is still a good strikeout matchup.
The Clear Value Arm
I am not going to put a ton of stock into Urquidy’s 2020 stats, as he has only pitched 22 2/3 innings this year. Remember, in his first taste of big league action in 2019, he posted a league average strikeout rate with very good command. The primary reason to target him tonight is a matchup against a weak hitting Texas lineup that strikes out a lot. In addition, his best start of this season came against these same Rangers two weeks ago, as he fired seven brilliant innings, allowing just one run with no walks and seven strikeouts. He’s a great SP2 option in any format this evening.
Friday's Clear SP1
The Cubs have been struggling and are still trying to clinch the NL Central. The White Sox have been struggling and have now fallen to second place in the AL Central, one behind the Twins. I mention those items to reiterate that this is a key game for the two cross-town rivals. Darvish makes sense as the top overall pitching option on this slate. He has maintained his elite command this year with a 32%+ strikeout rate and sub-5% walk rate, and his ERA and xFIP are both in the low to mid twos. The White Sox are scuffling at the plate right now, and there are some strikeouts in this lineup. When you factor in safety and upside, Darvish is your SP1 tonight.
Fire Up The Lefties
I love this spot for Kepler. The Twins have surged this week while the White Sox have blown game after game, and now the Twins suddenly find themselves in the drivers’ seat for the top spot in the AL Central. They face a pitcher in Tyler Mahle who has allowed a career .371 wOBA to LHBs to go along with an xFIP close to 6.00. Kepler is still affordable with the pricing algorithms being thrown off by his time on the injured list, and this is a fantastic buy low spot. Eddie Rosario is also a key piece of any Minnesota mini-stack that you might run against Mahle here.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario Anderson Tejeda scratched Thursday
Tejeda has been scratched due to a skin infection. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will now play shortstop with Sherten Apostel in at third base. Ronald Guzman will jump from the eighth spot to the seventh spot in the order with Apostel batting eighth.
Other tagged players: Ronald Guzman, Sherten Apostel