DFS Alerts
Big Upside In This Matchup
Even though he has been a little banged up of late, this is still a player who has scored at least 47 FD points and 50 DK points in each of the last seven games that he has played. When he is on the floor, he is a beast to deal with. The Sixers also draw a favorable matchup against a Kings squad that ranks second in the league in tempo and in the bottom half in defensive efficiency. The Sacramento big men are no match for Embiid on the interior, and we could be looking at massive upside tonight in addition to the stable floor that Embiid provides. As long as the value end holds up, I will be starting cash game lineups with Harden and Embiid this evening.
Top Play of the Night
With Chris Paul likely to sit tonight, this is a no brainer. I don’t care that they are playing the Jazz. I don’t care that Harden remains expensive. It’s easy to forget what he did when Chris Paul was sidelined, but don’t make that mistake. Harden’s usage rises to over 45% with Paul off the floor. This is not a small sample size alert. This is simply a player who takes over when Chris Paul is not on the floor. The Houston offense runs in, around, and through James Harden. The DFS price tag has also stabilized now that Paul has been back, so we aren’t paying $14,000+ on FD, $13,000+ on DK, and $23,000+ on FDRAFT. Harden averaged a 44/9/8 line in the month of January. Even against the Jazz, Harden makes sense as the building block with which to start your cash game rosters tonight.
Gary Harris (groin) and Jamal Murray (ankle) listed out Saturday
Harris has been listed out on the most recent version of the Nuggets’ injury report and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to a sore right groin that’s now forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Jamal Murray will miss a fifth consecutive game with a sprained left ankle. In Harris’ absence, either Malik Beasley will likely remain in the starting lineup alongside Will Barton on the wing, and he’s coming off of a phenomenal fantasy performance in 41 minutes of action in Friday’s win. On top of that, Beasley and Nikola Jokic have actually been the main beneficiaries with Harris and Murray off the court this season, as they each own at least a +5.2% usage rate differential and experience a minimum increase of +0.13 to their per minute fantasy production. Additionally, Monte Morris should stick in the starting lineup for a third straight contest, and he’s put together a couple of tremendous fantasy outings in an average of 38.4 minutes per start.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Other tagged players: Jamal Murray
Chris Paul (rest) listed out Saturday
Paul has been listed out on the most recent version of the Rockets’ injury report and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Utah Jazz due to rest purposes on the second leg of a back-to-back set, while Nene is slated to return from his one-game absence for rest on the frontend of the aforementioned back-to-back. There’s been no confirmation from head coach Mike D’Antoni, but Nene could certainly start ahead of Kenneth Faried in order to better match up with Rudy Gobert on the defensive end of the floor. Still, Nene rarely approaches the 20-minute mark at this stage in his career, so Faried would still be needed to absorb close to the 30 minutes he’s logged in each of the Rockets’ last two games. Austin Rivers will almost certainly enter the starting lineup in place of Paul this evening, but James Harden continues to be the main beneficiary with Paul and Clint Capel off the court, as he owns a 49.7% usage rate (+6.5%) and is averaging 1.99 DraftKings and 1.92 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Derrick Rose (ankle) will try to play Saturday
Rose is still officially listed as questionable on the Timberwolves’ injury report, but he confirmed with reporters that he is going to try to play in Saturday’s matchup against the Denver Nuggets after missing three consecutive games due to a sore right ankle, while Jeff Teague will miss a sixth straight contest with a sore left foot. If Rose is limited, it’s possible that Jerryd Bayless sticks in the starting lineup at point guard for at least one additional game following his stretch of great fantasy performances in an average of 40.1 minutes over the previous three games. If Rose is able to see anywhere near his usual minute allotment, he’d be an intriguing tournament target, since he, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns all own at least a +3.5% usage rate differential and experience a minimum of a +0.10 increase to their per minute production with Teague and Robert Covington off the court.
As reported by: Chris Hine via Twitter Tyreke Evans (back) and Cory Joseph (groin) will play Saturday; Doug McDermott (rib) ruled out
Evans and Joseph have both officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Saturday’s matchup against the Miami Heat despite dealing with a sore lower back and strained left groin, respectively, while McDermott has been officially ruled out with a rib injury. The return of Evans from a three-game absence will presumably send Joseph back to the bench to resume a reserve role following his serviceable fantasy performance in 37 minutes of action in Thursday’s loss. Edmond Sumner also drew two starts while Evans was sidelined, and he’ll likely stick in the rotation for at least one additional game to absorb a portion of the minutes vacated by McDermott at the small forward position. Not only should Bojan Bogdanovic see a slight uptick in playing time without McDermott and Victor Oladipo, but he also owns a 25.6% usage rate (+4.2%) and is averaging 0.92 DraftKings and 0.88 FanDuel points per minute with them off the court this season.
As reported by: J. Michael via Twitter Other tagged players: Cory Joseph, Doug McDermott Zach LaVine (ankle) probable Saturday
LaVine has officially been upgraded to probable on the Bulls’ injury report and is likely to play in Saturday’s matchup against the Charlotte Hornets after missing one game due to a sprained right ankle, while Wayne Selden is also expected to play despite dealing with a sore right knee. The probable return of LaVine to the starting lineup will send Ryan Arcidiacano back to the bench following a solid fantasy outing in 34 minutes of action in Wednesday’s win. Meanwhile, Jabari Parker is away from the team tending to a personal matter, so Bobby Portis should theoretically see an uptick in playing time at power forward with Wendell Carter Jr. also still sidelined. Additionally, with Parker and Carter Jr. off the court, LaVine owns a 35.7% usage rate (+3.3%) and is averaging 1.23 DraftKings and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute
As reported by: K.C. Johnson via Twitter Luka Doncic (ankle) available to play Saturday
Doncic has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in Saturday’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers after missing one game due to a sore right ankle. Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee, and Trey Burke won’t make their Mavericks debut in tonight’s contest, and head coach Rick Carlisle already confirmed with reporters that Dallas will have 11 players available, including Doncic, this evening. Carlisle utilized a nine-man rotation in Thursday’s loss, and everyone outside of Dirk Nowitzki and Salah Mejri logged at least 23 minutes of action, including Ryan Broekhoff, who played 26 minutes off the bench. The Mavericks starting lineup for is a bit up in the air with Doncic set to return, but his presence will likely only demote Broekhoff out of meaningful rotation minutes. There’s not a huge sample size with the departed Mavericks off the court, but as expected, Doncic has been the main beneficiary in that limited time, as he owns a 34.8% usage rate (+5.0%) and is averaging 1.54 DraftKings and 1.49 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: Mark Followill via Twitter Jonathon Simmons (abdominal) out Saturday
Simmons has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets due to an abdominal strain that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. In his absence, Wes Iwundu entered the rotation following a stretch of four straight DNP-CDs and logged 16 minutes off the bench, while Isaiah Briscoe reclaimed the backup point guard role from Jerian Grant and saw 23 minutes of action at both guard positions in Thursday’s win. Meanwhile, Terrance Ross is coming off of a stellar fantasy performance in just 27 minutes in the aforementioned contest, and he owns a 24.7% usage rate and is averaging 0.91 DraftKings and 0.89 FanDuel points per minute with Simmons off the court this season.
As reported by: Josh Robbins via Twitter Cash Game Value; Monitor Injury Status
Cory Joseph is one of the players I’ll be monitoring closely on Saturday as he’s currently listed as Questionable with a groin injury. Joseph entered the Pacers starting lineup last game and would presumably draw the start against the Heat if he’s active. If active, Joseph is a strong cash game value despite a tough matchup against Miami. If Joseph is inactive, that would likely mean a starting role for Aaron Holiday who would then be a strong cash game value.
Other tagged players: Aaron Holiday
Underpriced for Starting Role
Monte Morris has started at PG for the Nuggets the last two games and has totaled over 42-fantasy points in each of the two contests. Jamal Murray is officially listed as questionable for Saturday night’s game against the Timberwolves but if he sits, Morris is once again one of the strongest point per dollar options on the slate. Morris remains significantly underpriced for a starting role.
Short Handed
Luka Doncic is expected back for Dallas but the Mavs will still be short handed when they battle the Cavs on Saturday night as none of the players they acquired from the Knicks are expected to suit up. That should mean healthy minutes for Maxi Kleber who found himself in foul trouble last game against the Pistons but was still able to log 29 minutes of court time. I have Kleber rated as one of the best values on the slate if he plays 29 minutes again but think he should be able to crack into the mid-30’s if he is able to stay out of foul trouble. It’s worth monitoring the Mavs starting lineup as Dwight Powell could draw the start over Salah Mejri. Powell is a strong value option regardless of if starting or playing off the bench.
Other tagged players: Dwight Powell New Year's Resolution
I made a New Year’s Resolution to play more Giannis and the Greek Freak couldn’t ask for a much better matchup than what he gets Saturday night. Washington has one of the worst defenses in the league as they allow the seventh most points per 100 possessions (112.1) and the fifth highest effective field goal percentage (54.6%). Once you factor in the Wizards’ eighth fastest pace in the league, Washington really struggles to hold opposing offenses in check.
Gary Harris (groin) officially out Friday
Harris has officially been downgraded from questionable, as expected, and won’t play in Friday’s matchup against the Houston Rockets due to a sore right groin, while Jamal Murray will miss a fourth consecutive game with a sprained left ankle. In Harris’ absence, either Torrey Craig or Malik Beasley will enter the starting lineup alongside Will Barton on the wing, though Beasley is the preferred option of the two in daily fantasy formats regardless of starting lineup. In fact, Beasley and Nikola Jokic have actually been the main beneficiaries with Harris and Murray off the court this season, as they each own at least a +5.0% usage rate differential and experience a minimum increase of +0.11 to their per minute fantasy production. Additionally, Monte Morris should stick in the starting lineup for a second straight contest following his phenomenal fantasy performance in 40 minutes of action in Wednesday’s win.
As reported by: the Denver Nuggets via Twitter Nene Hilario (rest) out Friday
Nene has officially been ruled out and won’t play in Friday’s matchup against the Denver Nuggets due to rest purposes on the front end of the Rockets’ current back-to-back set, while Chris Paul was previously cleared to play despite dealing with a sore back and a sore groin, though he’ll likely be rested for the tilt against the Utah Jazz on Saturday evening. Nene was supposed to serve as the primary center in the absence of Clint Capela, but the emergence of Kenneth Faried has limited him to 12 minutes or fewer in each of his last four games. As for Paul, he’s been limited to roughly 25 minutes per game in his first two contests since returning from a lengthy injury hiatus due to a strained left hamstring, but head coach Mike D’Antoni did state that Paul would see his minutes increased this evening. The presence of Paul hasn’t managed to slow down James Harden, as he’s still recorded a 44.1% usage rate and is averaging 1.85 DraftKings and 1.83 FanDuel points per minute over the previous two games.
As reported by: Jonathan Feigen via Twitter