DFS Alerts

Near Min-Priced, Low-Owned Option

Credit for CheifJustice for pointing out Holiday to me. He hasn’t really been great in his time with Memphis, but lately he has turned it on a little bit. In his last three games he has played 38, 30, and 36 minutes and has scored 19.75, 19, and 32.5 points in those matchups. While he’s generally not a high point per minute guy (averages .72 on the season) he was priced around $5K in a similar role with the Bulls just a month ago. He draws a matchup against the Hornets, who rank 23rd in DvA, 16th in DEFF, and 18th in DRPM. In the last two matchups vs. SFs, Charlotte has given up 30 points to Bogdanovic and 36 points to Oubre. This sets up as a great spot for Holiday to go for 30 points here at near min price.

The Chalk Cheapie

I’m not going to spend too much time on this because Rozier is going to be chalkly and the reasons are obvious. He gets a matchup against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Every single time Kyrie gets ruled out and the sites haven’t had time to price up Rozier, he’s one of the best plays on the board. He should push for around 30 minutes here and averages around a point per minute with Kyrie off the floor. The only reason to not play Rozier in this spot is ownership, but if he goes for a 40 point game here you’re likely drawing dead.

Kevin Huerter (neck) downgraded to doubtful Wednesday

Huerter has officially been downgraded from questionable to doubtful for Wednesday’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls due to a sore neck that forced him to be a late scratch from the Hawks lineup prior to Monday’s loss. In his absence, Taurean Prince ended up receiving the starting nod at small forward but was relatively disappointing from a fantasy perspective in 25 minutes of action, while Daniel Hamilton into Prince’s vacated role of the bench and logged 16 minutes with the second unit. Despite the disappointing outing, Prince will be in a tremendous position as a bounce-back candidate in tournament formats on tonight’s slate, as he owns a 25.2% usage rate and is averaging 1.05 DraftKings and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute with Kent Bazemore and Miles Plumlee off the court, adding to his appeal if he manages to have his minutes increased for a fourth straight contest.

Kyrie Irving (illness) out Wednesday

Irving is a new addition to the Celtics’ injury report and won’t play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers due to an illness, while Al Horford was already ruled out for rest purposes despite Boston not scheduled to play again until Saturday evening. Aron Baynes should replace Horford in the starting lineup, but head coach Brad Stevens has typically opted for a center by committee approach in his absence, as Baynes, Daniel Theis, and Robert Williams all have gotten significant playing time in those contests. With Irving now unavailable, Terry Rozier will almost certainly draw the start at point guard, and he’s averaged 30.6 minutes as a starter in the five games Irving has been sidelined this season. While Rozier is the main beneficiary in terms of minutes sans Irving, it’s actually been Marcus Morris that’s thrived from a fantasy perspective with Irving and Horford off the court, as he owns a 27.8% usage rate (+5.2%) and is averaging 1.20 DraftKings and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute in a 275.8 minutes sample size.

NBA Injury Rundown - Wednesday, 1/23

Toronto Raptors – Kawhi Leonard (O), OG Anunoby (O), Jonas Valanciunas (O)

Los Angeles Clippers – Danilo Gallinari (O), Luc Mbah a Moute (O)

Houston Rockets – Clint Capela (O), Brandon Knight (O), Chris Paul (O)

New York Knicks – Luke Kornet (O), Kristaps Porzingis (O)

Cleveland Cavaliers – Tristan Thompson (O), Larry Nance (O), David Nwaba (O), Kevin Love (O), John Henson (O)

Boston Celtics – Al Horford (O)

San Antonio Spurs – Davis Bertans (O), Dejounte Murray (O)

Philadelphia 76ers – Ben Simmons (Q), Jimmy Butler (Q), Markelle Fultz (O), Zhaire Smith (O), Justin Patton (O)

Atlanta Hawks – Kevin Huerter (Q), Kent Bazemore (O), Miles Plumlee (O)

Detroit Pistons – Andre Drummond (Q), Henry Ellenson (Q), Ish Smith (D)

New Orleans Pelicans – Anthony Davis (O)

Memphis Grizzlies – Garrett Temple (P), Marc Gasol (Q), Joakim Noah (D), Kyle Anderson (O), Dillon Brooks (O)

Denver Nuggets – Juancho Hernangomez (Q), Jarred Vanderbilt (Q), Isaiah Thomas (O), Michael Porter Jr. (O)

Utah Jazz – Dante Exum (O), Raul Neto (O), Thabo Sefolosha (O), Tony Bradley (O)

Jeff Teague (foot) out Tuesday

Teague has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns due to left foot soreness. Head coach Ryan Saunders originally stated at shootaround that Teague was also still battling an illness that limited him to 24 minutes in Sunday’s win, so the news of his unavailability os far from surprising. With Teague dealing with multiple ailments and Tyus Jones already ruled out, Derrick Rose will almost certainly draw the start at point guard, and he’s coming off of a stellar fantasy outing in 38 minutes of action off the bench in the Timberwolves previous game. Anytime Minnesota has been without multiple backcourt members, Josh Okogie has seen his minutes increase over the 30-minute plateau, which makes him a viable value option on tonight’s four-game slate. Still, Rose has been the clear beneficiary with Teague, Covington, and Jones off the court, albeit a limited sample size, as he owns a 38.1% usage rate and is averaging 1.48 DraftKings and 1.47 FanDuel points per minute

Lou Williams (hamstring) will play Tuesday

Williams has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks after missing two consecutive games due to a sore right hamstring. Head coach Doc Rivers already confirmed that Williams will be subject to a minutes restriction off the bench, but his presence in the rotation will still cut into the playing time of Patrick Beverley and the other members of the Clippers backcourt. Meanwhile, the Clippers are expected to be without Danilo Gallinari for the remainder of their road trip, which should allow Beverley to draw another start alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the backcourt after Beverley obliterated his salary-based expectations in 42 minutes of action in Sunday’s win. This lineup combination will enable Tobias Harris to slide down to power forward, and he’s thrived with Gallinari off the court this season, as he owns a 25.4% usage rate and is averaging 1.31 DraftKings and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.

De'Aaron Fox (toe) and Nemanja Bjelica (back) out Tuesday

Fox and Bjelica have both officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors due to the respective ailments they sustained during Monday’s loss, while Iman Shumpert was already ruled out for rest purposes on the second leg of a back-to-back set. This news isn’t particularly surprising given head coach Dave Joerger’s recent comments about resting fatigued players, and he’ll likely opt to start Yogi Ferrell at point guard and either Justin Jackson or Marvin Bagley III at power forward, though Jackson has started the second half in place of Bjelica in each of the previous two games. With Shumpert unavailable, Bogdan Bogdanovic will almost certainly draw the start at small forward in his place, and he’s averaged 30.1 minutes per game when Shumpert has been sidelined this season. On top of that, Bogdanovic owns a 29.6% usage rate (+4.4%) and is averaging 1.16 DraftKings and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute with Fox and Shumpert off the court.

Iman Shumpert (rest) listed out Tuesday; De'Aaron Fox (toe) and Nemanja Bjelica (back) listed as questionable

Shumpert has been listed out on the most recent version of the Kings’ injury report and won’t play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors due to rest purposes on the second leg of a back-to-back set, while Fox and Bjelica are listed as questionable with ailments they sustained during Monday’s loss. Despite the questionable designations, there have been hints from head coach Dave Joerger that he’d like to rest Fox in an upcoming game, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if Fox is eventually ruled out closer to tipoff. With Shumpert unavailable, Bogdan Bogdanovic will almost certainly draw the start at small forward in his place, and he’s averaged 30.1 minutes per game when Shumpert has been sidelined this season. On top of that, Bogdanovic owns a 29.6% usage rate (+4.4%) and is averaging 1.16 DraftKings and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute with Fox and Shumpert off the court.

Jeff Teague (ankle) questionable Tuesday

Teague is a new addition to the Timberwolves’ injury report is questionable for Tuesday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns due to left ankle inflammation. Head coach Ryan Saunders originally stated at shootaround that Teague was still battling an illness that limited him to 24 minutes in Sunday’s win and his status had yet to be determined for tonight’s contest. With Teague dealing with multiple ailments and Tyus Jones already ruled out, it’s beginning to seem likely that Derrick Rose will draw the start at point guard, and he’s coming off of a stellar fantasy outing in 38 minutes of action off the bench in the Timberwolves previous game. Anytime Minnesota has been without multiple backcourt members, Josh Okogie has seen his minutes increase over the 30-minute plateau, which would make him a viable value option on tonight’s four-game slate. Still, Rose has been the clear beneficiary with Teague, Covington, and Jones off the court, albeit a limited sample size, as he owns a 38.1% usage rate and is averaging 1.48 DraftKings and 1.47 FanDuel points per minute

Kawhi Leonard (rest) listed out Tuesday

Leonard has been listed out on the most recent version of the Raptors’ injury report and won’t play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings as part of his typical load management plan on the first leg of a back-to-back set, marking the third consecutive game he has missed for rest purposes. The Raptors are still without OG Anunoby and Jonas Valanciunas, so with Leonard still being held out, Fred VanVleet will likely start alongside Kyle Lowry in the backcourt once again following a couple of respectable fantasy outings in an average of 28.7 minutes over his previous two spot starts. Unsurprisingly, Lowry and Serge Ibaka have been the main beneficiaries with Leonard, Anunoby, and Jonas Valanciunas off the court this season, as they each own at least a +3.2% usage rate differential and see a minimum of a +0.20 increase in their per minute fantasy production.

Thinned Out Rotation

A thinned out front court rotation means more solidified minutes at the 4 for T.J. Warren who logged 38 minutes of action against the Timberwolves on Sunday. Warren has been a point per minute fantasy producer this season and should see a modest increase in his rebounding rate without Deandre Ayton on the court. Warren is a bit underpriced for life without Deandre Ayton and will be playing in one of the best game environments of the night.

Cash Game Value

With Deandre Ayton already declared out and Richaun Holmes unlikely to play, Dragan Bender has already been declared a starter for Tuesday night’s game against the Timberwolves. Bender started in this exact same spot on Sunday and posted a strong 12/10 line in 29 minutes of action. Bender hasn’t been the strongest fantasy producer when given minutes but still rates as one of the top cash game values on a slate that doesn’t have a whole lot of value at $4K or less.

Deandre Ayton (ankle) and Richaun Holmes (foot) out Tuesday

Ayton has officially been downgraded from doubtful and won’t play in Tuesday’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to a sprained left ankle that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Holmes will sit for a second straight contest because of a sprained left foot. Head coach Igor Kokoskov already confirmed that Dragan Bender will draw another start center in their absences following his stellar fantasy performance in 29 minutes of action in Sunday’s loss. Acy had played between 8-10 minutes off the bench in five of his first six games as a member of the Suns, but he played well behind Bender in the center rotation despite being the better fantasy producer on a per minute basis. Additionally, Devin Booker owns a 33.7% usage rate and is averaging 1.22 DraftKings and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the last month, but he continues to struggle to find consistency since returning from a three-game injury absence stemming from back spasms.

The Pivot If Leonard Is Out

We suddenly have news that Kawhi Leonard is questionable for tonight’s game, and the Raptors might simply hold him out because they are facing the Kings. In any case, we need to keep a close eye on this. If Kawhi is out again, expect Fred VanVleet to continue to start, but his usage is more hit-or-miss when Kyle Lowry is active. The big beneficiaries in terms of production this year have been Serge Ibaka and Lowry, who both see usages bumps of over 4% with solid production increases when Leonard is off the floor. Ibaka will squarely land in my GPP pool on a short slate if that is the case, as he should feast against the feeble Kings.