DFS Alerts
More Offensive Responsibility
Kawhi Leonard is fully expected to sit the second leg of Sunday’s back-to-back which should open up the door for an underpriced Paul George to take over the offense. In 392 minutes with Leonard off the court this season, George has seen his usage rate jump to nearly 35% and is averaging 8+ DK points and 7+ FD points per 36 minutes. George has only topped 30 minutes once since his return from injury but should be in line for more action on Sunday as long as the game stays close.
Expected To Shoulder The Load
With this being the back end of a back-to-back, it’s doubtful Kawhi Leonard plays tonight. The Clippers could add new forward Marcus Morris tonight, but the loss of Leonard opens up a ton of usage. Per CourtIQ, when Leonard has been off the court, Paul George has seen his usage shoot up to 34.8% and average 1.57 fantasy points per minute. He’s going to be needed tonight, especially with both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell in slumps, and with the Clippers coming off an embarrassing road loss to the Timberwolves last night that ended their 13 game losing streak.
Picking Up The Slack
The Heat will be short-handed on Sunday, missing Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro (doubtful). They will add newly-acquired Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala and Solomon Hill to the mix, but I’m expecting Goran Dragic to be tasked with helping to make up for the lost guards. It’s hard to tell how Dragic and the others will be impacted with Crowder/Iguodala/Hill now in the rotation, but we know Dragic’s role is secure and he should see an uptick in usage and minutes with the Heat down two guards. Dragic did have a monster 48+ fantasy game against these Blazers a few weeks ago when the Heat were similarly down players, so he’s held his own before against Dame and the Blazers.
Paul Millsap (knee), Jerami Grant (ankle), and Jordan McRae (ankle) available to play Saturday
As expected, Millsap, Grant, and McRae will be available to play in Saturday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns after being listed as probable on the Nuggets’ injury report, while Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. were already ruled out with their respective ailments. There haven’t been any reports of a potential minute restriction for Millsap in his first game back in an extended period of time, but the Nuggets did confirm that Millsap will come off of the bench in favor of Grant in tonight’s contest, likely signaling he’ll be eased back into game action to at least some extent this evening. Millsap is averaging a solid 0.96 DraftKings and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute on the season thus far, but given the uncertainty surrounding his playing time, he’ll be an easy player to avoid on an eight-game main slate.
As reported by: the Denver Nuggets via Twitter Other tagged players: Jerami Grant, Jordan McRae
Draymond Green (back) scratched Saturday; Eric Paschall will start
Despite originally being upgraded from questionable, Green has been scratched from the starting lineup and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers due to low back tightness, while Andrew Wiggins will start and be available to make his Warriors debut in tonight’s contest. In Green’s absence, Eric Pachall will receive the starting nod at power forward, but the promotion to the first unit may not result in a significant increase in playing time since he was already slated for a substantial minute workload off the bench with Golden State integrating some newly-signed players into the rotation this evening. Outside of the starters and possibly Jordan Poole, it’s nearly impossible to project how head coach Steve Kerr plans to divvy up minutes in his rotation tonight and moving forward, so any ancillary rotational players will be reserved to tournament formats only until further clarity can be provided.
As reported by: Anthony Slater via Twitter Other tagged players: Eric Paschall Zion Williamson (ankle) out Saturday
Williamson has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers due to a sprained left ankle, while Brandon Ingram was previously ruled out with a sprained right ankle. Ingram sustained his injury midway through the third quarter of Thursday’s win, and he was replaced by Josh Hart, who went on to total just 26 minutes in relief because of the blowout nature of the contest. Even though head coach Alvin Gentry typically prefers to keep Hart in a sixth-man role, he is expected to join the starting lineup in Ingram’s absence this evening. Derrick Favors hasn’t really been allotted a typical starters’ minute workload since returning from an extended injury layoff, but he’ll be an intriguing tournament target on an eight-game slate given the potential for extra playing time, and he has a 24.0% rebound rate and is averaging 1.27 DraftKings and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute with Williamson and Ingram off the court this season.
As reported by: Jim Eichenhofer via Twitter Brandon Ingram (ankle) officially out Saturday
As expected, Ingram has officially been downgraded from doubtful and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers due to a sprained right ankle, while Zion Williamson remains questionable and will be a game-time decision with a sprained left ankle. Ingram sustained his injury midway through the third quarter of Thursday’s win, and he was replaced by Josh Hart, who went on to total just 26 minutes in relief because of the blowout nature of the contest. Even though head coach Alvin Gentry typically prefers to keep Hart in a sixth-man role, he is expected to join the starting lineup in Ingram’s likely absence this evening. Since Williamson has only played eight games this season, there isn’t much sample size for this iteration of the Pelicans with Ingram off the court, but in that limited time, Williamson has a 35.7% usage rate and is averaging 1.65 DraftKings and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute.
As reported by: Andrew Lopez via Twitter Kyle Lowry (neck) officially out Saturday
As expected, Lowry has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets due to neck whiplash he sustained towards the end of the third quarter in Friday’s win, while Marc Gasol remains sidelined for a sixth straight game with left hamstring tightness. Even though Lowry originally received the questionable designation, head coach Nick Nurse confirmed with reporters at his post-game press conference yesterday that Lowry was highly unlikely to play in tonight’s second leg of a back-to-back set. In his probable absence, Terence Davis is a candidate to join the starting lineup alongside Fred VanVleet in the backcourt, but even if he doesn’t start, he should have a relatively stable minute floor in tonight’s contest. On top of that, Davis has a 19.6% usage rate, a 22.2% assist rate, and is averaging 1.07 DraftKings and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute in a 270.9 minutes sample size with Lowry, Gasol, and Norman Powell off the court this season.
As reported by: Josh Lewenberg via Twitter T.J. Warren (concussion) will start Saturday
Warren has officially been upgraded from questionable and will start in Saturday’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans due to a concussion that has already forced him to miss three games, while Victor Oladipo will sit out the second leg of a back-to-back set for rest purposes. In Warren’s absence, Oladipo received his second start at the shooting guard position in Saturday’s loss, but he was still somewhat underwhelming for fantasy purposes in just under 28 minutes of action, whereas Aaron Holiday recorded only 12 minutes off the bench just one game removed from logging 21 minutes in Wednesday’s contest. Since Oladipo has only played five games this season, there isn’t much sample size for this iteration of the Pacers with him off the court, but in that limited time, Domantas Sabonis has a 26.6% usage rate, 24.7% assist rate, 18.7% rebound rate, and is averaging 1.29 DraftKings and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute.
As reported by: Scott Agness via Twitter D'Angelo Russell (quad) out Saturday
Russell has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers due to a right quad contusion, while James Johnson, Omari Spellman, and Jacob Evans are all available to make their Timberwolves debuts in tonight’s contest. There hasn’t been any indication from head coach Ryan Saunders or the team on who will start following the trade of Andrew Wiggins to the Warriors, but beat writers have speculated that the Timberwolves will roll with Jordan McLaughlin, Malik Beasley, and Juancho Hernangomez alongside incumbents Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Okogie this evening.
As reported by: Timberwolves PR via Twitter T.J. Warren (concussion) listed questionable Saturday
Warren has officially been listed as questionable for Saturday’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans due to a concussion that has already forced him to miss three games, while Victor Oladipo will sit out the second leg of a back-to-back set for rest purposes. In Warren’s absence, Oladipo received his second start at the shooting guard position in Saturday’s loss, but he was still somewhat underwhelming for fantasy purposes in just under 28 minutes of action, whereas Aaron Holiday recorded only 12 minutes off the bench just one game removed from logging 21 minutes in Wednesday’s contest. Since Oladipo has only played five games this season, there isn’t much sample size for this iteration of the Pacers with him off the court, but in that limited time, Domantas Sabonis has a 26.6% usage rate, 24.7% assist rate, 18.7% rebound rate, and is averaging 1.29 DraftKings and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Kyle Lowry (neck) listed questionable Saturday
Lowry has been listed as questionable on the initial Raptors’ injury report for Saturday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets due to neck whiplash he sustained towards the end of the third quarter in Friday’s win, while Marc Gasol remains sidelined for a sixth straight game with left hamstring tightness. Even though Lowry received a questionable designation, head coach Nick Nurse confirmed with reporters at his post-game press conference that Lowry was highly unlikely to play in tonight’s second leg of a back-to-back set. In his probable absence, Terence Davis is a candidate to join the starting lineup alongside Fred VanVleet in the backcourt, but even if he doesn’t start, he should have a relatively stable minute floor in tonight’s contest. On top of that, Davis has a 19.6% usage rate, a 22.2% assist rate, and is averaging 1.07 DraftKings and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute in a 270.9 minutes sample size with Lowry, Gasol, and Norman Powell off the court this season.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Kristaps Porzingis (knee) listed out Saturday
Porzingis has been listed out on the initial Mavericks’ injury report and won’t play in Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back against the Charlotte Hornets due to rest purposes, while Luka Doncic remains sidelined with a sprained right ankle and is aiming for a return sometime next week. Luckily, there is already a full game’s worth of data on how head coach Rick Carlise will likely utilize his rotation without Porzingis and Doncic available, as Maxi Kleber and Willie Cauley-Stein received the starts in the frontcourt in last Saturday’s win, and Kleber even led with Mavericks with a total of 30 minutes, whereas Cauley-Stein amassed just under 26 minutes of action in the contest. It comes as no surprise that several players see a substantial bump in usage with Porzingis, Doncic, and Dwight Powell off the court, as Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Seth Curry all have a minimum of a +5.5% increase in usage rate, while Finney-Smith and Kleber average at least +0.21 more fantasy points per minute over their normal season-long numbers.
As reported by: Tim MacMahon via Twitter Brandon Ingram (ankle) doubtful Saturday; Zion Williamson (ankle) questionable
Ingram has officially been downgraded from questionable to doubtful for Saturday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers due to a sprained right ankle, while Williamson is a new addition to the Pelicans injury report and will be a game-time decision with a sprained left ankle. Ingram sustained his injury midway through the third quarter of Thursday’s win, and he was replaced by Josh Hart, who went on to total just 26 minutes in relief because of the blowout nature of the contest. However, head coach Alvin Gentry typically prefers to keep Hart in a sixth-man role, which means J.J. Redick is probably the likeliest candidate to enter the starting lineup in Ingram’s likely absence this evening. Since Williamson has only played eight games this season, there isn’t much sample size for this iteration of the Pelicans with Ingram off the court, but in that limited time, Williamson has a 35.7% usage rate and is averaging 1.65 DraftKings and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute.
As reported by: the New Orleans Pelicans via Twitter Other tagged players: Zion Williamson Value Guard With New Role
There are a lot of moving parts here for Ky Bowman, but it’s setting up to be a spot where he could see a bigger role than we anticipate. The Warriors just gave Bowman a multi-year deal after trading away D’Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins, which is a good sign. One concern is that they did sign backup guards Zach Norvell and Jeremy Pargo so it’s not like they are short on guards, but Norvell was on a 10-day contract and Pargo is a 33 year old journeyman. I fully expect Bowman to see the bulk of point guard minutes until Stephen Curry returns, which isn’t anytime soon. Draymond Green is also questionable tonight, so if he should miss the game, that leaves the Warriors down another ball-handler. I think there are plenty of good value options tonight (ex: Terence Davis, Juancho Hernangomez, maybe Thon Maker if the Pistons are still down bodies), but Bowman is right up there for me depending on Green’s status and whether Wiggins suits up tonight.