DFS Alerts
Alex Cobb has been one of the hardest hit pitchers in the league (91.1 mph EV)
Alex Cobb has been one of the hardest hit pitchers in the league with a 91.1 mph EV (10.7% Barrels/BBE) despite keeping 52.7% of his contact on the ground. Furthermore, while a full quarter of his fly balls have left the yard, that still only represents eight of his 15 Barrels. And we haven’t even mentioned the 17% strikeout rate. So while his 4.76 ERA is in line with his 4.66 SIERA and even well above a 4.24 DRA, a 5.10 FIP and 7.03 xERA (includes contact profile via Statcast) see things much differently. At 5.34 implied runs, the Red Sox are expected to be one of the top offenses on the main slate. Everyone in the lineup is above a 95 wRC+ with at least a .160 ISO vs RHP since 2019, while batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA in 57.2 innings against Cobb since last year. Only two batters in the projected Boston lineup are below a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Rafael Devers (151 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since last season) has caught fire with a 165 wRC+ over the last month and now has a lineup leading 92.5 mph EV for the season. He may be one of the top bats on the board tonight. For nearly $1K less on FanDuel, Alex Verdugo (123 wRC+, .203 ISO) may be one of the best values.
Corbin Burnes has struck out at least nine in four of five starts
Corbin Burnes has struck out at least nine in four of his last five starts, allowing just one earned run over that span. On top of this, he’s generated just an 86.8 mph EV. Even so, he’s allowed eight Barrels, while just one of his pitches has left the park. While a 1.78 FIP agrees with his 1.77 ERA, all of his remaining estimators are quite a bit higher, but when a 3.07 SIERA is the worst they can say about you, you’re doing a lot of things right. Burns is your top pitcher tonight, even on a six game slate that includes Walker Buehler (potentially limited workload), Lance Lynn (low upside matchup against contact prone Astros) and Ian Anderson (weather concerns). Burnes faces a very marginal St Louis offense (93 wRC+, 23.9 K%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a very negative run environment (Cardinals 12.7 HR/FB at home). Only one batter in the projected St Louis lineup is above a 118 wRC+ or .206 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Only three are above a 98 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Lynn likely holds a workload advantage over Burnes, having thrown more than 100 pitches every time out, but Burnes seems to have the edge in every other aspect.
Best PPD Pitcher on the Slate
Bubic’s numbers aren’t anything to write home about, but when you consider the matchup and the price tag this is a fantastic spot. He is priced at just 6.6k over on DK and is going up against the Tigers. On the season, Bubic owns a 4.74 xFIP to go along with a 22.2% K rate, but this lineup should roll out 5 bad righties where Bubic owns a .304 wOBA and 23.4% K rate on the season. The few lefties in the lineup are below average bats and only 1 hitter in this lineup owns a sub 19% k rate against LHP. While Bubic might now get a massive score here, he has gone over 100 pitches in 3 of his last 4 matchups and has averaged close to 20 points in that span. On a 6 game slate with these pitchers, don’t be surprised if that’s one of the top scores.
Salvador Perez is the hottest hitter in baseball (280 wRC+ last 30 days)
Michael Fulmer has made 11 starts without exceeding three innings pitched in any of them, this by design apparently. In just 25.1 innings, he’s allowed seven HRs with a 6.6 K-BB% and 90.9 mph EV. A .378 BABIP and 21.9 HR/FB aren’t supposed to be sustainable and that may be true even here. Despite the exit velocity, he’s only allowed as many Barrels as HRs. His best estimator, is still an awful 5.47 SIERA that’s more than two and a half runs below his ERA though. Batters from the right side of the plate have hammered Fulmer for a wOBA and xwOBA above .500 since returning from injury this year! LHBs haven’t been bad either (.320 wOBA, .323 xwOBA). Fulmer is certainly still a pitcher daily fantasy players want to attack. Let’s look at the hottest bat in baseball over the last month. Salvador Perez has a 280 wRC+ over the last 30 days and nobody else is even above 250 (10 PA min.). Perez homered twice last night and now has 179 wRC+ with a .286 ISO vs RHP in a little over 100 PAs since last season. He’s barreled 11.4% of his contact with a 90.6 mph EV overall this year. With the consideration of potentially paying down for pitching tonight, a $3.6K catcher on FanDuel could be a top bat.
Lower Owned Cheapy
While you probably don’t need Hays on todays slate with there being so much other value on the slate, he does grade out as a cent play. While his numbers in the majors aren’t anything to write home about, He did show decent pop last season owning a .200 ISO in AAA and a .265 ISO in the majors. He draws a matchup against Perez who is probably a below average pitcher at this point and the Red Sox Bullpen is in the bottom 10 this season. He has one of the best ballparks on the slate and one of the better matchups. If you don’t want to play some of the better value on the slate, or you just want a lower owned guy, Hayes isn’t a bad way to go.
Too much Pop for the Price
For some reason when Soler came back from injury DK just completely forgot to price him appropriately. Now, he’s still way too cheap for what he offers. Very few guys in the Majors have as much power a Soler. Since the beginning of last season he has a .299 ISO vs RHP and a .244 ISO vs LHP. The Tigers should be rolling out a mix of both Fulmer and Alexander today both of which have been hot trash on the mound this season giving up massive amounts of hard contact and owning xFIPs above 7 and 5 respectively. Expect a bomb out of Soler today and the only reason to fade him is ownership (which still isn’t worth it).
A Cheap Ancient Relic
When Cabrera first came into the league when the MLB was first established back in the late 1800s, he was one of the best players in the league. Now at the ripe old age of 137, he is showing some signs of life. Since the beginning of last season, Cabrea owns a .205 ISO and .411 wOBA vs LHP. He gets a matchup against Bubic who is a decent pitcher, but still gives up a large amount of hard contact to Righties and doesn’t have any real great skills to write home about. Cabrera is super cheap at 2.8k and is a fantastic value play on all sites today.
Top Play on the Slate
This is a clear mispricing for Garcia today. He is priced as if Kim’s actual ERA is accurate, but all underlying numbers tell us it isn’t. Kim currently leads the MLB in ERA, but he is ranked around 90th in xFIP. He doesn’t strike out a lot of guys and gives up near a 50% hard hit rate. Garcia on the other hand is priced at just 2.4k over on DK and owns a .197 ISO and .353 wOBA vs LHP since the beginning of last season. Add in that he’s leading off for the road team and STL has a well below average bullpen and hasn’t had a day of rest since early August and you have the clear top play point per dollar on the entire slate. You can fade him for ownership, but that’s really the only reason.
Don't Overthink It
Based on name recognition, and salary on DK, Walker Buehler and Lance Lynn may still look like the aces on the slate, but make no mistake about it, Corbin Burnes is the best DFS pitcher on this slate. His 37.6% K rate is the 4th highest mark in the league, and is more than 10% higher than either Buehler or Lynn. Burnes is also in top form recently, with 47 strikeouts in his last 30 innings.
Affordable Stack With Upside
The Orioles are never the most fun offense to trust, but they are affordable bats that can help make the salary cap work on this slate. I like their stackable options more against LHP, especially now that they have potential lefty masher Ryan Mountcastle up at the MLB level. They get a good matchup here against Martin Perez, who owns a walk rate over 11% with a SIERA and xFIP above 5.00 for the year. The Orioles are by far my favorite sneaky stack on this slate.
Rising Rookie
Anderson is one of Atlanta’s top pitching prospects, and he has shown well in his first taste of MLB action with an ERA under 3.00 and a strikeout rate north of 30% over his first five starts. The Braves are blazing toward the postseason and are still playing for seeding, making Anderson a worthwhile target against a hit or miss Marlins offense. He’s a great tournament pivot off the other top options on the board.
The Top Pitching Choice
Corbin Burnes is far and away the pitcher I want to prioritize tonight. The Dodgers are not going to take any chances with a large workload for Walker Buehler, and Burnes brings the best combination of safety and upside on the board. He’s a virtual must play on DK where his price is far too cheap, and he’s a great play on FD/Yahoo as well despite the price bump. Burnes has quietly emerged as an ace in Milwaukee, posting a 1.77 ERA and a Bieber-like 37.6% strikeout rate. He is also allowing hard contact at a sub-30% clip. He’s a great option against a St. Louis lineup that has lacked any semblance of run producing ability over the last few weeks.
Joe Kelly to open for the Dodgers on Wednesday
Joe Kelly will start for the Dodgers tonight and will likely only go an inning after recording three outs in last night’s game. Julio Urias is still likely to see work behind Kelly, so not a whole lot changes for the A’s, although the lefties at the top of the order for Oakland will be in a better spot in the first inning.
Other tagged players: Julio Urias
Caleb Baragar to open for the Giants on Wednesday
Barager will open for the Giants on Wednesday and isn’t likely to go more than an inning or two. It is Logan Webb’s turn in the rotation, so it’s possible we see him as the long-man, although that hasn’t been confirmed. Barager is a lefty, so this does help the right-handers at the top of the Rockies lineup, although they’ll likely only see him once.
Other tagged players: Logan Webb Alex Dickerson has the second best wRC+ (238) in baseball over the last 30 days
Ryan Castellani has walked 13 of his last 64 batters with just six strikeouts and five HRs. And yet, his 5.59 ERA is still more than half a run below all of his estimators! The combination of a 1.8 K-BB%, 38.3 GB% and 90.9 mph EV is not good. The good news is that he’s allowed 11 HRs, but only eight Barrels, so some of that hard contact will eventually stay in the park to drive his .202 BABIP up. To repeat, he has a 5.59 ERA with just a .202 BABIP. The Giants have a 109 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP with a respectable 14.3 HR/FB at home, as the park in San Francisco has played much less pitcher friendly this year. With batters from either side of the plate above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Castellani, the Giants are likely to own some of the best bats on the board tonight without a single batter in tonight’s projected lineup above $3K on FanDuel. Alex Dickerson (138 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a 238 wRC+ over the last 30 days that’s second best in baseball among those with at least 10 PAs. He may just be the top bat on the FanDuel main slate tonight.